L’objectif de maintien du réchauffement sous 2°C “est mort”, selon un éminent climatologue

L’objectif de maintien à long-terme du réchauffement climatique sous le seuil des +2°C par rapport à la période préindustrielle, la limite haute fixée par l’accord de Paris, “est mort”, a estimé mardi un éminent climatologue américain.James Hansen, ancien chef climatologue de la Nasa, publie cette semaine avec plusieurs scientifiques une étude concluant que certains phénomènes qui sous-tendent le changement climatique ont été sous-estimés.Selon leur analyse de la situation actuelle et leurs projections, “l’objectif des 2°C est mort”, a déclaré mardi M. Hansen lors d’une présentation.L’un des scénarios ambitieux du Giec – le groupe d’experts du climat mandatés par l’ONU -, tablant sur une nette diminution des émissions de gaz à effets de serre permettant possiblement de contenir le réchauffement sous ce seuil, est “aujourd’hui impossible”, a-t-il estimé.En cause, explique-t-il, la consommation énergétique mondiale qui “augmente et continuera d’augmenter”, avec une “majeure partie de l’énergie provenant encore des combustibles fossiles”, principaux émetteurs de gaz à effets de serre.En plus de cette transition énergétique trop lente, le scientifique et son équipe pointent dans leur étude “un manque de réalisme dans l’évaluation du climat”, estimant que ce dernier est plus sensible aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre que ce qui est envisagé aujourd’hui.- Emissions de soufre -Dans leur analyse, M. Hansen et ses collègues se sont également penchés sur le rôle d’un changement de régulation dans le secteur maritime en 2020, dont les effets sur le climat auraient selon eux été minimisés.Ce changement s’est traduit par une réduction des émissions de soufre, qui réfléchissaient la lumière du soleil vers l’espace et participaient ainsi à refroidir l’atmosphère.Les chercheurs évaluent par ailleurs que la circulation méridienne de retournement de l’Atlantique (Amoc), un système de courants marins jouant un rôle majeur dans la régulation du climat, devrait cesser “au cours des 20 à 30 prochaines années” du fait notamment de la fonte des glaces.Une telle disparition entraînerait “des problèmes majeurs, notamment une élévation du niveau de la mer de plusieurs mètres”, préviennent-ils, parlant d’un “point de non-retour”.Selon leurs prévisions, les températures moyennes mondiales devraient rester égales ou supérieures à +1,5 °C par rapport à celles préindustrielles dans les années à venir, avant d’atteindre le seuil des +2°C d’ici à 2045.Adopté il y a près de dix ans par la quasi-totalité des pays, l’accord de Paris dont Washington a récemment annoncé se retirer pour la deuxième fois, vise à maintenir l’augmentation de la température moyenne mondiale “bien en dessous de 2°C” par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels et à poursuivre les efforts pour la limiter à 1,5°C.Cela dans l’objectif de limiter significativement les conséquences les plus catastrophiques du réchauffement climatique.Le monde s’est déjà réchauffé de 1,3°C en moyenne et le seuil des 1,5°C a été dépassé pour la première fois ces deux dernières années selon l’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM).

