Nobel d’économie: intelligence artificielle ou écart de richesse pour clore la saison 2025

Créé à la mémoire d’Alfred Nobel, le prix d’économie boucle lundi la saison 2025 des fameuses récompenses et pourrait primer l’économie comportementale, à moins que des recherches sur l’intelligence artificielle ou les inégalités n’emportent la faveur du jury, selon les experts consultés par l’AFP.Le nom du ou des heureux élus – le prix d’économie est souvent attribué collégialement – sera rendu public à partir de 11H45 (09H45 GMT) à l’Académie des sciences à Stockholm.Il succédera à un trio de chercheurs basé aux Etats-Unis et récompensé l’an dernier pour des recherches sur les disparités de richesses entre pays, l’Américano-turc Daron Acemoglu et les Britanno-américains Simon Johnson et James A. Robinson.Prédire le futur lauréat n’a rien d’une science exacte mais nombreux sont ceux qui établissent une feuille de route pour tenter de l’identifier, le processus de nomination et de sélection étant secret.Pour Micael Dahlén, professeur à l’Ecole de commerce de Stockholm, il faut regarder du côté des disciplines économiques primées par le passé.”L’économie de l’information est bien placée, le dernier prix la récompensant date de 2016″, avec la théorie du contrat, qui étudie les relations d’échange entre des agents économiques, en tenant compte des contraintes d’information, estime-t-il.”Ces dernières années, notamment avec l’IA, le domaine est devenu très pertinent. Un candidat fort est Erik Brynjolfsson (Etats-Unis). Un autre candidat intéressant est Monika Schnitzer (Allemagne) dans le domaine de l’économie internationale”, a-t-il dit à l’AFP.En la matière, le comité Nobel pourrait aussi distinguer l’Américaine Susan Athey qui explore comment les nouvelles technologies transforment les marchés et les politiques publiques, explique Mikael Carlsson, de l’université d’Uppsala.- Trois lauréates seulement -Les femmes sont notablement peu nombreuses – trois seulement sur 96 lauréats – dans le palmarès du prix. La parité, si elle n’intervient pas directement dans le processus de sélection, reste une préoccupation sous-jacente.”Personne n’est insensible à la manière dont les décisions sont comprises”, dit Magnus Henrekson, de l’Institut de recherche en économie industrielle de Stockholm. L’édition 2025 des prix Nobel a couronné deux femmes, l’Américaine Mary Brunkow, colauréate du prix de médecine, et la cheffe de l’opposition vénézuélienne Maria Corina Machado pour la paix.Seul à ne pas avoir été prévu dans le testament d’Alfred Nobel, le prix d’économie a été créé par la Banque centrale suédoise “à la mémoire” de l’inventeur. Il s’est ajouté en 1969 aux cinq traditionnelles récompenses (médecine, physique, chimie, littérature et paix), lui valant chez ses détracteurs le sobriquet de “faux Nobel”.  “S’il avait rédigé son testament aujourd’hui, je pense que les sciences économiques seraient incluses tant elles sont importantes pour notre compréhension des événements mondiaux et pour la façon dont nous pouvons améliorer nos sociétés”, a assuré M. Dahlén.Le millésime 2025 pourrait primer des économistes qui travaillent sur les inégalités de richesse, Emmanuel Saez (France/Etats-Unis) et Thomas Piketty (France), estime l’Université de Göteborg.”Leurs comparaisons internationales et bases de données ouvertes ont rendu le débat plus factuel et renforcé la compréhension de la manière dont différents systèmes fiscaux peuvent réduire les inégalités sans freiner le développement économique”, a indiqué Olof Johansson Stenman dans une analyse. Gabriel Zucman (France) pourrait aussi leur être associé si sa récente notoriété ne rebute pas la discrète Académie des sciences qui attribue le prix. “Ca peut (la) dissuader”, croit savoir Magnus Henrekson.Gabriel Zucman a reçu en 2023 la médaille John Bates Clark, récompense considérée par des commentateurs avisés comme annonciatrice du Nobel, 17% des lauréats l’ayant reçue.Parmi les autres candidats possibles, les experts mettent en avant les noms de la Belge Marianne Bertrand, spécialiste des discriminations évoquée par l’Institut Clarivate, du Suisse Ernst Fehr, spécialisé dans l’économie comportementale et la neuroéconomie, qui pourrait le partager avec les Américains George Loewenstein et Colin Camerer, ainsi que ceux du Japonais Nobuhiro Kiyotaki et du Britannique John H. Moore, pour leurs travaux sur les impacts des frictions financières sur les cycles économiques, et de l’Américain Robert Barro pour ses recherches sur la croissance.Les lauréats reçoivent un chèque de 11 millions de couronnes (un million d’euros), à partager en cas de multiples gagnants.

