Au futur congrès du PS, Vallaud en embuscade?

A la tête du Parti socialiste depuis six ans, Olivier Faure devrait briguer un nouveau mandat au prochain congrès prévu en 2025. Mais dans son propre camp, certains verraient bien émerger une autre figure, le député des Landes Boris Vallaud, jugé plus consensuel.Alors que la date du congrès n’est pas encore décidée, Olivier Faure voit déjà ses opposants internes, toujours hostiles à sa stratégie d’alliance avec LFI, se préparer à tenter de lui ravir le trône. Mais parmi ses soutiens, certains émettent aussi des doutes.Et la rumeur monte depuis plusieurs semaines: le chef des députés PS pourrait être l’homme qui réconcilie les socialistes, et éviterait au prochain congrès de finir comme celui de Marseille en 2023, qui avait vu le parti se fracturer en deux. “Je ne veux pas d’un congrès d’autodestruction des socialistes à neuf mois des élections municipales et j’ai l’impression qu’on en prend le chemin”, déplore le sénateur Alexandre Ouizille.”Le risque est élevé de faire Marseille bis repetita sur une question périmée, le rapport à Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, estime-t-il. “Si on veut regagner le pouvoir, les socialistes ne peuvent pas être coupés en deux”, abonde le président du département de Seine-Saint-Denis Stéphane Troussel, proche d’Olivier Faure.Est-ce que ce dernier est dans cet état d’esprit? “Il doit donner des signes”, prévient Stéphane Troussel.Un autre proche d’Olivier Faure le dit: “Il ne devrait pas y aller, pour son bien et le bien du parti. Je ne suis pas le seul à penser ça”.”Visiblement, regrette le même, Olivier Faure ne pense pas qu’il a besoin d’un PS fortement uni pour gagner à gauche. Il se dit que pour gagner, il faut réduire le débat à une confrontation binaire”.Pour Alexandre Ouizille, il existe une voie “entre ceux qui disent comme François Hollande, +un candidat socialiste quoi qu’il en coûte+ et ceux qui disent +un candidat unique+ de la gauche”, à l’instar d’Olivier Faure, “alors qu’ils savent pertinemment que Jean-Luc Mélenchon ne ne soumettra à aucun processus collectif de sélection”. Il plaide, avec “une majorité de socialistes, dit-il, pour “un candidat commun, d’union de la gauche” la plus large possible, avec le principe que “la première place des socialistes ne se décrète pas” mais “se mérite par le travail”.Selon lui, Boris Vallaud, qui aspire à un “congrès de réconciliation”, est sur cette ligne.Le député des Landes, auteur d’un livre remarqué en octobre, “a des ambitions”, assure un autre élu local, qui aimerait le voir prendre la parole prochainement.- “quelle ligne?” -Vallaud, dont tout le monde loue la gestion pacifiée du groupe à l’Assemblée, “pourrait être dans la troisième voie, entre celle de Faure et ses opposants, il est agacé de cette opposition”, confirme un député socialiste.Même chez les Insoumis, certains semblent donner crédit à cette hypothèse: on souligne que le Landais s’est rendu à la rentrée au rassemblement du leader de Place publique, Raphaël Glucksmann, en froid avec le patron du PS. “C’est un signe. Faure est mort”, estime un cadre LFI. Mais cet énarque de 49 ans, époux de l’ex-ministre socialiste Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, reste pour l’instant une énigme. “Je m’interroge quand on m’interroge, mais je n’ai pas la réponse”, répond-il quand on le questionne sur ses ambitions.”Vallaud n’est pas fauriste, il est vallaudien un jour sur deux”, s’amuse un proche.Mais pour le député Laurent Baumel, si quelqu’un veut remplacer Olivier Faure, “il doit dire sur quelle ligne”. “Si le sujet, c’est que Olivier n’a pas bien traité quelqu’un, ou n’a pas répondu au téléphone ou à un SMS, ça fait pas une ligne politique”, martèle-t-il, ne voyant “pas d’espace pour une motion Vallaud et une motion Faure”.Un autre député est aussi sceptique sur les intentions de Vallaud. “Il ne sera candidat que si Faure ne l’est pas. Il ne peut pas l’affronter sur une autre ligne”, prédit-il.”Faure c’est un roseau… Il plie mais ne cède pas. Depuis 6 ans que je suis avec Olivier, vous me demandez toujours s’il est affaibli, et il est toujours là”, balaye le secrétaire général du PS Pierre Jouvet.

China retail sales pick up speed, beat forecasts in October

China’s retail sales last month grew at their fastest clip since the start of the year, official figures showed Friday, an encouraging sign for Beijing as it looks to boost sluggish consumption.Officials have since late September unveiled a slew of measures including interest rate cuts and debt swaps intended to boost activity in the world’s second-largest economy, which has struggled to regain momentum since the pandemic.Among the woes facing policymakers are slumping domestic consumption resulting in deflationary pressure, a property sector bust and geopolitically fraught trade disputes.Retail sales expanded 4.8 percent on-year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, speeding up from the 3.2 percent in September.The reading also significantly outperformed the 3.8 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and represents the best reading since February.Figures also showed the national urban unemployment rate fell slightly to five percent from 5.1 percent in September.However, industrial production growth edged down to 5.3 percent in October, the NBS figures showed, from 5.4 percent the previous month.The NBS said in a statement that in October “positive factors accumulated and increased and the national economy was stable, with progress and growth”.Beijing is pushing for an official national growth target this year of around five percent, a goal most economists believe it will narrowly miss.But recent weeks have seen officials announce their most aggressive measures in years in a bid to breathe fresh life into the economy.The new policies have included a debt swap programme to ease the burden on local governments, mortgage rate cuts and the elimination of certain restrictions on home purchases.”The economy stabilised in October because of the policy shift in late September,” wrote Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note.But Zhang warned that the “property sector has not turned around”.The market is now turning its attention to the new year, with prospects of an intensified trade war under US president-elect Donald Trump, Zhang added.”The key question is how much fiscal stimulus China will run to counter potential export slowdown.”

