Pas de répit dans les incendies à Los Angeles, où le vent souffle

Los Angeles ne connaît pas de répit: des vents chauds et puissants continuent de souffler dans la nuit de mardi à mercredi et d’attiser plus encore les flammes qui défigurent la deuxième ville des Etats-Unis depuis une semaine et ont fait au moins 25 morts.Les services de météo américains (NWS) ont mis en garde contre des rafales pouvant atteindre les 110 km/h entre 03H00 du matin (11H00 GMT) et 15H00 (23h00 GMT) mercredi.Des parties du comté de Los Angeles et de celui — voisin — de Ventura ont été placées en statut de “situation particulièrement dangereuse”.Le taux d’humidité, très faible, et la végétation, très sèche, peuvent conduire à une “expansion ultrarapide du feu” dans certaines zones, mettent en garde les météorologues, qui ont aussi placé une grande partie du sud de la Californie en alerte rouge.Les dégâts sont immenses: plus de 12.000 habitations, bâtiments et véhicules ont été détruits ou endommagés, et des quartiers entiers rasés. Quelque 88.000 personnes sont toujours déplacées et au moins 25 décédées, selon un nouveau bilan.Refusant de quitter le complexe d’appartements qu’il gère à Pacific Palisades, Jeff Ridgway a expliqué à l’AFP l’avoir préservé des flammes en puisant des seaux d’eau dans la piscine pour éteindre un eucalyptus dangereusement proche.”C’était la guerre”, a raconté ce sexagénaire. “Mais j’étais têtu, je me suis battu”.Fred Busche, un autre habitant, a eu moins de chance. “Ma maison a brûlé, je le sais. J’ai vu des photos: il ne reste que la cheminée. Mais j’ai besoin de le voir de mes propres yeux pour y croire”, a-t-il confié à l’AFP.- “Tout va bien se passer” -Les deux principaux incendies ont parcouru 9.700 hectares dans le quartier huppé de Pacific Palisades, et plus de 5.700 dans la ville d’Altadena, juste au nord de Los Angeles.Une enquête visant à déterminer les causes des incendies a été lancée mardi par les autorités fédérales, qui ont toutefois averti que cela prendrait du temps. “Nous savons que vous voulez des réponses, (vous) le méritez. L’ATF vous donnera (des) réponses une fois l’enquête terminée et approfondie”, a déclaré Jose Medina, représentant cette agence en charge notamment des explosifs et des armes.Depuis des jours, des équipes accompagnées de chiens recherchent des victimes dans les ruines. Lundi, 1.800 habitations ont été inspectées, selon le shérif du comté de Los Angeles, Robert Luna. “La bonne nouvelle c’est que n’avons trouvé aucun corps”, a-t-il indiqué. Ces incendies, parmi les pires de l’histoire de la Californie, pourraient être les plus coûteux jamais connus: entre 250 et 275 milliards de dollars selon les estimations provisoires de la société privée AccuWeather. Des centaines de milliers d’enfants ont repris l’école lundi, mais les établissements scolaires situés dans les zones évacuées restent fermés.Au total, des milliers de pompiers sont à pied d’oeuvre. Des renforts humains et matériels, dont des dizaines de camions citernes, ont été acheminés.Ils ont été mobilisés notamment sur un nouveau foyer qui s’est déclenché tard lundi, à Oxnard, à 80 km de Los Angeles.- “Poussière fine” -Après des problèmes pour combattre les flammes dans le secteur de Pacific Palisades en raison de bouches d’incendie à sec ou avec une faible pression, qui ont notamment entraîné des critiques sur la gestion des feux, le chef des pompiers Anthony Marrone a assuré mardi qu’il y avait bien de “l’eau et de la pression” dans le secteur d’Altadena.Cible de ces critiques, venant notamment du prochain président républicain des Etats-Unis Donald Trump, le gouverneur démocrate de Californie Gavin Newsom a demandé “un examen indépendant complet” des services de distribution d’eau de Los Angeles.Il a par ailleurs ordonné mardi aux équipes de déblayage de se tenir prêtes à intervenir, les autorités craignant que des orages hivernaux ne provoquent des coulées de boue.Le services de santé ont par ailleurs alerté sur les risques sanitaires liés aux fumées et aux cendres générées par les brasiers et déplacées par les vents.”Les cendres ne sont pas que de la saleté. C’est de la poussière fine qui peut irriter ou endommager votre système respiratoire et d’autres parties de votre corps”, a prévenu Anish Mahajan, du service de santé publique du comté. Les autorités ont appelé la population à porter un masque.Les vents de Santa Ana, qui ont attisé les flammes à une vitesse folle, sont un classique des automnes et des hivers californiens. Mais ils ont atteint cette fois une intensité inédite depuis 2011, selon les météorologues, avec des rafales soufflant jusqu’à 160 km/h la semaine passée.De quoi propager le feu à la vitesse de l’éclair, d’autant que deux années très pluvieuses avaient fait naître une végétation luxuriante, qui s’est ensuite desséchée au cours de huit mois sans précipitation.Les scientifiques rappellent régulièrement que le changement climatique augmente la fréquence des événements météorologiques extrêmes.