Nobel d’économie: intelligence artificielle ou écart de richesse pour clore la saison 2025

Créé à la mémoire d’Alfred Nobel, le prix d’économie boucle lundi la saison 2025 des fameuses récompenses et pourrait primer l’économie comportementale, à moins que des recherches sur l’intelligence artificielle ou les inégalités n’emportent la faveur du jury, selon les experts consultés par l’AFP.Le nom du ou des heureux élus – le prix d’économie est souvent attribué collégialement – sera rendu public à partir de 11H45 (09H45 GMT) à l’Académie des sciences à Stockholm.Il succédera à un trio de chercheurs basé aux Etats-Unis et récompensé l’an dernier pour des recherches sur les disparités de richesses entre pays, l’Américano-turc Daron Acemoglu et les Britanno-américains Simon Johnson et James A. Robinson.Prédire le futur lauréat n’a rien d’une science exacte mais nombreux sont ceux qui établissent une feuille de route pour tenter de l’identifier, le processus de nomination et de sélection étant secret.Pour Micael Dahlén, professeur à l’Ecole de commerce de Stockholm, il faut regarder du côté des disciplines économiques primées par le passé.”L’économie de l’information est bien placée, le dernier prix la récompensant date de 2016″, avec la théorie du contrat, qui étudie les relations d’échange entre des agents économiques, en tenant compte des contraintes d’information, estime-t-il.”Ces dernières années, notamment avec l’IA, le domaine est devenu très pertinent. Un candidat fort est Erik Brynjolfsson (Etats-Unis). Un autre candidat intéressant est Monika Schnitzer (Allemagne) dans le domaine de l’économie internationale”, a-t-il dit à l’AFP.En la matière, le comité Nobel pourrait aussi distinguer l’Américaine Susan Athey qui explore comment les nouvelles technologies transforment les marchés et les politiques publiques, explique Mikael Carlsson, de l’université d’Uppsala.- Trois lauréates seulement -Les femmes sont notablement peu nombreuses – trois seulement sur 96 lauréats – dans le palmarès du prix. La parité, si elle n’intervient pas directement dans le processus de sélection, reste une préoccupation sous-jacente.”Personne n’est insensible à la manière dont les décisions sont comprises”, dit Magnus Henrekson, de l’Institut de recherche en économie industrielle de Stockholm. L’édition 2025 des prix Nobel a couronné deux femmes, l’Américaine Mary Brunkow, colauréate du prix de médecine, et la cheffe de l’opposition vénézuélienne Maria Corina Machado pour la paix.Seul à ne pas avoir été prévu dans le testament d’Alfred Nobel, le prix d’économie a été créé par la Banque centrale suédoise “à la mémoire” de l’inventeur. Il s’est ajouté en 1969 aux cinq traditionnelles récompenses (médecine, physique, chimie, littérature et paix), lui valant chez ses détracteurs le sobriquet de “faux Nobel”.  “S’il avait rédigé son testament aujourd’hui, je pense que les sciences économiques seraient incluses tant elles sont importantes pour notre compréhension des événements mondiaux et pour la façon dont nous pouvons améliorer nos sociétés”, a assuré M. Dahlén.Le millésime 2025 pourrait primer des économistes qui travaillent sur les inégalités de richesse, Emmanuel Saez (France/Etats-Unis) et Thomas Piketty (France), estime l’Université de Göteborg.”Leurs comparaisons internationales et bases de données ouvertes ont rendu le débat plus factuel et renforcé la compréhension de la manière dont différents systèmes fiscaux peuvent réduire les inégalités sans freiner le développement économique”, a indiqué Olof Johansson Stenman dans une analyse. Gabriel Zucman (France) pourrait aussi leur être associé si sa récente notoriété ne rebute pas la discrète Académie des sciences qui attribue le prix. “Ca peut (la) dissuader”, croit savoir Magnus Henrekson.Gabriel Zucman a reçu en 2023 la médaille John Bates Clark, récompense considérée par des commentateurs avisés comme annonciatrice du Nobel, 17% des lauréats l’ayant reçue.Parmi les autres candidats possibles, les experts mettent en avant les noms de la Belge Marianne Bertrand, spécialiste des discriminations évoquée par l’Institut Clarivate, du Suisse Ernst Fehr, spécialisé dans l’économie comportementale et la neuroéconomie, qui pourrait le partager avec les Américains George Loewenstein et Colin Camerer, ainsi que ceux du Japonais Nobuhiro Kiyotaki et du Britannique John H. Moore, pour leurs travaux sur les impacts des frictions financières sur les cycles économiques, et de l’Américain Robert Barro pour ses recherches sur la croissance.Les lauréats reçoivent un chèque de 11 millions de couronnes (un million d’euros), à partager en cas de multiples gagnants.

