Unfounded online rumours warning that a huge earthquake will soon strike Japan are taking a toll on travel firms and airlines who report less demand from worried Hong Kongers.People from Hong Kong made nearly 2.7 million trips to Japan in 2024.Although it is impossible to know exactly when earthquakes will hit, fear-inducing predictions have spread widely among the city’s residents.Some of the false posts cite a Japanese manga comic, republished in 2021, which predicts a major natural disaster in July 2025 — based on the author’s dream.Other posts give different dates, while a Facebook group that claims to predict disasters in Japan has over a quarter of a million members, mainly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.”The earthquake prophecy has absolutely caused a big change to our customers’ preferences,” said Frankie Chow, head of Hong Kong travel agency CLS Holiday.Chow told AFP that in March and April his company received 70-80 percent fewer inquiries about travelling to Japan than last year.”I’ve never experienced this before,” said Chow, who also runs the booking website Flyagain.la.While some people changed their destination, others “did not dare to travel”, he said.Mild to moderate earthquakes are common in Japan, where strict building codes minimise damage, even from larger shakes.But the nation is no stranger to major disasters, including in 2011 when a magnitude-9.0 quake triggered a tsunami that left 18,500 people dead or missing and caused a devastating meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant.Earthquakes are very rarely felt in Hong Kong, but some people are easily spooked by disinformation, Chow said.- ‘Megaquake’ warning -Last month, Tokyo’s Cabinet Office said on social media platform X: “Predicting earthquakes by date, time and place is not possible based on current scientific knowledge.”A Cabinet Office official told AFP that the X post was part of its usual information-sharing about earthquakes.But Japan’s Asahi Shimbun daily reported that it was responding to prophecies that sprung up online after a Japanese government panel in January released a new estimate for the probability of a “megaquake”.The panel said the chance of a massive earthquake along the undersea Nankai Trough south of Japan in the next three decades had marginally increased to 75-82 percent.This was followed by a new damage estimate in March from the Cabinet Office, which said a Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami could cause 298,000 deaths in Japan.Despite being a routine update of a previous 2014 figure, the estimate appears to have fanned tourists’ fears.A YouTube video featuring a feng shui master urging viewers not to visit Japan, published by local media outlet HK01, has been viewed more than 100,000 times.Don Hon, one of Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents, does not entirely believe the online claims, but has still been influenced by them.”I will just take it as a precaution, and won’t make any particular plans to travel to Japan,” the 32-year-old social worker said.And if a friend were to ask him to visit Japan in July, Hon “might suggest going somewhere else”.- ‘No reason to worry’ -Hong Kong-based Greater Bay Airlines has reduced flights to Japan’s southern Tokushima region, a local tourism official told AFP.”The company told us demand has rapidly decreased amid rumours there will be a big quake and tsunami in Japan this summer,” she said.”Three scheduled weekly round-trip flights will be reduced to two round-trips per week from May 12 to October 25.”The airline is also reducing its flights to Sendai in the northern region of Miyagi.”There’s no reason to worry,” Miyagi’s governor Yoshihiro Murai reassured travellers, adding that Japanese people are not fleeing.But “if unscientific rumours on social media are impacting tourism, that would be a major problem”, he said last month.According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, the number of Hong Kong visitors in March stood at 208,400 — down nearly 10 percent year-on-year.However, this decline was partly due to the Easter holidays starting in mid-April this year, instead of March, they said.Hong Kong-based EGL Tours has not seen a massive decline in customers travelling to Japan, its executive director Steve Huen Kwok-chuen said.But recent bookings at its two hotels in Japan show fewer from Hong Kong guests, while the number from other global destinations remains stable.In any case, in the likely event that the predictions do not come to pass, “people will realise it’s not true”, he said.burs-nf/kaf/tc/sco

