Key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced a greater-than-expected increase to production quotas on Sunday following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered retaliation by Tehran across the Middle East. The eight-strong V8 (Voluntary Eight) group in the alliance, which includes top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia — as well as several Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s missile strikes — said they had agreed a “production adjustment” of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd).”This adjustment will be implemented in April,” they said in a statement.The text did not mention the outbreak of the Iran conflict, instead citing “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as their reasons for the increase.Before the weekend’s meeting, experts had forecast a more modest increase of 137,000 bpd. But Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, warned the agreed increase was potentially not large enough to prevent the Iran conflict causing a spike in oil prices when trading opens on Monday.Leon pointed to the possibility that Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil supplies, in retaliation.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have contacted ships to announce the strait was closed. On Sunday, Iranian state TV said an oil tanker in the strait was struck while attempting to “illegally” pass through and was sinking, showing footage of a burning tanker at sea.”If oil cannot move through Hormuz, an extra 206,000 barrels per day does very little to ease the market,” Leon said, arguing that “logistics and transit risk matter more than production targets right now”.The OPEC+ move “is unlikely to calm markets”, he said.”Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output.”- ‘Nightmare scenario’ -Besides Russia and Saudi Arabia, the V8 group within OPEC+ includes Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, all of which were targeted by Iranian attacks for a second day on Sunday.Algeria and Kazakhstan are also part of the group.Another analyst, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said that, with the fear of incoming missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, insurers cancelling contracts for vessels wanting to go through there, and jammed electronic signalling in the Gulf region, commercial shippers were scared.They are “starting to act as if the route is compromised”, he said.”A full closure for more than a few days is the nightmare scenario,” he said.A blockage of the strait could mean oil prices leaping from around $72 before the war to $120 to $150 a barrel when trading starts on Monday, he said, based on industry estimates.He and other analysts pointed to land pipelines Saudi Arabia and the UAE could use to get around shipping through the strait, but noted that would still leave a shortfall of some eight million to 10 million bpd on the market.”Those are meaningful pressure valves, but they are not a replacement for the full seaborne flow,” Innes said.While higher prices might seem a boon for OPEC+ countries, it in fact carries the risk of increasing competition from producers outside the cartel, such as the United States, Canada and Brazil.Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP that the cartel might “prefer prices of $80-90, but around $70 per barrel is the ideal price level” to cut the incentive for more investment by those rival producers.He added that Russian production has been on a downward trend since November, leaving analysts to think that it was at its maximum output.Leon, of Rystad Energy, said the only OPEC+ members “who can really boost their production are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and, to a lesser degree, Kuwait and Iraq”.

Iran’s clerical leaders vowed to avenge the death of its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and launched a fresh wave of deadly “large-scale” attacks on Sunday as Israel hit back at the capital Tehran.It came after the United States and Israel claimed to have killed Khamenei in a wave of strikes Saturday against targets in Iran, which sparked swift retaliation by the Islamic republic.Here are the latest developments.- Iran kills 5 in Israel -Iran’s latest barrage of strikes killed at least five people in central Israel, police reported. The country’s emergency service had earlier warned of casualties in Beit Shemesh, with a young girl among them. News of the deaths came after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced a fresh wave of attacks against the “enemy”.In the UAE, which has been hard-hit by Iran’s retaliation the defence ministry said on Sunday that three people had died and 58 been wounded since the strikes began. – Iran denies targeting neighbours -Iran’s powerful security chief denied on Sunday that Tehran was targeting its neighbours in the region, insisting that its retaliation was aimed at US bases. Even so, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said on Sunday it summoned the Iranian ambassador “in response to Iran’s brazen attacks that targeted the Kingdom and a number of brotherly”.Gulf countries will convene Sunday evening to discuss a unified response to Iran’s attacks, two Gulf diplomats told AFP, though the meeting will be online “due to the airport closures”. – Sinking oil tanker -Iranian state television said Sunday that an oil tanker was sinking after it was struck while attempting to “illegally” pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have threatened to close. The closure of the strait, through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of all liquified natural gas passes, could cause the price of crude to spike on the world markets. As the news of the sinking broke, eight OPEC+ states announced a greater-than-expected increase of 206,000 barrels a day to the cartel’s oil production quotas. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia did not explicitly mention the outbreak of the Iran conflict but cited “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as reasons for the increase.- ‘Shelter in place’ -The UK Foreign Office on Sunday urged British citizens in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE to “shelter in place”.The Foreign Office “now advises against all but essential travel to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE,” it said on X in its latest update. Britain’s defence secretary John Healey meanwhile said Iran’s “indiscriminate retaliatory attacks” included “two ballistic missiles fired in the direction of Cyprus”, although they were likely not targeting the Mediterranean island. – Israel hits Tehran -The Israeli army announced Sunday it was again launching “large-scale” strikes targeting the “heart of Tehran”. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz also hailed Khamenei’s killing as a “turning point in the war”.”He led the campaign of destruction against the State of Israel, he built the entire axis of evil around us, and within Iran itself he pursued an uncompromising line against the State of Israel,” Katz said during a security assessment along with top military and security officials, according to a statement by his office.- Ayatollah tapped for council -Ayatollah Alireza Arafi was named to an interim leadership council, which includes the president and head of the judiciary, to be at the helm of the country until a new permanent leader is selected. – Iran retaliates -Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said the killing of Khamenei was a “declaration of war against Muslims” on Sunday, vowing vengeance. Iranian security chief Ali Larijani then promised to hit the US and Israel with a force never seen before.Earlier, Iran’s army said it targeted on Sunday US bases in Iraq’s Kurdistan region and in the Gulf in response to the attack launched by the US and Israel.Air raid sirens sounded and explosions were heard over Jerusalem on Sunday after the Israeli military said it had detected missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. AFP correspondents heard blasts in Dubai, east of the Saudi capital Riyadh, across Bahrain’s capital Manama and Qatar, where thick black smoke was also seen rising on the horizon south of Doha. A top Emirati official warned Iran on Sunday that “your war is not with your neighbours” and that retaliation against Gulf states was a “miscalculation”.- US intercepts drones in Iraq – US defence systems intercepted at least two drones on Sunday over the city of Erbil in northern Iraq, as sirens sounded from the American consulate, an AFP journalist reported.US officials also warned citizens in Bahrain to avoid hotels in the capital Manama while staff at the US embassy to Jordan were told to avoid the embassy compound, citing risks of attacks. – Deadly protests erupt -Crowds gathered on Sunday in Iran’s south to call for vengeance following the killing of Khamenei in US and Israeli attacks, Iranian media reported. Similar gatherings took place elsewhere in Iran including in Tehran and the central city of Yazd. Hundreds of protesters in Iraq, which officially declared three days of mourning for Khamenei, also tried to storm the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, where the US embassy is located.In Pakistan, nine people were killed as hundreds of protesters tried to storm the US consulate in the megacity of Karachi, the local rescue service said.Several thousand Shia Muslims joined demonstrations in Indian-administered Kashmir, many chanting anti-Israel and anti-US slogans.- Evacuations -Thailand is readying to evacuate its citizens from the Middle East by military or charter flights, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said Sunday.- More deaths announced -Iran’s police intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezaian was killed during US and Israeli strikes on the Islamic republic, Iranian media reported Sunday.Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi was killed along with other senior generals in US and Israeli strikes on the country, state TV reported on Sunday.State TV listed the name of Mousavi along with defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and others.- Iran leader killed -Iranian state television reported Khamenei’s death in the early hours of Sunday, broadcasting archive images with a black banner.Iranian media also reported the deaths of his daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter.”Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead,” Trump had said hours earlier on his Truth Social platform.”Heavy and pinpoint bombing… will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump wrote.- Guards chief killed -Iran’s judiciary confirmed Sunday that the chief of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Pakpour, and another top security adviser, Ali Shamkhani, were also “martyred” in the strikes.- UN nuclear agency to meet -The United Nations’ nuclear agency will hold an extraordinary meeting on Iran on Monday.In a statement late on Saturday, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the meeting was at the request of Russia, a key ally of Tehran. burs-st-giv-sbk/giv

