In ‘big trouble’? The factors determining Iran’s future

Over two weeks of protests mark the most serious challenge in years to Iran’s theocratic leadership in their scale and nature but it is too early to predict the immediate demise of the Islamic republic, analysts say.The demonstrations moved from protesting economic grievances to demanding a wholesale change from the clerical system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah. The authorities have unleashed a crackdown that, according to rights groups, has left hundreds dead while the rule of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, remains intact.”These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris told AFP.She said it was unclear if the protests would unseat the leadership, pointing to “the sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus”.The Iranian authorities have called their own counter rallies, with thousands attending on Monday.Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, said: “At this point, I still don’t assess that the fall of the regime is imminent. That said, I am less confident in this assessment than in the past.”These are the key factors seen by analysts as determining whether the Islamic republic’s leadership will hold on to power.- Sustained protests – A key factor is “simply the size of protests; they are growing, but have not reached the critical mass that would represent a point of no return,” said Juneau. The protest movement began with strikes at the Tehran bazaar on December 28 but erupted into a full-scale challenge with mass rallies in the capital and other cities from Thursday.The last major protests were the 2022-2023 demonstrations sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini who had been arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code for women. In 2009, mass rallies took place after disputed elections.But a multi-day internet shutdown imposed by Iranian authorities has hampered the ability to determine the magnitude of the current demonstrations, with fewer videos emerging.Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Yale University, said “the protesters still suffer from not having durable organised networks that can withstand oppression”.He said one option would be to “organise strikes in a strategic sector” but this required leadership that was still lacking.- Cohesion in the elite – While the situation on the streets is of paramount importance, analysts say there is little chance of a change without cracks and defections in the security forces and leadership.So far there has been no sign of this, with all the pillars of the Islamic republic from parliament to the president to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) lining up behind Khamenei’s defiant line expressed in a speech on Friday.”At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime. Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse,” said Sciences Po’s Grajewski.Jason Brodsky, policy director at US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran, said the protests were “historic”.But he added: “It’s going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall,” including “defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic’s political elite”.- Israeli or US military intervention -US President Donald Trump, who has threatened military retaliation over the crackdown, announced 25 percent tariffs on Monday against Iran’s trading partners.The White House said Trump was prioritising a diplomatic response, and has not ruled out strikes, after having briefly joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June.That war resulted in the killing of several top Iranian security officials, forced Khamenei to go into hiding and revealed Israel’s deep intelligence penetration of the Islamic republic.US strikes would upend the situation, analysts say. The Iranian foreign ministry said on Monday it has channels of communication open with Washington despite the lack of diplomatic relations.”A direct US military intervention would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the crisis,” said Grajewski.Juneau added: “The regime is more vulnerable than it has been, domestically and geopolitically, since the worst years of the Iran-Iraq war” that lasted from 1980-1988.- Organised opposition – The US-based son of the ousted shah, Reza Pahlavi, has taken a major role in calling for protests and pro-monarchy slogans have been common chants.But with no real political opposition remaining inside Iran, the diaspora remains critically divided between political factions known for fighting each other as much as the Islamic republic.”There needs to be a leadership coalition that truly represents a broad swathe of Iranians and not just one political faction,” said Azizi.- Khamenei’s health – Khamenei has now been in power since 1989 when he became supreme leader, a post for life, following the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini.He survived the war with Israel and appeared in public on Friday to denounce the protests in typically defiant style.But uncertainty has long reigned over who could succeed him, with options including his shadowy but powerful son Mojtaba or power gravitating to a committee rather than an individual.Such a scenario between the status quo and a complete change could see “a more or less formal takeover by the Revolutionary Guards”, said Juneau.

Crise USA-Venezuela: Trump recevra l’opposante Machado, libération de détenus politiques

Le président américain Donald Trump va recevoir jeudi la cheffe de l’opposition vénézuélienne et prix Nobel de la paix Maria Corina Machado, au moment où les libérations de détenus politiques au Venezuela se poursuivent au compte-gouttes.Le président américain a laissé entendre qu’elle pourrait lui remettre sa distinction, alors qu’il l’a écartée pour le moment des …

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Iran: la répression s’accentue, Trump menace les partenaires de Téhéran de sanctions

Le président américain Donald Trump a menacé lundi les partenaires commerciaux de l’Iran de sanctions douanières, au moment où selon une ONG le bilan de la répression des manifestations contre le pouvoir dépasse les 600 morts.Donald Trump, qui a menacé plusieurs fois d’intervenir militairement, a annoncé lundi que tout pays commerçant avec l’Iran serait frappé …