La mégafusée d’Elon Musk Starship prête pour un 7e vol test

L’entreprise américaine SpaceX va tenter une nouvelle fois mercredi de rattraper le premier étage de sa mégafusée Starship, la plus grande et la plus puissante jamais construite, un exploit technique qu’elle n’a réussi qu’une seule fois.La société de l’homme le plus riche du monde, Elon Musk, était parvenue en octobre dernier à réaliser cette impressionnante manœuvre, sous les regards médusés de nombreux internautes et spectateurs attroupés sur place.Mais un mois plus tard, elle avait échoué à reproduire ce succès devant le président élu Donald Trump, qui avait fait le déplacement. Haute de 123 mètres, soit la taille d’un immeuble d’environ 40 étages, Starship doit décoller pour ce septième vol test à partir de 16H00 locales (22H00 GMT) depuis une base spatiale de l’entreprise située au Texas.Une autre fenêtre de lancement est prévue jeudi à la même heure, selon le régulateur américain de l’aviation.Après le décollage, les deux étages de la fusée – le propulseur nommé Super Heavy et le vaisseau Starship donnant le nom à l’ensemble – doivent se séparer et le propulseur doit entamer sa descente pour revenir sur son pas de tir.Au lieu de se poser ensuite verticalement comme le font les propulseurs d’autres fusées, il doit alors être immobilisé par des bras mécaniques installés sur la tour de lancement. Une manœuvre inédite dans l’histoire du développement spatial.- Impact environnemental -Il s’agira du septième vol test de Starship, les premiers s’étant soldés par des explosions – volontaires ou non – de l’appareil. A chaque nouveau vol, l’entreprise fait évoluer sa fusée.Depuis le dernier essai, des “améliorations majeures” ont été apportées, notamment sur le système de propulsion et le bouclier thermique, a déclaré SpaceX sur son site. Mercredi, elle tentera par ailleurs lors du vol un premier déploiement de chargement dans l’espace.  La société développe à toute vitesse ses fusées en misant sur de multiples lancements de prototypes afin de corriger rapidement les problèmes rencontrés en situation réelle de vol.Si ce mantra a fait son succès, SpaceX dominant aujourd’hui le marché des lancements en orbite, il n’est pas exempt de critiques.Des associations ont ainsi porté plainte contre les autorités américaines en les accusant d’en avoir mal évalué l’impact environnemental, alors que la base spatiale texane est située à proximité de zones protégées.- Carte blanche? -La fusée Starship est pensée pour être à terme entièrement réutilisable, une caractéristique qui permettrait de réduire considérablement les coûts et les ressources nécessaires.Toutefois, cette spécificité permet également l’augmentation de la cadence des lancements, qui causent notamment une pollution sonore importante.A son retour au pouvoir, Donald Trump devrait lever nombre de réglementations environnementales, ce qui inquiète des habitants vivant à proximité de la base, qui craignent qu’une carte blanche ne soit donnée au richissime Elon Musk.L’entrepreneur, également patron de Tesla et propriétaire du réseau social X, a dépensé en 2024 des dizaines de millions de dollars pour soutenir la campagne du républicain et a décroché en échange un poste de conseiller, faisant fi de ses nombreux conflits d’intérêts avec le gouvernement. Bien au contraire, il compte utiliser sa proximité avec le futur président pour mener à terme son projet de “coloniser Mars” grâce à Starship. Durant sa campagne, Donald Trump a ainsi promis d’aller sur “Mars avant la fin de (s)on mandat”.Avant de s’envoler vers la planète rouge, cette mégafusée devrait permettre dans un premier temps à la Nasa de renvoyer ses astronautes sur la surface de la Lune.

