Whether Covid-19 was unleashed by a laboratory mishap or spilled over from animals remains an enduring, fiercely contested mystery.Here are the leading arguments that fuel both sides of this debate, as AFP reflects on the virus’s impact five years after it reshaped the world.- The case for lab leak -Proponents of the lab-leak hypothesis highlight that the earliest known Covid-19 cases emerged in Wuhan, China — home to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a major hub for coronavirus research — located roughly 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) from the nearest bat populations carrying similar SARS-like viruses.”Wuhan labs performed research that placed them on a trajectory to obtain SARS viruses having high pandemic potential,” Richard Ebright, a microbiologist and professor at Rutgers University, told AFP.”One year before the outbreak, Wuhan labs proposed research to obtain SARS viruses having even higher pandemic potential and features that match, in detail, the features of SARS CoV-2,” he added. This research proposal included engineering a structure called a “furin cleavage site,” which increases viral growth and transmissibility but is absent in other SARS viruses.Lab-leak advocates also cite concerns over biosafety standards at the Wuhan lab, where personnel reportedly only wore lab coats and gloves.”There is sufficient evidence to conclude beyond reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans through a research-related incident,” Ebright concluded.- The case for natural spillover -On the other side, researchers like Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, argue that real-world “hard evidence” consistently points to a wholesale seafood market in Wuhan.”We’ve actually been looking at an evidence base that is hard evidence. It’s evidence that can be measured,” she told AFP, including genomic, geographic and environmental sampling data.She contends that the case for a lab origin, by contrast, is built on “what ifs” and speculation. That would include claims that proposals for research on ways to greatly increase virus transmissibility were publicly rejected but secretly carried out.This perspective is supported by multiple studies, including one published in the prestigious journal Science that analyzed the geographic pattern of Covid-19 cases during December 2019. The study showed cases were tightly clustered around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.Another study, which examined genomic data from the earliest cases, concluded that the virus likely did not circulate widely in humans before November 2019.More recently, in September 2024, a study published in Cell identified raccoon dogs, palm civets, Amur hedgehogs, and bamboo rats at the market.Notably, raccoon dogs, which are closely related to foxes, are known to carry and transmit viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting they could have acted as intermediaries between bats and humans.For Rasmussen, the appeal of the lab-leak theory reflects a desire for straightforward answers. If the blame lies with wayward scientists or China, she argues, people will believe in the possibility of straightforward fixes.- Where things stand now -One thing is certain: the lab-leak theory, once dismissed as a conspiracy theory, has gained mainstream traction. For now, the debate remains unresolved — scientifically and politically.Some US agencies, like the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Energy, support the lab-leak theory, albeit with varying levels of confidence, while most elements of the intelligence community lean toward natural origins.Lab-leak proponents, such as Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute and author of “Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19,” continue to advocate for the full declassification of intelligence data and an independent investigation beyond the 2021 World Health Organization probe in China.”There are many aspects of the pandemic that have damaged public trust in science and health institutions,” Chan told AFP. “The origin of the pandemic is one of these.”

President Donald Trump delayed the start of tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month Monday after the US neighbors struck last-minute deals to tighten border measures against the flow of migrants and the drug fentanyl.Global stock markets had slumped as Trump’s threat of sweeping 25 percent levies on exports from Canada and Mexico to the United States sparked fears of a global trade war.But after calls with Trump just hours before the US tariffs were due to take effect, both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum struck deals for a postponement.Trump said that after “very friendly” talks with Sheinbaum he’d “immediately pause” the tariffs on Mexico, and that his counterpart had agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico frontier.Tensions appeared higher between the US and Canada, but afer two separate calls Trump later said he was “very pleased” and was announcing a 30-day halt in the tariffs.”Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country,” he said.Talks on final deals would continue with both countries, he added.Trudeau said after the “good call” that Canada deploy nearly 10,000 frontline officers to help secure the border, list drug cartels as terrorists, appoint a “Fentanyl Czar” and crack down on money laundering.It was not clear the real extent of the changes on the Canadian border, given that just this December authorities there said they already had 8,500 personnel deployed.- Stocks slump -China remains in the firing line for Trump tariffs. It faces a further 10 percent duty on top of existing levies.The US president said last-minute talks between Washington and Beijing will likely be held “probably in the next 24 hours” to avoid new tariffs on Chinese imports. Canada, China and Mexico are the United States’s three biggest trading partners, and Trump’s threatened tariffs have sent shock waves through the global economy.Wall Street’s three main indices fell sharply in early deals, but clawed back ground after Trump’s announcement on the Mexico deal.The London, Paris and Frankfurt stock markets finished in the red as Trump warned over the weekend that the European Union would be next in the firing line and did not rule out tariffs on Britain.The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar also sank against the greenback, while oil jumped despite Trump limiting the levy on Canada’s energy imports at 10 percent to avoid a spike in fuel prices.The White House said earlier there had been a “heck of a lot of talks” over the weekend.”This is not a trade war, this is a drug war,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC, complaining that “the Canadians appeared to have misunderstood the plain language.”However, US government figures show that only a minimal quantity of drugs comes via Canada.- 51st state? -Canada had vowed to respond strongly to the tariffs.Its most populous province Ontario on Monday had banned US firms from bidding on tens of billions of dollars in government contracts — and dumped a deal with Trump ally Elon Musk’s Starlink.Trump has upped the pressure recently by calling Canada’s existence into question — once again calling on Monday for it to become the 51st US state.A political crisis in the Canadian government over Trump’s tariff threats led to Trudeau announcing earlier this month that he would quit too. Canadians now face elections as early as April.The US president — who has said that tariff is the “most beautiful word in the dictionary” — is going even further in his second term on the levies than he did in his first.He has insisted that the impact would be borne by foreign exporters without being passed on to American consumers, despite most experts saying the contrary.But the billionaire 78-year-old did acknowledge as he returned from a weekend at his Florida resort Sunday that Americans might feel economic “pain”.Trump has also wielded tariffs as a threat to achieve his wider policy goals, most recently when he said he would slap them on Colombia when it turned back US military planes carrying deported migrants.