Le préfet de police de Paris Laurent Nuñez nommé à l’Intérieur

Homme de terrain, consensuel et fin connaisseur du monde policier, Laurent Nuñez, qui occupe le prestigieux poste de préfet de police de Paris depuis 2022, est devenu dimanche le premier “flic de France” en succédant à Bruno Retailleau au ministère de l’Intérieur.Parmi les grands défis qui attendent le nouveau locataire de la place Beauvau figurent la lutte contre le narcotrafic, la menace terroriste, toujours élevée, ou le manque de moyens pour la filière investigations dénoncé cette semaine par des syndicats.”J’ai conscience des attentes fortes” des Français “et je me consacrerai totalement à cette tâche”, a-t-il promis sur X dimanche soir après l’annonce du gouvernement.”Dans cette période instable, sa nomination est rassurante et incarne le pragmatisme”, a réagi auprès de l’AFP Linda Kebbab, secrétaire nationale d’Un1té (FO), saluant sa “bonne maîtrise des dossiers techniques, autant RH qu’opérationnel”. “Il lui reste un défi à relever: l’investigation. Entre rythme de travail, recrutement et reconnaissance des enquêteurs, il y a urgence”, a-t-elle ajouté.”C’est un gage de stabilité, il connaît les dossiers en cours, c’est une bonne chose car les attentes sont fortes et il aura peu de répit”, a estimé auprès de l’AFP Yohan Maras du syndicat Alliance Police nationale. “Espérons qu’il reste plus d’une semaine !”.Une source proche le décrit comme “un grand serviteur de l’Etat” qui “connait par cœur ses dossiers”. “Rassembleur”, il a pour “boussole” “les valeurs républicaines et l’Etat fort”. Au ministère, il entend lutter “contre l’entrisme qui ne manquera pas d’être une question à l’approche de la constitution des listes” pour les élections municipales, selon la même source.Le nom de ce proche d’Emmanuel Macron avait déjà circulé pour occuper ce ministère régalien, qu’il a déjà connu en tant que secrétaire d’Etat entre 2018 et 2020.Laurent Nuñez, 61 ans, aura passé un peu plus de trois ans à la tête de la préfecture de police de Paris, l’un des postes les plus prestigieux et stratégiques de la République.L’organisation des Jeux olympiques et paralympiques à l’été 2024 lui a valu d’être élevé au rang de commandeur de la Légion d’honneur. Lors d’une cérémonie en septembre, Emmanuel Macron a loué ce “maître d’œuvre de la sécurisation de tant de sites” et notamment de la cérémonie d’ouverture, qui a “ébloui le monde”, malgré les menaces.Auparavant, Laurent Nuñez, qui s’est démarqué de son prédécesseur Didier Lallement dans sa gestion du maintien de l’ordre, a dû gérer la succession de manifestations contre la réforme des retraites au printemps 2023, souvent émaillées d’incidents.Face aux accusations de violences et de propos menaçants visant des membres de la Brav-M, des policiers d’intervention motorisés, il avait refusé que “le comportement de quelques individus ne (jette) l’opprobre sur toute une unité”.Il a également été confronté aux émeutes après la mort de Nahel, un jeune homme de 17 ans tué par le tir d’un policier fin juin 2023. – “L’expert” -Le préfet de police a aussi été confronté à des polémiques sur le dispositif sécuritaire lors notamment de la visite d’Emmanuel Macron au Salon de l’agriculture en février 2024, qui avait tourné au fiasco, et de la victoire du PSG en finale de la Ligue des champions en mai, suivie d’incidents et de dégradations.Plus récemment, le haut fonctionnaire a pu se féliciter que les journées d’action “Bloquons tout” le 10 septembre et de mobilisation sociale les 18 septembre et 2 octobre se soient déroulées sans incident notable.Ancien inspecteur des impôts passé par l’ENA, il a intégré le ministère de l’Intérieur en 1999. Sous-préfet de Bayonne, il a suivi les affaires basques (2010-2012) après avoir été directeur de cabinet du préfet de Seine-Saint-Denis (2008-2010).De 2015 à 2017, il a occupé le poste sensible de préfet de police des Bouches-du-Rhône. Avant de piloter brièvement (de 2017 à 2018) la Direction générale de la sécurité intérieure (DGSI), il avait été pressenti pour prendre la tête de la direction générale de la police nationale (DGPN).En octobre 2018, il franchit le Rubicon entre la haute fonction publique et la politique en devenant secrétaire d’Etat à l’Intérieur auprès du ministre Christophe Castaner.Dans ce duo, il incarnait “l’expert”, “l’homme des dossiers”, mais derrière le spécialiste des questions de sécurité pointait un amoureux du “terrain” qui avait pris goût à la politique.Après son départ de Beauvau, Laurent Nuñez a rebondi à l’Elysée auprès du chef de l’Etat pour coordonner la “task force” contre le terrorisme. C’est Emmanuel Macron qui l’a choisi pour la préfecture de police en juillet 2022, même si la nomination est faite sur proposition du ministre de l’Intérieur, faisant de lui l’homme le mieux renseigné de la capitale.