Syria’s Alawites mourn their dead after revenge attacks

At the bottom of Nisrine Ezzedine’s garden, cement blocks mark the graves of her husband, son and nephew, all killed by foreign jihadists in Syria’s Alawite minority heartland.After Islamist-led rebels ousted longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad on December 8, the new authorities sought to reassure minorities in multi-ethnic multi-confessional Syria that they will be protected.But Alawites, from a branch of Shiite Islam, have an acute fear of reprisals because of their connection to the Assad clan, which recruited from and favoured its own religious community for military and public sector positions during more than half a century of iron-fisted rule.Ezzedine said foreign jihadists set up near the family olive groves, outside their mountain village of Ain al-Sharkia in the coastal province of Latakia, after Assad’s ouster.She said her civil servant husband Ammar, son Musa and her nephew Mohammed, both 17, were attacked there last month.”Extremists — masked foreigners — riddled them with bullets,” said Ezzedine, 48, her frail silhouette framed in a black coat.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor blamed “foreign Islamist fighters allied to Syria’s new authorities” for the attack.Some members of the Ezzedine family had been in the military, but all three were civilians.The boys “were supposed to finish school this year”, she said quietly.Alawites account for about nine percent of Syria’s population, or around 1.7 million people. The community has been repeatedly targeted since Assad’s ouster.This month, authorities said they were searching for “criminals” after an attack in an Alawite village in Hama province that the Observatory said killed 10 people, including a child and an elderly woman.- ‘Loyalists’ -The family acknowledged that the new authorities swiftly opened an investigation after the trio’s killing.”They promised to find the perpetrators, but so far we haven’t seen anything,” said electrical engineer Ali Ismail, a relative of Ezzedine.Ismail lived for a decade in the northern city of Aleppo, but like many Alawites has returned to his native Latakia province, fearing indiscriminate reprisals.”In every region, the community is under attack,” he said.People assume that being Alawite means “you are with the former regime, you committed crimes and fought alongside Bashar”, he added.The new authorities have regularly announced security sweeps and said they are facing armed “ex-regime loyalists”.The two highest-ranking former government officials arrested so far — military official Mohammed Kanjo Hassan and Assad’s cousin Atif Najib — were apprehended in the Alawite heartland.In Jableh, black-clad security forces in balaclavas manned a checkpoint where armed men carried out an attack last month, also throwing grenades at a police dormitory, killing two people and wounding three.Ahmed Abdel Rahman, the new security chief in Jableh, blamed the incident on “elements from the ranks of the regime or its militias”.”They know that if they are brought to justice they will be judged for their crimes. They want to sow chaos,” he told AFP.- ‘Civil peace’ -Interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa said Monday that ensuring “civil peace today is not a luxury in Syria — it is a duty for all”.He warned of a “great catastrophe” if the country remains “captive to internal and sectarian disputes”.In a village in central Hama province, Ali al-Shahhoud was receiving condolences at a funeral ceremony for five people, mostly close relatives, killed in another village called Al-Anz.His eye still red and his hand bandaged, the Alawite man in his 40s said armed assailants “speaking the local dialect” had rounded up more than a dozen men.”They shot at us randomly in front of the women and children,” he said, adding that Sunni Muslim neighbours took him to hospital.The dead included his brother, 80-year-old uncle, 75-year-old father and 15-year-old son.Shahhoud’s relative Rajab al-Mohammed, who also survived, denied links to Assad’s military.”We have no weapons,” he said. The attackers stole cattle and mobile phones to “conceal the sectarian aspect” of the murders, he charged.Former municipal official Ali al-Mohammed was at the funeral.He said people had fled around a dozen villages in the central region, fearing random reprisals.Since December 8, the Observatory has registered more than 240 extrajudicial killings and “revenge acts” mostly targeting Alawites and former security personnel, many in Homs and Hama provinces.Homs and Hama are “multi-confessional provinces”, Mohammed said as winter sun spilled into the funeral hall.”All these problems aim to put an end to coexistence — that’s the message we’re getting.”