Iran: la répression s’accentue, Trump menace les partenaires de Téhéran de sanctions Read More »

Trump announces tariffs on Iran trade partners as protest toll rises

US President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people.Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with military intervention, said in a social media post on Monday that the new levies would “immediately” hit the Islamic republic’s trading partners who also do business with the United States.”This Order is final and conclusive,” he wrote, without specifying who they will affect. Iran’s main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to economic database Trading Economics.Trump has been mulling his options on Iran, which has been roiled by more than two weeks of demonstrations that have defied a near-total internet blackout and lethal force.Sparked by economic grievances, the nationwide protests have grown into one of the biggest challenges yet to the theocratic system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the shah.Iranian authorities have blamed foreign interference for stoking the unrest and staged their own nationwide counter-rallies.Rights groups warned that the severed communications were aimed at masking a rising death toll. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned the death toll was likely much higher — “according to some estimates more than 6,000”.The internet shutdown has made it “extremely difficult to independently verify these reports”, IHR said, adding that an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested. “The international community has a duty to protect civilian protesters against mass killing by the Islamic republic,” said IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam. The White House said Monday that Trump remained “unafraid” to deploy military force against Iran, but was pursuing diplomacy as a first resort.  – ‘Four-front war’ -Iran on Monday sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed as proof that the protest movement was defeated.In power since 1989 and now 86, Khamenei said the pro-government turnout was a “warning” to the United States. “These massive rallies, full of determination, have thwarted the plan of foreign enemies that were supposed to be carried out by domestic mercenaries,” he said, according to state TV, referring to pro-government demonstrations. In the capital Tehran, state TV showed people brandishing the national flag and prayers read for victims of what the government has termed “riots”. At Enghelab (Revolution) Square, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the crowd that Iran was fighting a “four-front war” listing economic war, psychological war, “military war” with the United States and Israel, and “today a war against terrorists” — a reference to the protests. Flanked by the slogans “Death to Israel, Death to America” in Persian, he vowed the Iranian military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” if attacked. But Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate”.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran that Iran was “not seeking war but is fully prepared for war”, while calling for “fair” negotiations.Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a channel of communication was open between Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff despite the lack of diplomatic relations. Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah who has been vocal in calling for protests, told CBS news the government was “trying to trick the world into thinking that (it) is ready to negotiate once again”. He said Trump was “a man that means what he says and says what he means” and who “knows what’s at stake”.”The red line that was drawn has been definitely surpassed by this regime.” – ‘Respect for their rights’ -State outlets were at pains to present a picture of calm returning in Tehran, broadcasting images of smooth-flowing traffic. Tehran Governor Mohammad-Sadegh Motamedian insisted in televised comments that “the number of protests is decreasing”. Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large pro-government rallies. The government has declared three days of national mourning for those killed.The European Union has voiced support for the protesters and on Monday said it was “looking into” imposing additional sanctions on Iran over the repression of demonstrations. The European Parliament also announced it had banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from the assembly’s premises. French President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement condemning “the state violence that indiscriminately targets Iranian women and men who courageously demand respect for their rights”. Tehran ally Russia, for its part, slammed what it called attempts by “foreign powers” to interfere in Iran, state media reported, in Moscow’s first reaction to the protests.