In bid to save shipyards, US set to charge fees on Chinese ships

An escalating trade war between China and the United States faces another flashpoint Tuesday when Chinese ships will be required to start paying a special fee to dock at US ports.The move announced by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in April triggered reciprocal measures from Beijing, which will impose similar costs on US ships starting the same day.The tit-for-tat levies are just the latest in a series of disputes between the world’s two largest economic powers that have roiled financial markets and heightened fears of major disruption to the global economy.President Donald Trump massively upped the ante last week when he announced an additional 100 percent tariff on China and threatened to cancel a summit with Xi Jinping in retaliation for Chinese export curbs on rare earth minerals.The stated purpose of the US port fees is to address Chinese dominance of the global shipping sector and provide an incentive for building more ships in the United States.The non-partisan Alliance for American Manufacturing has called for the funds raised through the fees to be used in building up a new Maritime Security Fund.”The unfair economic practices of China present a sizeable obstacle to revitalizing shipbuilding in the United States,” the alliance said in a petition supporting proposed legislation aimed at developing the sector.  – A fading industry -According to the USTR, the port fee will be charged for each visit to the United States, a maximum of five times per ship per year.Chinese-made ships will pay $18 per net ton — or $120 per container — with an increase of $5 per year for the following three years.Vessels owned or operated by Chinese citizens, but not manufactured in China, will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of an additional $30 for the next three years.The United States is trying to boost a domestic industry that now represents only 0.1 percent of global shipbuilding.The Trump administration also sees US shipbuilding as tied to national security, given that China leads the world in ship manufacturing. In 2024, former president Joe Biden had tasked the USTR with an investigation to identify “China’s unfair practices in the shipbuilding, shipping, and logistics sectors.”His successor has kept up that focus. In March, Trump announced the creation of a White House Office of Shipbuilding with the aim of reviving that sector of US manufacturing. – Blow for blow -On Friday, Beijing fired back. As of Tuesday, the Chinese government announced, all ships manufactured in the United States or linked to an American company would have to pay “special” duties to dock at ports in China.They would be required to pay 400 yuan (56 dollars) per net ton, then 640 yuan (90 dollars) in April 2026, before further annual increases.”That’s a problem when you’re beholden to a global supply chain that you have no control over, that’s a national security risk,” Matt Paxton, president of the Shipbuilders Council of America (SCA), which represents more than 150 US shipbuilding companies, told AFP.”We don’t want to be wholly dependent on communist-controlled state enterprises,” Paxton said, alluding to China.Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has been working to recreate a thriving industrial base in the United States, notably by imposing sometimes prohibitive tariffs.As a result, many foreign and American companies have announced astronomical investments — worth trillions, according to the White House — in their factories and other sites on American soil.Paxton mentioned “a strong interest” in US-built ships, citing contacts from South Korea, China, Japan, Canada, and others.Many US shipyards are not operating at full capacity and have disabled dry docks, he said.In addition to increased foreign demand, the shipbuilding industry is also happy about the Trump administration’s goal of building 250 ships for the commercial fleet and the $50 billion budget for the Coast Guard and the Navy.”It’s very encouraging,” said Paxton. “It’s a historical moment.”

