Asian markets largely rose on Wednesday as speculation about a snap election in Japan pushed up Tokyo shares, and oil prices dipped after a surge fuelled by instability in Iran.Metals added to their recent gains to hit new record highs, with silver up more than four percent, partly propelled by the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year.Tokyo closed 1.5 percent higher and the yen slumped to its lowest value since mid-2024 as media reports said Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi planned to hold an election as soon as February 8.Takaichi’s cabinet — riding high in opinion polls — has approved a record 122.3-trillion-yen ($768 billion) budget for the fiscal year from April 2026.She has vowed to get parliamentary approval as soon as possible to address inflation and shore up the world’s fourth-largest economy.Hong Kong closed up 0.6 percent while Shanghai dipped 0.3 percent after Beijing said trade last year reached a “new historical high”, surpassing 45 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) for the first time.Global demand for Chinese goods has held firm despite a slump in exports to the United States after President Donald Trump hiked tariffs.Other trade partners more than filled the gap, increasing Chinese exports overall by 5.5 percent in 2025.”We expect this resilience to continue through 2026,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note.London, Frankfurt and Paris saw marginal gains at the open.- Tariff ruling -“One risk to the export outlook is that the trade truce with the US doesn’t last,” Huang added, referring to a detente that Washington and Beijing reached last year after a major escalation.”Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran underscores the potential for renewed trade tensions.”Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Wellington, Jakarta, Bangkok and Manila were all in the green, while Mumbai, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur were down.Gold spot hit a record high and silver topped $90 an ounce for the first time, partly on the shock news that prosecutors have reopened a probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.”Continued attacks on Fed independence and Trump’s proclivity to push for lower rates is another key reason behind our view and we forecast US Fed funds rates to fall below three percent” by the third quarter, said analyst Michael Wan at MUFG.Trump’s warning of “very strong action” if Iranian authorities hang protesters has also contributed to a tense geopolitical backdrop.Oil prices were lower after an overnight surge as the US president announced steep tariffs on anyone trading with Iran, sparking expectations that the threat will restrict supplies of crude.International outrage has built over the crackdown that a rights group said has likely killed thousands during protests posing one of the biggest challenges yet to Iran’s clerical leadership.Traders will also be keeping an eye on a possible US Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday on the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariffs.A ruling against the government would prove a temporary setback to its economic and fiscal plans, although officials have noted that tariffs can be reimposed by other means.- Key figures at around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.5 percent at 54,341.23 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 26,999.81 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 4,126.09 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1645 from $1.1643 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3440 from $1.3426Dollar/yen: FLAT at 159.15 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.64 pence from 86.71 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.8 percent at $60.66 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.8 percent at $64.96 per barrelLondon – FTSE 100: UP at 10,164.74New York – Dow: DOWN 0.8 percent at 49,191.99 (close)

China reported strong trade numbers for 2025 on Wednesday, as its surplus rose year-on-year to a record $1.2 trillion despite a slump in exports to the United States after President Donald Trump hiked tariffs.Last year’s bruising trade war between Washington and Beijing — which at one point saw reciprocal tariffs in the triple digits — led to a 20 percent plunge year-on-year in China’s exports to the United States, with imports falling 14.6 percent.But other trade partners more than filled the gap, increasing Chinese exports overall by 5.5 percent in 2025, while imports stayed flat in dollar terms.Shipments to the ASEAN group of Southeast Asian nations rose 13.4 percent year-on-year, while exports to Africa saw 25.8 percent growth.Exports to the European Union were also up 8.4 percent, but imports from the bloc dipped.Roiling trade tensions between the EU and China showed signs of easing on Monday when Brussels said Chinese electric vehicle makers could offer price undertakings — which set minimum prices for exporters — which would replace tariffs.Beijing welcomed the move.– ‘Continued resilience’ –China’s trade in 2025 “surpassed 45 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) for the first time, setting a new historical high,” vice customs minister Wang Jun told a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday.”It should be noted that some countries politicise economic and trade issues, restricting high-tech product exports to China under various pretexts,” Wang said, in an apparent reference to the US tariffs and export controls.”Otherwise, we would have imported even more.”December’s figures showed strong growth, with exports up 6.6 percent and imports jumping 5.7 percent year-on-year.”We expect this resilience to continue through 2026,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note.”One risk to the export outlook is that the trade truce with the US doesn’t last. Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran underscores the potential for renewed trade tensions,” Huang said.The White House has jousted with Beijing over Trump’s sweeping tariffs but reached a broad truce with China after a major escalation in the spring.”(China’s) strong export growth helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand,” according to Zhiwei Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management.”Combined with the booming stock market and stable US-China relations, the government is likely to keep the macro policy stance unchanged at least in the first quarter,” he said.Going forward in 2026, China’s market will “open more” and “still be an opportunity for the world” Wang Jun said Wednesday.

The US Commerce Department on Tuesday opened the door for Nvidia to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips in China with restrictions, following through on a policy shift announced last month by President Donald Trump.The change would permit Nvidia to sell its powerful H200 chip to Chinese buyers if certain conditions are met — including proof of “sufficient” US supply — while sales of its most advanced processors would still be blocked.However, uncertainty has grown over how much demand there will be from Chinese companies, as Beijing has reportedly been encouraging tech companies to use homegrown chips.Chinese officials have informed some firms they would only approve buying H200 chips under special circumstances, such as development labs or university research, news website The Information reported Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the situation.The Information had previously reported that Chinese officials were calling on companies there to pause H200 purchases while they deliberated requiring them to buy a certain ratio of AI chips made by Nvidia rivals in China.In its official update on Tuesday, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said it had changed the licensing review policy for H200 and similar chips from a presumption of denial to handling applications case-by-case.Trump announced in December an agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping to allow Nvidia to export its H200 chips to China, with the US government getting a 25-percent cut of sales.The move marked a significant shift in US export policy for advanced AI chips, which Joe Biden’s administration had heavily restricted over national security concerns about Chinese military applications.Democrats in Congress have criticized the move as a huge mistake that will help China’s military and economy.- Chinese chips -Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has advocated for the company to be allowed to sell some of its more advanced chips in China, arguing the importance of AI systems around the world being built on US technology.The chips — graphic processing units or GPUs — are used to train the AI models that are the bedrock of the generative AI revolution launched with the release of ChatGPT in 2022.The GPU sector is dominated by Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable company thanks to frenzied global demand and optimism for AI.H200s are roughly 18 months behind the US company’s most state-of-the-art offerings, which will still be off-limits to China.Nvidia’s Huang has repeatedly warned that China is just “nanoseconds behind” the United States as it accelerates the development of domestically produced advanced chips.On Wednesday, leading Chinese AI startup Zhipu said it had used homegrown Huawei chips to train its new image generator.Zhipu AI described its tool as “the first state-of-the-art multimodal model to complete the entire training process on a domestically produced chip”.The startup went public in Hong Kong last week and its shares have since soared 75 percent — one of several dazzling recent initial public offerings by Chinese chip and generative AI companies, as high hopes for the sector outweigh concerns of a potential market crash.