Trump announces tariffs on Iran trade partners as protest toll rises

US President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people.Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with military intervention, said in a social media post on Monday that the new levies would “immediately” hit the Islamic republic’s trading partners who also do business with the United States.”This Order is final and conclusive,” he wrote, without specifying who they will affect. Iran’s main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, according to economic database Trading Economics.Trump has been mulling his options on Iran, which has been roiled by more than two weeks of demonstrations that have defied a near-total internet blackout and lethal force.Sparked by economic grievances, the nationwide protests have grown into one of the biggest challenges yet to the theocratic system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the shah.Iranian authorities have blamed foreign interference for stoking the unrest and staged their own nationwide counter-rallies.Rights groups warned that the severed communications were aimed at masking a rising death toll. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned the death toll was likely much higher — “according to some estimates more than 6,000”.The internet shutdown has made it “extremely difficult to independently verify these reports”, IHR said, adding that an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested. “The international community has a duty to protect civilian protesters against mass killing by the Islamic republic,” said IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam. The White House said Monday that Trump remained “unafraid” to deploy military force against Iran, but was pursuing diplomacy as a first resort.  – ‘Four-front war’ -Iran on Monday sought to regain control of the streets with mass nationwide rallies that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed as proof that the protest movement was defeated.In power since 1989 and now 86, Khamenei said the pro-government turnout was a “warning” to the United States. “These massive rallies, full of determination, have thwarted the plan of foreign enemies that were supposed to be carried out by domestic mercenaries,” he said, according to state TV, referring to pro-government demonstrations. In the capital Tehran, state TV showed people brandishing the national flag and prayers read for victims of what the government has termed “riots”. At Enghelab (Revolution) Square, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the crowd that Iran was fighting a “four-front war” listing economic war, psychological war, “military war” with the United States and Israel, and “today a war against terrorists” — a reference to the protests. Flanked by the slogans “Death to Israel, Death to America” in Persian, he vowed the Iranian military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” if attacked. But Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate”.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran that Iran was “not seeking war but is fully prepared for war”, while calling for “fair” negotiations.Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said a channel of communication was open between Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff despite the lack of diplomatic relations. Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah who has been vocal in calling for protests, told CBS news the government was “trying to trick the world into thinking that (it) is ready to negotiate once again”. He said Trump was “a man that means what he says and says what he means” and who “knows what’s at stake”.”The red line that was drawn has been definitely surpassed by this regime.” – ‘Respect for their rights’ -State outlets were at pains to present a picture of calm returning in Tehran, broadcasting images of smooth-flowing traffic. Tehran Governor Mohammad-Sadegh Motamedian insisted in televised comments that “the number of protests is decreasing”. Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large pro-government rallies. The government has declared three days of national mourning for those killed.The European Union has voiced support for the protesters and on Monday said it was “looking into” imposing additional sanctions on Iran over the repression of demonstrations. The European Parliament also announced it had banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from the assembly’s premises. French President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement condemning “the state violence that indiscriminately targets Iranian women and men who courageously demand respect for their rights”. Tehran ally Russia, for its part, slammed what it called attempts by “foreign powers” to interfere in Iran, state media reported, in Moscow’s first reaction to the protests.

AI helps fuel new era of medical self-testing

Beyond smart watches and rings, artificial intelligence is being used to make self-testing for major diseases more readily available — from headsets that detect early signs of Alzheimer’s to an iris-scanning app that helps spot cancer.”The reason preventive medicine doesn’t work right now is because you don’t want to go to the doctor all the time to get things tested,” says Ramses Alcaide, co-founder and CEO of startup Neurable.”But what about if you knew when you needed to go to the doctor?”Connected rings, bracelets and watches — which were everywhere at last week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas — can already monitor heart rate, blood pressure and glucose levels, with varying degrees of accuracy.These gadgets are in high demand from consumers. A recent study published by OpenAI showed that more than 200 million internet users check ChatGPT every week for information on health topics.On Wednesday, OpenAI even launched a chatbot that can draw on a user’s medical records and other data collected by wearable devices, with their consent, to inform its responses.Using electroencephalogram (EEG) technology, Neurable has developed a headset that records and deciphers brain activity.The linked app compares data with the user’s medical history to check for any deviation, a possible sign of a problem, said Alcaide.”Apple Watch can pick up Parkinson’s, but it can only pick it up once you have a tremor,” Alcaide said. “Your brain has been fighting that Parkinson’s for over 10 years.”With EEG technology, “you can pick these things up before you actually see physical symptoms of them. And this is just one example.”- Detection before symptoms -Some people have reservations about the capabilities of such devices. “I don’t think that wearable EEG devices are reliable enough,” said Anna Wexler, a University of Pennsylvania professor who studies consumer detection products, although she acknowledges that “AI has expanded the possibilities of these devices.”While Neurable’s product cannot provide an actual diagnosis, it does offer a warning. It can also detect signs of depression and early development of Alzheimer’s disease.Neurable is working with the Ukrainian military to evaluate the mental health of soldiers on the front lines of the war with Russia, as well as former prisoners of war, in order to detect post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).French startup NAOX meanwhile has developed EEG earbuds linked to a small box that can help patients with epilepsy.Rather than detect seizures, which are “very rare,” the device recognizes “spikes” — quick, abnormal electrical shocks in the brain that are “much more difficult to see,” said NAOX’s chief of innovation Marc Vaillaud, a doctor by training.NAOX’s device — which has been cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration — is designed to be worn at night, to track several hours of data at a time.The company is working with the Rothschild and Lariboisiere hospitals in Paris to try to better understand the links between these brain “spikes” and Alzheimer’s disease, which have been raised in scientific papers.Advances in AI and technology in general have paved the way for the miniaturization of cheaper detection devices — a far cry from the heavy machinery once seen in medical offices and hospitals.IriHealth is preparing to launch, for only about $50, a small smartphone extension that would scan a user’s iris.The gadget relies on iridology, a technique by which iris colors and markings are believed to reveal information about a person’s health, but which is generally considered scientifically unreliable.But the founders of IriHealth — a spin-off of biometrics specialist IriTech — are convinced that their device can be effective in detecting anomalies in the colon, and potentially the lungs or the liver.Company spokesman Tommy Phan said IriHealth had found its device to be 81 percent accurate among patients who already have been diagnosed with colon cancer.