In bid to save shipyards, US set to charge fees on Chinese ships

An escalating trade war between China and the United States faces another flashpoint Tuesday when Chinese ships will be required to start paying a special fee to dock at US ports.The move announced by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in April triggered reciprocal measures from Beijing, which will impose similar costs on US ships starting the same day.The tit-for-tat levies are just the latest in a series of disputes between the world’s two largest economic powers that have roiled financial markets and heightened fears of major disruption to the global economy.President Donald Trump massively upped the ante last week when he announced an additional 100 percent tariff on China and threatened to cancel a summit with Xi Jinping in retaliation for Chinese export curbs on rare earth minerals.The stated purpose of the US port fees is to address Chinese dominance of the global shipping sector and provide an incentive for building more ships in the United States.The non-partisan Alliance for American Manufacturing has called for the funds raised through the fees to be used in building up a new Maritime Security Fund.”The unfair economic practices of China present a sizeable obstacle to revitalizing shipbuilding in the United States,” the alliance said in a petition supporting proposed legislation aimed at developing the sector.  – A fading industry -According to the USTR, the port fee will be charged for each visit to the United States, a maximum of five times per ship per year.Chinese-made ships will pay $18 per net ton — or $120 per container — with an increase of $5 per year for the following three years.Vessels owned or operated by Chinese citizens, but not manufactured in China, will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of an additional $30 for the next three years.The United States is trying to boost a domestic industry that now represents only 0.1 percent of global shipbuilding.The Trump administration also sees US shipbuilding as tied to national security, given that China leads the world in ship manufacturing. In 2024, former president Joe Biden had tasked the USTR with an investigation to identify “China’s unfair practices in the shipbuilding, shipping, and logistics sectors.”His successor has kept up that focus. In March, Trump announced the creation of a White House Office of Shipbuilding with the aim of reviving that sector of US manufacturing. – Blow for blow -On Friday, Beijing fired back. As of Tuesday, the Chinese government announced, all ships manufactured in the United States or linked to an American company would have to pay “special” duties to dock at ports in China.They would be required to pay 400 yuan (56 dollars) per net ton, then 640 yuan (90 dollars) in April 2026, before further annual increases.”That’s a problem when you’re beholden to a global supply chain that you have no control over, that’s a national security risk,” Matt Paxton, president of the Shipbuilders Council of America (SCA), which represents more than 150 US shipbuilding companies, told AFP.”We don’t want to be wholly dependent on communist-controlled state enterprises,” Paxton said, alluding to China.Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has been working to recreate a thriving industrial base in the United States, notably by imposing sometimes prohibitive tariffs.As a result, many foreign and American companies have announced astronomical investments — worth trillions, according to the White House — in their factories and other sites on American soil.Paxton mentioned “a strong interest” in US-built ships, citing contacts from South Korea, China, Japan, Canada, and others.Many US shipyards are not operating at full capacity and have disabled dry docks, he said.In addition to increased foreign demand, the shipbuilding industry is also happy about the Trump administration’s goal of building 250 ships for the commercial fleet and the $50 billion budget for the Coast Guard and the Navy.”It’s very encouraging,” said Paxton. “It’s a historical moment.”