Japan growth slows as new PM readies stimulus

Japan’s growth slowed in the third quarter, official data showed Friday, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeks to jumpstart the world’s fourth-largest economy.One of the fiercest typhoons to hit Japan in decades and a government “megaquake” warning weighed on factory production and other economic activity this summer.That dragged on gross domestic product (GDP) and the country saw growth of 0.2 percent between July and September, according to a preliminary reading by the Cabinet Office.The data met market expectations, but marked a slowdown from a revised 0.5 percent in the previous three months. Compared with the same period a year earlier GDP grew 0.9 percent, much slower than the downwardly revised 2.2 percent in April-June.The government is expecting a “gradual recovery” of the economy — beset for decades by stagnation and harmful deflation — chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday.”Our country is at an important crossroads as it’s about to transition into a growth-based economy driven by wage hikes and investment,” he told a regular briefing.”To realise that, we will implement all possible economic and fiscal policies, including a package currently under consideration.”Ishiba kept his job in a parliamentary vote on Monday, despite last month leading the ruling coalition to its worst general election result in 15 years.The 67-year-old has unveiled plans for the government to support the AI and semiconductor sectors with more than 10 trillion yen ($64 billion) by 2030.He also hopes to win over opposition parties this month to pass a draft supplementary budget for a new stimulus package — reportedly to include cash handouts for low-income households and families.Higher spending on cars, as production resumed after disruption related to a domestic testing scandal, helped boost output during the quarter, analysts said.Wage hikes and temporary income tax cuts were also positive factors.But this was tempered by Typhoon Shanshan and the “megaquake” alert — issued after a magnitude 7.1 jolt to ready people for the risk of an even bigger quake that ultimately did not occur.Factory production was also hit when Shanshan descended in late August, forcing the cancellation of trains and flights.Earlier the same month, “tourism demand was weighed down” by the megaquake alert, issued by the weather agency for the first time under a new warning system.This prompted consumers to stock up on emergency supplies, leading to shortages of rice in supermarkets, while thousands cancelled holidays during the week-long advisory.”The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters,” Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday.However, the Bank of Japan “will be encouraged by the strength in consumer spending and we still expect it to press ahead with another rate hike at its meeting next month”, he predicted.

Xi, Biden in Peru for APEC summit, pre-Trump face-to-face

US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping arrived in Peru Thursday for an Asia-Pacific summit where they will likely meet for the last time under a cloud of diplomatic uncertainty cast by Donald Trump’s election victory.Air Force One touched down at an air base outside Lima as Xi, who landed hours earlier, was received at the presidential palace by Peruvian leader Dina Boluarte on the eve of a two-day heads-of-state meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping.Biden and Xi are due to hold talks Saturday, in what a US administration official said will probably be the last face-to-face between the sitting leaders of the world’s largest economies before Trump is sworn in in January.With the Republican president-elect having signaled a confrontational approach to Beijing for his second term, the bilateral meeting will be a closely watched affair.APEC, created in 1989 with the goal of regional trade liberalization, brings together 21 economies that jointly represent about 60 percent of world GDP and over 40 percent of global commerce.The summit program was to focus on trade and investment for what proponents dubbed inclusive growth.But uncertainty over Trump’s next moves now clouds the agenda — as it does for the COP29 climate talks underway in Azerbaijan, and a G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.On Thursday, APEC ministers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, held their own meeting behind closed doors in Lima to set the tone for the two-day summit to follow.Trump announced this week he will replace Blinken with Senator Marco Rubio, a China hawk.- ‘America First’ -The summit will also be attended by Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and Indonesia, among others.President Vladimir Putin of APEC member Russia will not be present.Trump’s “America First” agenda is based on protectionist trade policies, increased domestic fossil fuel extraction, and avoiding foreign conflicts.It threatens alliances Biden has built on issues ranging from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to climate change and commerce.The Republican president-elect has threatened tariffs of up to 60 percent on imports of Chinese goods to even out what he says is an imbalance in bilateral trade.China is grappling with a prolonged housing crisis and sluggish consumption that can only be made worse by a new trade war with Washington.But economists say punitive levies would also harm the American economy, and others further afield.- ‘Criminals and drugs’ -China is an ally of Western pariahs Russia and North Korea, and is building up its own military capacity while ramping up pressure on Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory.It is also expanding its reach into Latin America through infrastructure and other projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.Xi on Thursday inaugurated South America’s first Chinese-funded port, in Chancay, north of Lima.He was accompanied for the virtual ceremony by Boluarte, who praised China for playing “a major role in the growth of our economy.”At the same time, the top US diplomat for Latin America, Brian Nichols, warned in Lima that Latin American nations must be vigilant on Chinese investment.Biden will on Friday meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol — key US allies in Asia.Traveling with Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the partner nations will announce the creation of a secretariat to ensure the trilateral alliance “will be an enduring feature of American policy in the Indo-Pacific going forward.”China isn’t the only country in Trump’s economic crosshairs.The incoming US leader has threatened tariffs of 25 percent or more on goods coming from Mexico — another APEC member — unless it stops an “onslaught of criminals and drugs” crossing the border.Peru has deployed more than 13,000 members of the armed forces to keep the peace in Lima as transport workers and shop owners protested against crime and perceived government neglect.