Karim Aga Khan IV, architecte du développement

Responsable religieux et philanthrope à la fortune colossale, le prince Karim Aga Khan IV, décédé mardi à Lisbonne l’âge de 88 ans, avait passé la majeure partie de sa vie à construire des ponts entre les cultures et les courants d’un islam modéré.Chef spirituel des ismaéliens nizârites, il était vénéré par cette communauté musulmane chiite de 12 à 15 millions de fidèles répartis sur une vingtaine de pays en Afrique, au Moyen-Orient et en Asie, où il a multiplié investissements et projets de développement.”Son altesse le prince Karim Al-Hussaini, Aga Khan IV, 49ème Imam héréditaire des musulmans chiites ismaéliens et descendant direct du prophète Mahomet (que la paix soit avec lui), est décédé paisiblement à Lisbonne le 4 février 2025, à l’âge de 88 ans, entouré de sa famille”, a indiqué sur X sa fondation, le Réseau Aga Khan de développement (AKDN).C’est au Kenya que ce petit-fils du précédent Aga Khan, Mahomed Shah, passe son enfance. Et c’est en Tanzanie, à Dar es-Salam, qu’il est intronisé 49ème imam des ismaéliens en 1957. Son père, Ali, s’était vu écarter de la succession après son mariage tumultueux avec l’actrice américaine Rita Hayworth.Né avec une cuillère en vermeil dans la bouche à Genève en 1936, cet étudiant à Harvard aurait pu dormir sur l’héritage d’un grand-père qui valait littéralement son pesant d’or, comme le montre un cliché de 1946 où on le voit sur une balance recevoir l’équivalent de son poids en or.Mais, à moins de 21 ans, le nouvel Aga Khan se donne pour mission de développer l’oeuvre déjà considérable de son aïeul qui créa hôpitaux, logements, ou coopératives bancaires pour améliorer le sort des plus vulnérables.L’héritier investit une vaste partie de sa fortune dans les pays les plus démunis, alliant philanthropie et sens des affaires. Il crée et dirige l’AKDN qui revendique 96.000 employés à travers le monde et consacre environ un milliard de dollars par an aux activités de développement à but non-lucratif: lutte contre la pauvreté, éducation, formation, santé, urbanisme ou développement des infrastructures. Depuis 1984, ce réseau comprend une branche dédiée au développement économique, le Fonds Aga Khan pour le développement économique (AKFED), qui compte 36.000 salariés, 90 sociétés et génère des recettes annuelles de 4,5 milliards de dollars.L’AKFED opère notamment dans les télécommunications, la production d’électricité, le tourisme avec la chaîne hôtelière Serena, les services financiers ou les médias via l’influent Nation Media Group, côté en Bourse à Nairobi.L’AKDN mène des actions au Pakistan, en Inde, au Bangladesh, en Afghanistan, au Tadjikistan, dans la république kirghize, au Kenya, en Côte d’Ivoire, en Ouganda, en Tanzanie, en Egypte et au Tadjikistan.Une de ses réussites les plus emblématique est la création en 2005 d’un parc de 30 hectares dans le centre historique du Caire sur un dépotoir où aucun promoteur immobilier ne se serait aventuré.En Ouganda, le réseau a cofinancé le barrage de Bujagali, inauguré en 2012.- Défenseur d’une “religion de paix” -D’une discrétion à toute épreuve, maniant un verbe prudent, l’Aga Khan répugnait à aborder les questions de conflits aux Proche et Moyen-Orient, de poussée d’un islam intégriste, de tensions entre musulmans sunnites et chiites.L’islam n’est pas une confession “de conflit ou de désordre social, c’est une religion de paix”, disait-il dans un entretien à l’AFP en 2017. Il est instrumentalisé dans des situations “essentiellement politiques, mais qui sont présentées, pour diverses raisons, dans un contexte théologique. Ce n’est tout simplement pas correct”, selon lui.Citoyen britannique, l’Aga Khan avait aussi la nationalité portugaise. Le parlement d’Ottawa lui a conféré la citoyenneté honoraire canadienne — une distinction rarement accordée — pour son rôle de champion du développement et de la tolérance dans le monde.Milliardaire possédant yachts et jets, l’Aga Khan a par ailleurs créé en 1977 le Prix Aga Khan d’Architecture récompensant les projets architecturaux novateurs des sociétés musulmanes.Familier des champs de course, il a perpétué la tradition familiale d’élevage de pur-sangs dans ses huits haras de France et d’Irlande et a contribué à la vaste rénovation du domaine de Chantilly, au nord de Paris.En France, il a été fait Grand-Croix de la Légion d’Honneur, le plus haut grade de cette prestigieuse distinction. Il a également été accueilli au sein de l’Académie des Beaux-Arts en tant que membre associé étranger, un hommage à ce passionné d’architecture.L’Aga Khan a eu quatre enfants : Zahra, Rahim et Hussain, nés de son premier mariage avec le mannequin britannique Sally Crocker-Poole, puis Aly, né en 2000 d’une seconde union avec la juriste allemande Gabriele zu Leiningen, dont il a divorcé en 2004.

Google shares slide on spending plans despite sales jump

Google’s parent company Alphabet on Tuesday reported revenue jumped in the recently-ended quarter, but shares sank on concerns it may be pouring too much money into artificial intelligence.Google and rivals are spending billions of dollars on data centers and more for AI, while meaningful returns on investments remain elusive and the rise of lower-cost model DeepSeek from China raises questions about how much needs to be spent.”We are pushing the next frontiers from AI agents, reasoning and deep research to state-of-the-art video, quantum computing and more,” Alphabet chief executive Sundar Pichai said during an earnings call.”The company is in a great rhythm and cadence, building, testing, and launching products faster than ever before.”Pichai said this is translating into increased use of its products, including AI search summaries that are now available in more than 100 countries.Alphabet said revenues jumped 12 percent to $96.5 billion in the quarter, but the company’s share price sank more than 7 percent in after-hours trading as investors were disappointed by lower-than-expected revenue growth and the company’s ambitious capital spending forecast for 2025.Google Cloud revenue, while growing 30 percent to $12 billion, fell short of expectations, raising questions about the division’s ability to compete with rivals in the heated AI infrastructure market.”Q4 was a strong quarter driven by our leadership in AI and momentum across the business,” Pichai said.”We’ll continue to invest in our cloud business to ensure we can address the increase in customer demand.”Pichai added that Google is working on “even better thinking models” that it will share with developers soon.Alphabet announced plans to invest approximately $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, a figure that surprised analysts and highlighted the mounting costs of AI development.- ‘Chaotic backdrop’ -Like other tech giants, Alphabet is betting heavily on artificial intelligence across all of its products. “Part of the reason we are so excited about the AI opportunity is we know we can drive extraordinary use cases because the cost of actually using it is going to keep coming down,” Pichai said.”The opportunity space is as big as it comes, and that’s why you’re seeing us meeting that moment.”In December, the company announced the launch of Gemini 2.0, its most advanced AI model to date.The company’s core Google Services segment, which includes search and YouTube, posted revenues of $84.1 billion, up 10 percent year-over-year.Within this segment, YouTube advertising revenue grew to $10.5 billion, while Google Search revenue reached $54 billion.Pichai told financial analysts that autonomous car division Waymo made “tremendous progress” last year and its robotaxi service is averaging 150,000 trips weekly.Waymo One robotaxi operations will expand to Austin and Atlanta this year, and to Miami next year, according to Pichai.”And in the coming weeks, Waymo One vehicles will arrive in Tokyo for their first international road trip,” Pichai said.The company’s workforce remained largely stable at 183,323 employees, reflecting ongoing cost control measures.Hanging over Google in 2025 are two major antitrust cases in the United States concerning the company’s dominant position in search engines and ad technology. A US judge has already found Google operating an illegal monopoly in search, and the company faces potential forced restructuring, including the possible sale of Chrome, its world-leading web browser.Meanwhile, Britain’s competition watchdog recently launched its own investigation into Google’s search engine market dominance and its impact on consumers and businesses. The decision in the US ad tech case is expected in the coming weeks.”Between defending itself against antitrust lawsuits from multiple governments, courting US TikTok advertisers to capitalize on a yet-elusive ban, reconfiguring search around generative AI, and convincing the market to invest in Gemini, Google is fighting ongoing battles on several fronts,” said Emarketer senior analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf.”Against this chaotic backdrop, Google’s core ads business has maintained healthy growth.”