US soybean farmers battered by trade row with China

The US soybean harvest is underway and in rural Maryland, farmer Travis Hutchison cracks open a pod to show how a field is nearly dry enough for reaping.But a decent yield is not enough to secure his income this year — with China, once the biggest buyer of US soybean exports, halting orders in a trade row triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs.Soybean prices “are really depressed because of the trade war,” Hutchison told AFP. His family tills 3,400 acres of soybeans, corn and other crops.”I wasn’t against the president trying it, because I think we needed better trade deals,” added the 54-year-old of Trump’s policies.But he expressed disappointment at how things played out: “I was hoping it would get resolved sooner.”Hutchison is among American farmers — a key support base for Trump — reeling from the trade impasse.The world’s second biggest economy in 2024 bought more than half the $24.5 billion in US soybean exports.But exports to China have fallen by over 50 percent in value this year, and Chinese buyers have held off on new soybean orders from the US autumn harvest.With lower demand, soybean prices are down about 40 percent from three years ago.This comes as American soybeans have become pricier for Chinese buyers.As Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese products in his second presidency, Beijing’s counter-duties on US soybeans rose to 20 percent.This makes them “prohibitively more expensive” than exports from South America, where US farmers face growing competition, said the American Soybean Association (ASA).Last month, Argentina suspended its export tax on key crops like soybeans, making them more attractive to Chinese buyers too.Trump vowed to tap tariff revenues to help US farmers but has not provided details, while prospects of a longer-term deal appear more distant than ever.On Friday, Trump promised additional 100-percent tariffs targeting China and threatened to scrap talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping over Beijing’s rare earth industry export curbs.ASA president Caleb Ragland said the group had hoped top-level talks would restore soybean exports to China.”These latest developments are deeply disappointing at a moment when soybean farmers are facing an ever-growing financial crisis,” he said.- ‘Band-aid’ -Hutchison, whose family has been farming in Cordova for generations, acknowledges that farmers are easy targets in trade spats.But a government bailout is a “band-aid” rather than a long-term solution, he said.”I’m glad that he’s thinking of us,” Hutchison added, referring to Trump.But securing a reliable trading partner is more important: “We’re in the farming game for the long term.”Time is limited, as China’s soybean purchasing window from the United States usually runs from October through January, said farmer David Burrier, based in Union Bridge, Maryland.”This year’s going to be a very, very tough year,” he told AFP. “40 percent of our acres are probably going to be breakeven or under breakeven.”Burrier said it would be a “four-alarm fire” if China stopped soybean purchases for good.ASA chief economist Scott Gerlt warned the situation is especially harsh in Midwestern states like North and South Dakota.There, the soybean industry is built up around exporting to the Pacific Northwest and subsequently to China.They are hard-hit if they run out of storage and cannot ship their harvests out.- Worse than 2018 -Gerlt said farmers have it harder than in 2018, when they were also caught in Washington and Beijing’s tariffs war.From 2018 to 2019, retaliatory tariffs caused over $27 billion in US agriculture export losses. The government provided $23 billion to help farmers hit by trade disputes.But they enter this trade war under greater financial stress, Gerlt said.Crop revenues are lower, yet costs for everything from fertilizers to equipment have ballooned as Trump’s new tariffs bite.”Getting parts to fix your combines and your planters and everything is costing more because of the tariffs,” Hutchison said. “It’s going to affect our bottom line.”US farm bankruptcies this year have surged about 50 percent from 2024, said professor Chad Hart of Iowa State University.Asked if economic conditions have changed his feelings about supporting Trump, Hutchison paused: “It makes me think a little bit more.”