Afghanistan said on Sunday that the war in neighbouring Iran would negatively impact the whole region and expressed “deep regret” over the violence flaring in multiple countries.The Iranian flag was lowered to half-mast at the country’s embassy in Kabul, an AFP journalist said, and a black cloth hung over the entrance following the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli attack.”The recent political and security developments in the region have created unprecedented tensions that will have long-term negative effects on the entire region,” foreign ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi wrote on X.”The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan expresses its deep regret over the attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, and expanded by Iran to target the Gulf countries,” he added.Balkhi condemned “the killing of innocent civilians” and called for diplomacy “preventing further escalation of the conflict”.Iran shares a more than 900-kilometre (560-mile) border with Afghanistan and the countries have considerable economic ties.At the Islam Qala border crossing on Sunday, an AFP journalist said it remained open and a black flag had replaced the Iranian standard.strs-qb/rsc/mjw

Iran launched strikes across the Gulf on Sunday after vowing to avenge slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defying a threat from President Donald Trump to strike with unprecedented force.As crowds gathered in Tehran, with some grieving and others celebrating, explosions rang out and the Israeli military announced it was again striking targets in the heart of the capital.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced a fresh “large-scale” attack on Sunday, and blasts were heard in Riyadh, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Manama, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, with Israeli rescue services reporting four people killed in the latest missile attack.Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Khamenei’s killing a “declaration of war against Muslims” and warned: “Iran considers it its legitimate duty and right to avenge the perpetrators and masterminds of this historic crime.”Israel described Khamenei’s death as a “first step”, and military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani boasted that the joint operation “eliminated 40 senior commanders, including Khamenei, in one minute in two different locations over a thousand miles from Israel in broad daylight”.  In a social media post that adopted Trump’s style and rhetoric, Ali Larijani, the powerful head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, declared: “Today we will hit them with a force that they have never experienced before.”International reactions to conflict have been mixed, with Pope Leo XIV urging both sides to end “the spiral of violence”, while China condemned Khamenei’s killing as a “serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty”.France, on the other hand, expressed satisfaction at the death of “a bloodthirsty dictator who oppressed his people, degraded women, young people and minorities”. – Unprecedented force threat -Blasts were heard in northern Tehran and smoke was seen emanating from a building, an AFP journalist reported. It was not immediately clear what the target was.Earlier, cheers had been heard as some Iranians celebrated reports of the death of their longtime leader, but after state media confirmed his killing, pro-government demonstrations also formed, chanting “Death to America!”As crowds demanded revenge — and Iran’s army announced strikes targeting US bases in the Gulf and Iraqi Kurdistan — Trump threatened to unleash “force that has never been seen before” and urged Iran’s people to rise up and seize power.Iran’s first retaliatory strikes on Saturday had hit all the Gulf states apart from Oman, which had sought to mediate US-Iran talks. But on Sunday the country’s commercial port of Duqm was hit by two drones, injuring a foreign worker, the Oman News Agency said.Outrage at Saturday’s wave of US and Israeli strikes against Iran spilled over into neighbouring Iraq and Pakistan, where crowds attempted to storm US diplomatic missions.In the Pakistani megacity of Karachi, at least nine people were killed by gunshot wounds during pro-Iran protests at the US consulate, according to a hospital record seen by AFP.Britain urged UK citizens in the Gulf region to “shelter in place”, and the US mission in Jordan urged citizens to stay away from the embassy, and in Bahrain told them to avoid hotels after one was damaged in a strike.  In Iran, the Red Crescent said strikes had left 201 people dead and injured hundreds more.Iran’s judiciary confirmed that Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Khamenei, and General Mohammad Pakpour, the head of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, were among those killed.Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East killed at least two people in Abu Dhabi and another in Tel Aviv Saturday.- Question on succession -Iran had already seen intense speculation on a successor to Khamenei, given his age of 86. Upon his death, many observers expected greater power for the Revolutionary Guards, which are deeply entrenched in the Iranian economy.On Sunday, Iran named Ayatollah Alireza Arafi to join Pezeshkian on an interim leadership council to lead the country while a permanent successor is found for the supreme leader.Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late pro-Western shah deposed in the 1979 Islamic revolution, said any successor within the system would be illegitimate.Hailing the demise of Khamenei, Pahlavi said: “With his death, the Islamic Republic has effectively come to an end and will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history.”Pahlavi, who has spent most of his life in exile near Washington, has presented himself as a transitional figure to a secular democracy, but he does not enjoy support from across the opposition. burs-dc/smw/ser