Asian equities mixed as US inflation, China data loom

Asian markets swung Wednesday, continuing their yo-yo start to the year as traders assess the economic outlook with Donald Trump back in the White House, with focus now on the release of key US inflation data.A below-forecast read on wholesale prices provided a little relief and helped the Dow and S&P 500 end in the green, though sentiment remains clouded by a resignation to the idea that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as much as hoped this year.Blockbuster employment figures on Friday, which followed a better-than-expected read on job openings, reinforced the view that the world’s top economy and labour market were still in rude health.That came after the central bank in December indicated in its so-called “dot plot” that it would likely only cut rates twice in 2025, compared with four previously flagged — taking the wind out the sails of a market rally at the end of the year.Investors will be poring over the consumer price index later Wednesday, with analysts warning that a strong reading could even stoke talk of a possible rate hike as the Fed’s next move.SWBC’s Christopher Brigati wrote in a commentary: “Even prior to the release of the dot plot in December, we’ve been cautious about the increasing possibility that the Fed would have to dial back further rate cuts in 2025, calling for no cuts during the year.”It appears that there is growing sentiment that the Fed will be less accommodating going forward. Furthermore, it is appearing increasingly likely that the Fed’s rate-cutting efforts beginning in September may have been premature, given more recent economic data.”After Wall Street’s broadly positive lead, Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila rose, while Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei fell.Also in focus this week is the release of Chinese 2024 growth data, with expectations that it could come in below the previous year and be among the slowest in more than three decades.Leaders have unveiled a string of measures to reignite the economy, with a particular emphasis on consumers and the troubled property sector, though there are fears the return of Trump could see another painful China-US trade war.The president-elect has already warned he will impose tariffs of as much as 60 percent on imports from the country, and observers say Beijing has likely kept its powder dry with regards stimulus as it prepares for the next four years.”China’s policy response will likely remain reactive but responsive in nature, to defend against any significant downside risks. The long-term economic transition to a more sustainable model of growth remains intact,” said Peiqian Liu, Asia economist at Fidelity International.”We expect more details on China’s strategic growth plans to be unveiled in its 15th Five Year Plan in 2025.”- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 38,628.61 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 19,178.20Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,234.90Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0300 from $1.0310 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2197 from $1.2211Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.90 yen from 157.98 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.44 pence from 84.40 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $77.63 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $79.99 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 42,518.28 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,201.54 (close)