Elon Musk and his aides have taken control of the US Treasury Department’s payments system — which manages trillions of dollars of transactions each year — sparking alarm among critics.Musk, the world’s richest person, is leading President Donald Trump’s federal cost-cutting efforts under the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).”The only way to stop fraud and waste of taxpayer money is to follow the payment flows and pause suspicious transactions for review,” Musk said Monday in a post on X, the platform he owns.”Naturally, this causes those who have been aiding, abetting, and receiving fraudulent payments to become very upset. Too bad,” he added.The Treasury’s closely guarded payments system handles the money flow of the US government, including $6 trillion annually for Social Security, Medicare, federal salaries, and other critical payments.Musk’s control of the payments system was approved by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and was made possible when a career official was put on administrative leave Friday after refusing to hand over access, The Washington Post first reported.The official subsequently retired from the department, a source close to the matter told AFP.Trump on Sunday praised Musk as “a big cost-cutter.””Sometimes we won’t agree with it and we’ll not go where he wants to go. But I think he’s doing a great job,” the president added.Wired magazine reported that Musk has placed young surrogates working for DOGE into key government positions, with his team gaining unprecedented access to the payment systems typically restricted to career employees.The staff members, reportedly aged between 19 and 24, were also placed at the federal Office of Personnel Management, the human resources department for federal workers. Last week, the office sent an email offering most employees the option to leave government service immediately with approximately nine months’ severance pay, though many legal experts warned staff to be wary of the offer.Democratic lawmakers are expressing deep concerns about political operators having access to the US government’s money flow, saying it amounts to an illegal power grab.”They are seizing the tools you need for a coup,” said Senator Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.Elizabeth Warren, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, blasted the move as “extraordinarily dangerous” and said it posed a systemic risk to the economy.”I am alarmed that as one of your first acts as secretary, you appear to have handed over a highly sensitive system responsible for millions of Americans’ private data — and a key function of government — to an unelected billionaire and an unknown number of his unqualified flunkies,” Warren wrote in a letter to Bessent.She also said sidelining experienced staff in this crucial corner of government “puts the country at greater risk of defaulting on our debt, which could trigger a global financial crisis.”On X, Musk predicted “Excitement guaranteed” in response to a post that said DOGE would uncover an “unprecedented amount of fraud and corruption in numerous government departments.”

Salvage crews on Monday recovered part of the fuselage of a passenger plane that plunged into the Potomac River last week after colliding with a US Army helicopter, killing 67 people.A large crane assisted by a smaller one gingerly pulled the twisted wreckage of the Bombardier CRJ-700 operated by American Eagle airlines out of the water and placed it on a barge.An engine from the regional passenger jet was also recovered from the icy waters.Sixty passengers on the plane and four crew members were killed in Wednesday’s accident along with three soldiers aboard the US Army Black Hawk helicopter.There were no survivors.Fifty-five bodies have been recovered and identified so far, according to local authorities, who have expressed confidence they will locate all of the victims.”We will absolutely stay here and search until such point as we have everybody,” Washington fire chief John Donnelly said Sunday.The plane was on a flight from Wichita, Kansas, to Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington when the collision occurred.President Donald Trump was quick to blame diversity hiring policies for the accident although no evidence has emerged that they were responsible.Trump also said the helicopter, which was on a routine training mission, appeared to be flying too high.According to US media reports, the control tower at the busy airport may have been understaffed at the time of the accident.The National Transportation Safety Board is expected to compile a preliminary report within 30 days, although a full investigation could take a year.