US soybean farmers battered by trade row with China

The US soybean harvest is underway and in rural Maryland, farmer Travis Hutchison cracks open a pod to show how a field is nearly dry enough for reaping.But a decent yield is not enough to secure his income this year — with China, once the biggest buyer of US soybean exports, halting orders in a trade row triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs.Soybean prices “are really depressed because of the trade war,” Hutchison told AFP. His family tills 3,400 acres of soybeans, corn and other crops.”I wasn’t against the president trying it, because I think we needed better trade deals,” added the 54-year-old of Trump’s policies.But he expressed disappointment at how things played out: “I was hoping it would get resolved sooner.”Hutchison is among American farmers — a key support base for Trump — reeling from the trade impasse.The world’s second biggest economy in 2024 bought more than half the $24.5 billion in US soybean exports.But exports to China have fallen by over 50 percent in value this year, and Chinese buyers have held off on new soybean orders from the US autumn harvest.With lower demand, soybean prices are down about 40 percent from three years ago.This comes as American soybeans have become pricier for Chinese buyers.As Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese products in his second presidency, Beijing’s counter-duties on US soybeans rose to 20 percent.This makes them “prohibitively more expensive” than exports from South America, where US farmers face growing competition, said the American Soybean Association (ASA).Last month, Argentina suspended its export tax on key crops like soybeans, making them more attractive to Chinese buyers too.Trump vowed to tap tariff revenues to help US farmers but has not provided details, while prospects of a longer-term deal appear more distant than ever.On Friday, Trump promised additional 100-percent tariffs targeting China and threatened to scrap talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping over Beijing’s rare earth industry export curbs.ASA president Caleb Ragland said the group had hoped top-level talks would restore soybean exports to China.”These latest developments are deeply disappointing at a moment when soybean farmers are facing an ever-growing financial crisis,” he said.- ‘Band-aid’ -Hutchison, whose family has been farming in Cordova for generations, acknowledges that farmers are easy targets in trade spats.But a government bailout is a “band-aid” rather than a long-term solution, he said.”I’m glad that he’s thinking of us,” Hutchison added, referring to Trump.But securing a reliable trading partner is more important: “We’re in the farming game for the long term.”Time is limited, as China’s soybean purchasing window from the United States usually runs from October through January, said farmer David Burrier, based in Union Bridge, Maryland.”This year’s going to be a very, very tough year,” he told AFP. “40 percent of our acres are probably going to be breakeven or under breakeven.”Burrier said it would be a “four-alarm fire” if China stopped soybean purchases for good.ASA chief economist Scott Gerlt warned the situation is especially harsh in Midwestern states like North and South Dakota.There, the soybean industry is built up around exporting to the Pacific Northwest and subsequently to China.They are hard-hit if they run out of storage and cannot ship their harvests out.- Worse than 2018 -Gerlt said farmers have it harder than in 2018, when they were also caught in Washington and Beijing’s tariffs war.From 2018 to 2019, retaliatory tariffs caused over $27 billion in US agriculture export losses. The government provided $23 billion to help farmers hit by trade disputes.But they enter this trade war under greater financial stress, Gerlt said.Crop revenues are lower, yet costs for everything from fertilizers to equipment have ballooned as Trump’s new tariffs bite.”Getting parts to fix your combines and your planters and everything is costing more because of the tariffs,” Hutchison said. “It’s going to affect our bottom line.”US farm bankruptcies this year have surged about 50 percent from 2024, said professor Chad Hart of Iowa State University.Asked if economic conditions have changed his feelings about supporting Trump, Hutchison paused: “It makes me think a little bit more.”