How the world discovered the Nazi death camps

Images of what the Allies found when they liberated the Nazi death camps towards the end of World War II brought the horror of the Holocaust to global attention.Many of the ghastly pictures were at first held back from the broader public, partly out of concern for those with missing relatives.The concentration and extermination camps were liberated one by one as the Allied armies closed in on Berlin in the final days of the 1939-1945 war.The first was the Majdanek camp near Lublin in eastern Poland, whose surviving prisoners were freed by the Soviet Red Army on July 24, 1944. The last camps to be liberated were Theresienstadt, near Prague, just after Germany surrendered on May 8, 1945, and Stutthof near Gdansk in northern Poland.- ‘Death Marches’ -In June 1944, SS leader Heinrich Himmler ordered some camps to be evacuated before they were reached by Allied troops, with prisoners to be transferred to other camps.SS officers were ordered to cover up all traces of crimes before fleeing.The sprawling Auschwitz-Birkenau complex in southern Poland, the largest concentration camp, was gradually dismantled from mid-1944 and 60,000 emaciated prisoners forced onto “Death Marches” to other camps.When the Soviets arrived on January 27, 1945, only 7,000 prisoners remained, mostly those who had been unable to walk with the others.- Images not widely shared -The discovery of the first camps had little impact on the public at large because the images were not widely shared. Russian and Polish investigators photographed the camps at Majdanek and Auschwitz-Birkenau, and US army photographers made a documentary on Struthof, the only Nazi concentration camp in what is now France. French authorities in particular did not want the images broadcast to avoid alarming people with relatives missing after being deported, captured or conscripted.A turning point came on April 6, 1945, with the discovery of the Ohrdruf concentration camp, an annex of the Buchenwald camp in Germany.- ‘Indescribable horror’ -When American forces — accompanied by US war correspondent Meyer Levin and AFP photographer Eric Schwab — entered Ohrdruf, they came across a still-blazing inferno and skeletal prisoners executed with a bullet to the head.The Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe, Dwight Eisenhower, visited the camp on April 12, describing afterwards “conditions of indescribable horror”.The Allied leadership decided immediately that all censorship should be lifted so the world could see evidence of the Nazi atrocities.That evening, France’s communist daily Ce Soir published on its front page a picture of a mass grave.Days later Eisenhower said journalists should visit camps “where the evidence of bestiality and cruelty is so overpowering as to leave no doubt in their minds about the normal practices of the Germans.”

Renewed US trade war threatens China’s ‘lifeline’

China might not be able to rely on trade to steer it out of trouble as blistering tariffs being considered by US President-elect Donald Trump threaten an already struggling economy.Exports have historically represented a key engine in the world’s number two economy, where authorities will release 2024 growth data on Friday that is expected to be among the lowest in decades.Worse still, Trump’s return to the White House three days later could mean that Beijing won’t be able to rely on trade to drive activity in 2025.Exports “are likely to stay resilient in the near-term”, wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, noting that a recent surge was due in part to US importers stockpiling Chinese goods ahead of expected tariff hikes.”But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods,” she said.China’s economy likely grew 4.9 percent last year, according to an AFP survey of experts, fractionally short of the government’s five percent target and down from 5.2 percent in 2023.The increase — already the lowest in decades, apart from the Covid-19 pandemic — was helped by a record-setting year for Chinese exports.Overseas shipments reached a historic high of nearly $3.5 trillion in 2024, up 7.1 percent year-on-year, according to official statistics published on Monday.Adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year “outstripped any global surplus seen in the past century, overshadowing even the historical export powerhouses like Germany, Japan or the United States post-World War II”, wrote Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management in a note.The increase in China’s trade surplus has contributed five to six points to the growth of the country’s gross domestic product over the past three years, Francois Chimits of the Mercator Institute for China Studies told AFP.”The vitality of foreign trade has been one of the lifelines of the Chinese economy,” he said.- Policy support -That pillar of growth could come under attack in 2025, as the United States and European countries retaliate against what they call unfair competition resulting from China’s generous subsidies to its manufacturers.The European Union imposed additional customs duties in October on electric vehicles imported from China, citing distortionary trade practices by Beijing.And Trump promised during his recent US presidential campaign to slap even heftier tariffs on Chinese goods than those implemented in his first term.The specific trade imposts Trump intends to levy against China are not yet clear but the country’s export surge last year “will ignite further fury among US trade hawks”, Innes said.A potential 20 percent increase in US levies on Chinese goods would result in a 0.7-percentage-point hit to real GDP this year, according to a Goldman Sachs report.Beijing could allow the yuan to weaken in return, “pre-position” exports in third countries so that they can then be sent to the United States, or simply find new markets, Agatha Kratz of Rhodium Group told AFP.Some shifts are already palpable. China’s exports to Vietnam increased by nearly 18 percent last year, according to Chinese customs data, overtaking Japan to become its third-largest export destination.Domestically, Beijing is hoping to boost demand this year through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing and a scheme to spur consumption.The external pressure this year might necessitate even greater domestic policy support from Beijing, said Larry Hu, an economist at Macquarie Group.AFP’s survey of analysts warned that China’s growth rate could ease to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026.

