China’s exports surged to a record high in 2024, providing a much-needed boost for the economy as the prospect of biting tariffs imposed by US president-elect Donald Trump looms.Overseas shipments represented a rare bright spot for Beijing last year as sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged crisis in the property sector dragged on growth.But Trump, who imposed sweeping tariffs on China during his first term in office, has threatened even heftier levies when he returns to the White House next week.Observers said that a recent surge in China’s exports has likely been boosted by companies ramping up stockpiles ahead of Trump’s second term amid fears of a painful trade war.”In 2024, China’s total exports exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 25.45 trillion yuan ($3.47 trillion), an increase of 7.1 percent year-on-year,” Lu Daliang, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said at a news conference.Total imports, meanwhile, rose 2.3 percent to 18.39 trillion yuan, Lu said.Combined trade swelled five percent to reach a record 43.85 trillion yuan, said Wang Lingjun, vice minister of the customs administration.”China’s position as the world’s largest goods trading nation has become even more secure,” Wang added.Official customs data showed Monday that exports in December jumped 10.7 percent year-on-year, comfortably outperforming a forecast of 7.5 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.”We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile Chinese goods ahead of tariff hikes,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.”But exports are likely to weaken later this year as President Trump puts his tariff threats into action,” she added.Imports last month grew one percent year-on-year, customs data showed, compared with a Bloomberg forecast of a one percent decline.- ‘Resilient’ -Exports have historically represented a key driver of activity for the world’s number two economy, which officials say is likely to have grown five percent last year.During the most recent US presidential campaign, Trump threatened to slap a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese goods.China’s exports “are likely to stay resilient in the near-term”, wrote Huang.”But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through,” she wrote, adding that the new US tariffs “could reduce export volumes by about three percent and shave roughly 0.5 percent off China’s GDP.”Since September, Beijing has announced some of its most aggressive policy measures in years as officials try to kickstart the economy, which has so far failed to achieve a full post-pandemic recovery.The steps have included the cancellation of certain restrictions on homebuying, subsidies for the purchasing of household items and key interest rate cuts.Exports have historically represented a key driver of activity for the world’s number two economy, which officials say is likely to have grown five percent last year.”With the help of strong exports and macro policy easing, the economic momentum likely stabilised,” wrote Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note Monday following the publication of the trade figures.The government is due to release 2024 economic growth data later this week. President Xi Jinping has recently expressed confidence that the country achieved an official target of around five percent.Many economists say more policy support targeted at incentivising domestic consumption is needed to restore China’s economic health.The country narrowly avoided a slip into deflation in December, official figures showed last week, suggesting that recent measures have not yet produced a robust rebound in domestic spending.Low inflation may lead to an increase of real interest rates, said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “So monetary easing policy needs to be more proactive to really reduce the borrowing cost of enterprises, which is important for a broad recovery of the economy,” she told AFP.The International Monetary Fund has previously predicted China’s economy would grow 4.8 percent in 2024 before slowing to 4.5 percent this year.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told US President Joe Biden that his blocking of Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel raised “strong” concerns in both countries, local media reported Monday.The comments came in a three-way call with the president of the Philippines that according to the White House also touched on China’s “dangerous and unlawful” behaviour in the region.Citing national security concerns, Biden nixed Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel earlier this month, irking close ally Japan where the United States has some 54,000 military personnel.”I said that strong voices of concerns are being raised not just in Japan but also in the US business community, and I urged (Biden) to dispel these feelings,” Ishiba told reporters after the call on Monday.Blocking a takeover by a Japanese firm is highly unusual and both firms have launched legal action, accusing the outgoing US president of “illegal interference”.Nippon Steel had touted the acquisition as a lifeline for its struggling US rival, but opponents warned the Japanese group would slash jobs despite its assurances to the contrary.The takeover, which was announced in 2023, came in the run-up to last year’s US presidential election and proved a political flashpoint.US Steel is based in the swing state of Pennsylvania and both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris opposed the transaction.- ‘Big picture’ -Japanese firms invested almost $800 billion in the United States in 2023, more than any other country, and 14.3 percent of the total, according to official US data.US firms are also the biggest outside investors in Japan.Japan is also a close strategic ally for Washington as it seeks to counter China asserting its presence in contested areas of the South China Sea.Both steel companies said Sunday that US authorities have extended the deadline for unwinding the acquisition until June 18.Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who will attend Trump’s inauguration as US president on January 20, said it was important not to undermine the “big picture” of bilateral ties.Iwaya also said that while in Washington he would seek talks with Marco Rubio, slated to be Trump’s Secretary of State, and to lay the groundwork for a meeting between Ishiba and Trump.Kyodo News cited government sources as saying that this could take place before mid-February.During Trump’s first term, he and Japan’s then-prime minister Shinzo Abe, enjoyed warm relations. In December, Trump met Abe’s widow at Mar-a-Lago.- US allies -In recent years, with an eye on China, Washington has sought to improve strategic relations with both Japan and the Philippines as well as with South Korea. Biden, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos and with Ishiba’s predecessor Fumio Kishida held talks at the White House last April.In another first, in 2023 Biden hosted Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol — who briefly imposed martial law last month — at Camp David.Last year the Philippines ratified a key defence pact with Japan, which allows them to deploy troops on each other’s soil. On Monday Biden, Marcos and Ishiba “discussed trilateral maritime security and economic cooperation, as well as the People’s Republic of China’s dangerous and unlawful behaviour in the South China Sea,” the White House said.”The three Leaders agreed on the importance of continued coordination to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific,” said a statement, which made no mention of the steel deal.Marcos’s office said that the call was to “reaffirm their commitment to strengthening cooperation in areas such as economic growth, emerging technologies, climate action, clean energy and regional security”.Biden also “highlighted the ‘historic progress’ made, particularly in maritime security, economic security and technological collaboration” between the three countries, the Philippines statement said.