As raids ramp up, Chicago’s Latino economy withers

The quinceanera dress shops in Chicago’s Little Village neighborhood are usually bustling enterprises, reflecting the buoyant mood of Latino families eyeing a brighter future. Not anymore.Businesses across the Midwestern city’s immigrant-heavy districts are in peril, as a crackdown by US President Donald Trump’s administration ripples through communities and sends terrified immigrants indoors and out of view — regardless of their citizenship status.At the heart of Little Village, nicknamed the Mexico of the Midwest for its vibrant Mexican culture and cuisine, streets were eerily empty Friday night — when the hub is usually thumping with energy. Restaurants are closing early and laying off staff. Construction sites are dark.One of the dozen quinceanera shops in Little Village — where families buy lavish gowns for their daughters’ coming-of-age parties — already went out of business, in September.For Ariella Santoyo, owner of My Quince World, the crackdown’s snowballing effect on a billion-dollar immigrant economy is reminiscent of Covid and how the pandemic devastated the area.”Definitely we have seen a decline this year” since Trump returned to the White House vowing to escalate deportations, Santoyo, 38, told AFP as she embellished the embroidery on a gown.Now with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detaining undocumented migrants and even US citizens in an escalating series of raids in the Democratic-run city, she has experienced “about a 40 percent loss” in business.Mike Muhammad, employed at a Latin-themed supermarket, put a similar estimate on the downturn.”People are not coming” to buy groceries, he said.Many men who work construction in Chicago are staying home too, said one contractor getting a haircut in Little Village.”No one is showing up to work. They’re scared,” said the man, who declined to be identified.Such income loss is putting tremendous strain on immigrant families, many of whom were already living on the margins.Many Mexican-American immigrants told AFP today’s conditions felt doubly dispiriting: Trump’s steep tariffs on Mexican imports, which are raising prices on the goods Chicago’s immigrant community purchases, and now raids that are keeping residents off the job. – Massive immigrant economy -Immigrants are huge contributors to the US economy, spending $299 billion in 2023 alone, according to non-profit advocacy group American Immigration Council.Chicago’s population of 2.7 million is 30 percent Hispanic or Latino, 2025 US Census figures show, and city Mayor Brandon Johnson — who has clashed with Trump over the ICE raids — warned of broader financial woes if the immigrant economy suffers.”President Trump is literally undermining the economic prowess of cities like Chicago,” Johnson said recently.Some Chicagoans are taking security measures into their own hands, establishing neighborhood patrols that sound out warnings when they see or suspect immigration enforcement operations.AFP tagged along with Pilsen Defense Access group as they patrolled the district on Chicago’s Lower West Side.”You do have these agents going through neighborhoods targeting people, and it makes people afraid, right?” said an activist who identified himself as Davis, a US military veteran, as he drove Pilsen’s streets. “To me that’s an act of terrorism.”No ICE personnel were spotted on the 90-minute patrol past schools, community centers and shopping hubs.But Davis said the surge in sweeps has residents scared and exasperated, triggering a trickle-down effect that can swamp a community’s economy.Pilsen was particularly vibrant on Sunday, however, as the Chicago Marathon snaked through the neighborhood where supporters waved Mexican flags and cheered.- ‘Back 50 years’ -Santoyo, the dressmaker, said the latest crisis “does bring the community together, helping each other through these tough times.” She choked up recalling how her immigrant father told her recently: “I feel like we went back 50 years in time.”But despite the ups and downs “we got through it all, so we will also get through this,” she said.Rosa, a 66-year-old born in Mexico, said at a local supermercado that today’s climate feels worse than Covid, because “now we can’t even go out to work or buy our things.”She remains fearful of how the crackdown will impact her community’s economy.”We all come here to work for a better future,” said Rosa, a US citizen who asked that her last name not be used.”If it weren’t for us — the Hispanics, the Mexicans — where would this country be?”