China’s economy seen slowing further in 2024: AFP survey

China’s economic growth likely fell fractionally short of the government’s five percent target last year, according to an AFP survey, as leaders head into 2025 steeling for the second presidency of Donald Trump amid fears of another painful trade standoff.The reading would be the weakest the country has seen since 1990 — outside of the pandemic — as it struggles with weak domestic consumption and a protracted crisis in the once-booming property sector.The survey of economists by AFP estimated growth in the world’s number two economy hit 4.9 percent last year, down from the 5.2 percent recorded in 2023.They also warned it could ease to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026.The 2024 reading would be just shy of Beijing’s target of “around five percent” — reiterated by President Xi Jinping late last year — and likely “close enough for officials to claim success”, Harry Murphy Cruise from Moody’s Analytics told AFP.”But do not let that achievement fool you. Under the hood, the economy’s engine is struggling to get into gear,” he warned.However, Francois Chimits from the Mercator Institute for China Studies said the figure should be regarded with some scepticism as it is “often subject to strategic adjustments to reflect internal objectives”.China’s economy has so far failed to achieve a robust post-pandemic recovery as a prolonged real estate crisis spooks consumers and investors, while local governments grapple with soaring debt.Woes in the property sector are particularly concerning given the vital role it plays in fuelling growth, Chimits said.Friday’s report comes after data last week showed the country narrowly avoided slipping into deflation last month as consumers remain wary of pulling out their wallets.Beijing has recently unveiled some of the most aggressive measures in years aimed at boosting activity, including cuts to key interest rates, the easing of property purchase rules, hiking the debt ceiling for local governments and bolstering support for financial markets.- Trump 2.0 -Coupled with strong overseas demand for Chinese products — last year’s exports reached a historic high — the measures have contributed to a moderate rebound in the final quarter, experts told AFP.Without the measures, consumption would have been “much worse”, said Michelle Lam, an economist at Societe Generale.”Beijing has made some tweaks to support the buying of unsold properties by local governments,” Lam told AFP.”But the implementation has still been slow.”In one encouraging sign for the real estate sector, the total area of new residential property transactions in major cities increased 18 percent on-year in December, the finance ministry announced this month.Compounding the issues heading for Beijing is the return of Trump to the White House next week after he pledged during his campaign to impose tougher trade measures against China than those he unleashed during his first term.A hike in tariffs could batter Chinese exports — a key economic pillar made even more vital in the absence of vigorous domestic demand.A potential 20 percent increase in US levies on Chinese goods would result in a 0.7-percentage-point hit to real GDP this year, according to a Goldman Sachs report.In a move to shore up the economy in preparation for any possible headwinds, Beijing has announced a relaxation of fiscal policy in 2025 and a plan to boost consumption by subsidising the replacement of old household items.With exports facing greater uncertainty and the property sector stagnating, “officials need a new growth driver”, said Murphy Cruise.”Households could be that engine.”External pressure this year might necessitate even greater domestic policy support from Beijing, said Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Group.That could represent a “paradigm shift, with domestic demand outpacing external demand” as it did in 2009-19, he wrote.Still, economists remain sceptical about the scale of upcoming stimulus measures, the details of which are unlikely to be revealed until China’s annual parliamentary session in March.”Officials will ramp up support, but it will not offset the pain of higher tariffs,” Murphy Cruise warned.