Ex-Fed chiefs, lawmakers slam US probe into Jerome Powell

Former Federal Reserve chiefs on Monday sharply criticized a US criminal probe into current chair Jerome Powell, calling it an “unprecedented attempt” to undermine the central bank’s independence.Two Republican senators joined in rebuking the Trump administration and questioned the credibility of the Department of Justice (DOJ) in targeting Powell, whom the US president has long sought to replace in a push for lower interest rates.On Sunday, Powell revealed that the Fed received grand jury subpoenas and threats of a criminal indictment relating to Senate testimony he gave in June.The issue at hand was a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Last year, President Donald Trump floated the possibility of firing Powell over cost overruns for the historic buildings’ facelift.On Monday, ex-Fed chiefs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen joined other former economic leaders in slamming the DOJ’s probe.In a joint statement, they called it “an unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks” to undermine the Fed’s independence.”This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies more broadly,” the statement added. “It has no place in the United States.”In an extraordinary statement on Sunday, Powell himself rebuked the administration, dismissing the building renovation and his testimony before Congress as “pretexts.””The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” he said.He vowed to carry out his duties “without political fear or favor.”Separately, New York Fed President John Williams said that historic precedent of political influence on monetary policy typically leads to “unfortunate” outcomes like inflation.- Stocks hit records -Despite worries spurred by the probe, US stock indices closed at records. “The fact that market measures of inflation expectations have remained calm indicates that markets are brushing off the investigation as having little, if any, impact on Fed independence,” said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.The independent Fed has a dual mandate to keep prices stable and unemployment low. Its main tool is setting a benchmark interest rate that influences the price of US Treasury bonds and borrowing costs.Trump has regularly slammed Powell, calling him a “numbskull” and “moron” for the Fed’s policy decisions and not cutting borrowing costs more sharply.On Monday, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that Powell “has proven he’s not very good at his job.””As to whether he’s a criminal, that’s an answer the Department of Justice is going to have to find,” she said.- Republican pushback -The DOJ’s probe has drawn criticism from both sides of the political aisle.Republican Thom Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, vowed Sunday to oppose the confirmation of any Fed nominee, including for the next Fed chief, until the legal matter is “fully resolved.””It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question,” he said.Another Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, supported Tillis’ move, calling the investigation “nothing more than an attempt at coercion.”Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer earlier dubbed the probe an assault on the Fed’s independence.David Wessel, a senior fellow at Washington think tank the Brookings Institution warned of serious consequences if the Fed came under Trump’s control.Elected politicians could be inclined to set interest rates low to boost the economy ahead of elections, for instance.If Trump succeeds in influencing the Fed, the US economy could see “more inflation, and the willingness of global investors to lend money to the Treasury will diminish somewhat,” Wessel told AFP.Trump nominated Powell as Fed chair during his first presidency. Powell’s term as chair ends in May, but he could stay on the Fed’s board until 2028.Last year, Trump separately attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations.

US Supreme Court to weigh transgender athlete bans

The US Supreme Court on Tuesday wades into the hot-button issue of transgender athletes in girls’ and women’s sports.The conservative-dominated court is to hear challenges to state laws in Idaho and West Virginia banning transgender athletes from female competition.More than two dozen US states have passed laws in recent years barring athletes who were assigned as male at birth from taking part in girls’ or women’s sports.The Idaho case to be heard by the nine justices stems from the Republican-led state’s 2020 “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.”The act was challenged by a transgender athlete at an Idaho university, and lower courts ruled that it violates the equal protection clause of the US Constitution.West Virginia’s 2021 Save Women’s Sports Act was challenged by a middle school student who was not allowed to compete for the girls’ track team.An appeals court ruled that the ban amounted to discrimination on the basis of sex and violated Title IX, the federal civil rights law which prohibits sex-based discrimination in educational programs.Last February, President Donald Trump issued an executive order aimed at banning transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports after campaigning for the White House on the issue.”From now on women’s sports will be only for women,” Trump said. “With this executive order the war on women’s sports is over.”The executive order allows federal agencies to deny funding to schools that allow transgender athletes to compete on girls’ or women’s teams.- UPenn case a lightning rod -University of Pennsylvania swimmer Lia Thomas became a lightning rod in the debate over transgender athletes in women’s sports after competing in female collegiate meets in 2022. Critics and some fellow swimmers said Thomas, who had earlier swum on UPenn’s men’s team, should not have been allowed to compete against women due to an unfair physiological advantage.UPenn eventually agreed to ban transgender athletes from its women’s sports teams, settling a federal civil rights complaint stemming from the furor around Thomas.The move followed an investigation by the Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights which found the university had violated Title IX by allowing Thomas to compete in women’s competitions.Conservatives outnumber liberals six to three on the Supreme Court, and the justices weighed in on two high-profile transgender cases last year.They upheld a Tennessee state law banning gender-affirming medical treatment for transgender minors and backed a move by Trump to have transgender troops dismissed from the military.The Supreme Court is expected to rule in June or early July.

