Stockpiling is the reflex response by firms to the imposition of tariffs, but with the rapidly-changing position of the Trump administration, companies are finding that it isn’t so straightforward this time around.Whether it’s the luxury, electronics or pharmaceutical sectors, US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability complicates the calculations of firms.Some companies didn’t wait for Trump’s April 2 announcement of massive “reciprocal” trade tariffs: they had already begun shipping more of their goods to the United States.In the end, Trump backed down quickly on the “reciprocal” tariffs, pausing them for 90 days except for China.That still left the global 10 percent tariff in place, as well as the 25 percent tariffs on European steel, aluminium and cars.French cosmetics firm Clarins didn’t hesitate and stepped up shipments to the United States at the beginning of the year.”We’ve built up three months of stocks, which represents $2 million in goods,” said Lionel Uzan, the head of Clarins’s US operations.With all of its products made in France, Clarins had few other options to mitigate the tariffs.- Discreet stockpiling -Even if they don’t all acknowledge it so openly, firms in many different sectors are stockpiling their products in the United States.In March, exports of Swiss watches to the United States jumped nearly 14 percent compared to the same month last year.More striking is Ireland, which plays host to a number of international pharmaceutical firms.Its exports to the United States jumped 210 percent in February to nearly 13 billion euros ($14.8 billion), with 90 percent of those being pharmaceutical products and chemical ingredients.Fermob, a French manufacturer of metal garden furniture that sells around 10 percent of its products in the United States, said it began planning for US tariffs once the result of the presidential election became known in November.It stepped up production in January and February.”We’ve sent around 30 percent of our extra stock to the United States,” said the company’s chief executive, Baptiste Reybier.That extra production has benefitted transportation firms.Lufthansa Cargo said it has seen in recent weeks “an increase in demand for shipments to the United States”.The trade war “has incited companies to accelerate certain stages in their supply chains”, it told AFP.”A similar trend was seen for the delivery of cars from the EU to the United States,” it said.The phenomenon also concerns US-made goods.The Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported recently that Chinese tech firms were snapping up billions of dollars of artificial intelligence chips made by US firm Nvidia in anticipation of Washington imposing export restrictions.- ‘Short-term approach’ -Stockpiling is not a solution, however, said analysts.Matt Jochim, a partner at consulting firm McKinsey who helps companies with supply chain issues, called stockpiling “a very short-term opportunistic” move.He said the practice has limits as tariffs are constantly changing and it isn’t always practicable.”In a lot of the electronics space, it’s also hard to do, because the technology changes so quickly, you don’t want to get stuck with inventory of chipsets or devices that are the prior version,” he said. Fermob said it was taking a measured approach to stockpiling.”Otherwise you’re replacing one risk with another,” the manufacturer’s Reybier said.”You have to finance stocks and there is also the risk of not having sent the right product.”Having a local subsidiary with warehouses also helped, Reybier added.”It’s too early to say whether we should have sent more or not.”

At a mountainside cafe in southwestern China, Liao Shihao brews handfuls of locally grown beans into steaming cups of coffee, a modern twist on the region’s traditional drink.For centuries, Pu’er in Yunnan province has given its name to a type of richly fermented tea — sometimes styled “pu-erh” — famous across East Asia and beyond.But as younger Chinese cultivate a taste for punchy espressos, frothy lattes and flat whites, growers are increasingly branching out into tea’s historic rival.”People are coming to try our hand-drip coffee… and more fully experience the flavours it brings,” Liao, 25, told AFP.”In the past, they mostly went for commercialised coffee, and wouldn’t dabble in the artisanal varieties,” he said.Liao’s family has run the Xiaowazi, or Little Hollow, coffee plantation for three generations.Nestled in a shady valley, spindly coffee trees line its steep hillsides, their cherry-like fruit drying on wooden pallets outside.When AFP visited this month, clusters of tourists sipped boutique brews in the airy cafe overlooking its verdant slopes.”It’s very good,” said Cai Shuwen, 21, as he perched on a bar stool lifting sample after sample to his lips.”Even though some beans are more astringent than I imagined, others have exceeded my expectations.”- Brewing success -Every year, Pu’er’s plantations sell tens of thousands of tons of coffee to major Chinese cities, according to government data.In metropolises such as Beijing and Shanghai, a thriving cafe scene has emerged in recent years, driven by people aged between 20 and 40.To Liao, a trained roaster and barista, coffee from his home region possesses “a creamy flavour with a silky, viscous mouthfeel”.Modern commercial plantations only sprang up in Pu’er in the 1980s, and the area is still better known for its centuries-old tea trade.Liao’s grandfather, Liao Xiugui, said “nobody knew anything about coffee” when he arrived in Pu’er a few decades ago.At the time, the older man was one of very few people in China who had studied coffee cultivation.But the region’s relatively high altitude and temperate climate were well-suited to the unfamiliar crop, the now 83-year-old told AFP.”The quality of the coffee we plant here is strong but not too bitter, floral but not too heady, and slightly fruity,” he added.Free from artificial pesticides and interspersed with other species for biodiversity, Little Hollow yields about 500 tons of raw coffee fruit per year.Liao Xiugui himself drinks two or three cups a day, and credits the caffeinated beverage for keeping him spry in his advanced years.”Drinking coffee can make you younger and healthier… and prevent ageing,” he smiled.”Also, everyone is tired at work these days… and they want to give their brains a boost.”- Richer pickings -China’s coffee output has risen dramatically in recent years, though it still lags far behind traditional powerhouses such as Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia.Yunnan, near three borders with Southeast Asian nations, accounts for virtually all of China’s coffee production, much of it concentrated in Pu’er.On a visit to Yunnan last month, President Xi Jinping said the province’s coffee “represents China”, according to state media.Keen to further expand the sector, officials have rolled out policies to improve production, attract investment and boost exports, according to government statements.They have also merged coffee production with tourism, dovetailing with a central government push to increase domestic consumption.Longtime farmer Yu Dun, 51, said she had opened new income streams with plantation tours, homestays and a restaurant fusing coffee with the cuisine of her native Dai ethnicity.Her prospects were bright, she said, adding that she also earned “10 times” more revenue from her beans since learning to process and roast them herself.”We used to say only rich people could drink coffee, but that’s all changed now,” she said.