Trump says US will ‘take over’ Gaza as he welcomes Netanyahu

President Donald Trump made an extraordinary proposal for the United States to “take over” the Gaza Strip, as he hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for crucial talks on the truce with Hamas.Trump also doubled down on his call for Palestinians to move out of the war-battered territory to Middle Eastern countries like Egypt and Jordan, despite the Palestinians and both nations flatly rejecting his suggestion.”The US will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it, too. We’ll own it,” Trump told a joint press conference with Netanyahu.Trump said the United States would get rid of unexploded bombs, “level the site” and remove destroyed buildings, and “create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area.”But Trump appeared to suggest that it was not Palestinians who would return there. “It should not go through a process of rebuilding and occupation by the same people that have really stood there and fought for it and lived there and died there and lived a miserable existence there,” he said.He said Gaza’s two million inhabitants should instead “go to other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts.”Netanyahu hailed Trump as the “greatest friend Israel has ever had.”He said the US president’s Gaza plan could “change history” and was worth “paying attention to.”- ‘Great force’ -Egypt and Jordan have flatly rejected Trump’s suggestion of moving Palestinians from Gaza. The Palestinian envoy to the United Nations meanwhile said world leaders should “respect” the wishes of Palestinians.Gazans have also denounced Trump’s idea. “Trump thinks Gaza is a pile of garbage — absolutely not,” said 34-year-old Hatem Azzam, a resident of the southern city of Rafah.The US president has claimed credit for securing the first six-week phase of the Israel-Hamas truce after more than 15 months of fighting and bombing, and he was expected to urge Netanyahu to move to the next phase aimed at a more lasting peace.Netanyahu earlier said “we’re going to try” when asked how optimistic he was about moving on to phase two.He hailed Trump’s “great force and powerful leadership” in sealing the original ceasefire deal, and took a swipe at former president Joe Biden, with whom he had tense relations over the death toll in Gaza.”When the other side sees daylight between us — and occasionally in the last few years they saw daylight — it’s more difficult. When we cooperate, chances are good,” Netanyahu said.Israel said hours ahead of the White House talks it was sending a team to mediator Qatar to discuss the second phase of the agreement.Hamas said Tuesday negotiations for the second phase had begun, with spokesman Abdel Latif al-Qanou saying the focus was on “shelter, relief and reconstruction”.Under the first phase of the ceasefire, Palestinian militants and Israel have begun exchanging hostages.Eighteen hostages have been freed so far in exchange for some 600 mostly Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, taking into Gaza 251 hostages, 76 of whom are still held in the Palestinian territory including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.Families of the Israeli hostages have been urging all sides to ensure the agreement is maintained so their loved ones can be freed.Since the Gaza ceasefire took effect on January 19, Israel has launched a deadly operation against militants in the occupied West Bank’s north.UN aid agency UNRWA — which is now banned in Israel — warned that the heavily impacted refugee camp of Jenin was “going into a catastrophic direction”.On Tuesday, the Israeli army said a gunman killed two soldiers before being shot dead in an attack south of Jenin.The truce has also led to a surge of food, fuel, medical and other aid into Gaza, and allowed people displaced by the war to return to the north of the Palestinian territory.Hamas’s October 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people on Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.Israel’s retaliatory response has killed at least 47,518 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers these figures as reliable.burs-dk/st