Aux Etats-Unis, une fronde se lève pour préserver la Fed face à Trump

Des personnalités américaines de tous bords ont défendu lundi avec force l’indépendance de la banque centrale des Etats-Unis, selon elles menacées par une tentative de déstabilisation inédite du gouvernement Trump.En rendant publique dimanche soir une procédure lancée à son encontre par le ministère américain de la Justice, le président de la Réserve fédérale (Fed) Jerome Powell a déclenché une foule de marques de soutien.Ses prédécesseurs à la Fed ont dénoncé une instrumentalisation de la justice “sans précédent” visant à “saper l’indépendance” de l’institution monétaire. Une telle démarche “n’a pas sa place aux Etats-Unis”, ont affirmé dans un communiqué Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke et Janet Yellen, associés à d’autres personnalités économiques de premier plan.”L’histoire nous montre que quand des tentatives indues de peser sur la politique monétaire parviennent à leurs fins, cela conduit souvent à des résultats très regrettables, notamment une instabilité économique et une inflation élevée”, a déclaré de son côté un haut responsable actuel de la banque centrale, le président de la Fed de New York John Williams, lors d’un événement organisé dans sa ville.  Quant au gouverneur de la Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, il a qualifié Jerome Powell de “modèle d’intégrité”.- Des républicains se rebiffent -Des parlementaires républicains ont aussi manifesté leur désapprobation, alors que le parti présidentiel a jusqu’ici peu résisté aux initiatives de la Maison Blanche.”Les enjeux sont trop élevés pour fermer les yeux: si la Réserve fédérale perd son indépendance, la stabilité de nos marchés et de l’économie dans son ensemble en souffrira”, a écrit sur X la sénatrice de l’Alaska Lisa Murkowski.Comme son collègue Thom Tillis, elle a prévenu qu’elle n’adouberait aucun candidat de Donald Trump à un poste au sommet de la Fed tant que cette affaire perdurera.Le chef d’Etat peut annoncer à tout moment le nom de la personne qu’il veut voir prendre la suite de Jerome Powell, dont le mandat de président prend fin en mai.Donald Trump a lui-même présenté son conseiller économique Kevin Hassett comme favori mais il ménage un certain suspens.Il veut une “colombe” décomplexée à la tête de la Fed, soit, dans le jargon de banque centrale, une personne fermement décidée à réduire les taux d’intérêt, peu regardante sur le niveau de l’inflation. – “Prétexte” -C’est par une déclaration solennelle filmée que le très pondéré Jerome Powell a annoncé dimanche soir que le ministère de la Justice avait lancé une enquête pouvant conduire à des poursuites pénales à son encontre.Il a affirmé sans détour que la procédure était fondée sur un “prétexte”, l’important coût des travaux de rénovation du siège de la Fed à Washington, qui cache selon lui la raison véritable: l’institution n’a pas fourni à Donald Trump les baisses de taux d’intérêt qu’il attendait.Ce nouveau rebondissement a surpris les investisseurs, qui apprécient généralement les baisses de taux directeurs mais sont aussi attachés à l’indépendance de la Fed, garde-fou contre l’inflation.Après une ouverture dans le rouge, la Bourse de New York a toutefois renversé la vapeur et terminé en hausse.”Les marchés se disent que cette enquête aura peu, voire pas d’impact sur l’indépendance de la Fed” au bout du compte, selon Bernard Yaros, d’Oxford Economics. Outre Jerome Powell, Donald Trump a tenté de révoquer une autre responsable de la Fed, Lisa Cook. L’affaire arrive ce mois-ci devant la Cour suprême.