Taiwan will turn off its last nuclear reactor on Saturday, fuelling concerns over the self-ruled island’s reliance on imported energy and vulnerability to a Chinese blockade.The island, which targets net-zero emissions by 2050, depends almost entirely on imported fossil fuel to power its homes, factories and critical semiconductor chip industry.President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party has long vowed to phase out nuclear power, while the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party says continued supply is needed for energy security.Ma’anshan Nuclear Power Plant in southern Pingtung county is being closed as China intensifies military activity around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory and has vowed to bring under its control one day. During large-scale military drills around Taiwan in April, China simulated strikes on key ports and energy sites as well as blockading the island.Ma’anshan has operated for 40 years in a region popular with tourists and which is now dotted with wind turbines and solar panels.More renewable energy is planned at the site, where state-owned Taipower plans to build a solar power station capable of supplying an estimated 15,000 households annually.But while nuclear only accounted for 4.2 percent of Taiwan’s power supply last year, some fear Ma’anshan’s closure risks an energy crunch.”Taiwan is such a small place and currently there’s no other better and more efficient natural energy source that can replace nuclear power,” said Ricky Hsiao, 41, who runs a nearby guesthouse.”The reality is that TSMC and other big companies need a lot of electricity. They would leave Taiwan if it’s not stable,” he told AFP, referring to chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.But mother-of-two Carey Chen fears an accident like the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown in Japan, which like Taiwan is prone to earthquakes.”If we can find other stable power sources, I support a nuclear-free homeland for everyone’s safety,” Chen, 40, told AFP.- Stable supply – At its peak in the 1980s, nuclear power made up more than 50 percent of Taiwan’s energy generation, with three plants operating six reactors across the island. Concerns after the Fukushima disaster sawa new plant mothballed in 2014 before it was even finished.And two plants stopped operating between 2018 and 2023 after their operating permits expired.Most of Taiwan’s power is fossil fuel-based, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounting for 42.4 percent and coal 39.3 percent last year.Renewable energy made up 11.6 percent, well short of the government’s target of 20 percent by 2025.Solar has faced opposition from communities worried about panels occupying valuable land, while rules requiring locally made parts in wind turbines have slowed their deployment.Lai insists Taiwan’s energy supply will be stable even as AI technology boosts demand, with new units in existing LNG and coal-fired plants replacing Ma’anshan’s output.The KMT and Taiwan People’s Party, which control the parliament, amended a law on Tuesday enabling nuclear plants to extend their operating life by up to 20 years.”Nuclear power is not the most perfect way to generate electricity,” KMT lawmaker Ko Ju-chun told AFP.”But it is an option that should not be eliminated when we are developing technology, defence, and strengthening national security.”- Chinese threat -Taiwan’s reliance on imported fossil fuels is of particular concern given the risk of a Chinese blockade.The island has enough LNG and coal reserves to last just 11 and 30 days, respectively, government data show.Taiwan’s centralised electricity grid also leaves swaths of the island at risk of major power outages in case of a single fault. Without nuclear, “our energy security cannot be guaranteed, and national security will be affected”, said Yeh Tsung-kuang, an energy expert at Taiwan’s National Tsing Hua University.Environmental activists argue renewables are the best way to bolster Taiwan’s energy resilience.”If every community has solar panels on its roofs, the community can be (more) self-sufficient”, said Tsui Shu-hsin, secretary-general of Green Citizens’ Action Alliance.But others note Taiwan’s break-up with nuclear is at odds with global and regional trends.Even Japan aims for nuclear to account for 20-22 percent of its electricity by 2030, up from well under 10 percent now.And nuclear power became South Korea’s largest source of electricity in 2024, accounting for 31.7 percent of the country’s total power generation, and reaching its highest level in 18 years, according to government data.Yu Shih-ching, chief of Hengchun town where Ma’anshan is located, said the plant had brought jobs and boosted the local economy.”Our view is that nuclear power is necessary,” he told AFP, calling it “an important driving force for the national economy” and a “great help to local areas”.And Lai acknowledged recently he would not rule out a return to nuclear one day.”Whether or not we will use nuclear power in the future depends on three foundations which include nuclear safety, a solution to nuclear waste, and successful social dialogue,” he said.

Equities stuttered Thursday as investors await fresh developments in trade talks, with US partners looking to reach deals to avoid Donald Trump’s tariff blitz, while oil extended losses on hopes for an Iran nuclear deal.With excitement from the China-US detente running out of legs, the search is on for fresh catalysts to drive a rally that has pushed markets back above the levels seen before US President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” bombshell.News that Beijing was suspending some non-tariff countermeasures on US entities for 90 days following the superpowers’ weekend truce did little to inject much more enthusiasm.With the tariffs crisis calmed for now, dealers can turn their attention to hard economic data, hoping for an idea about the initial impact of Washington’s trade policies.After figures Tuesday showing US inflation came in a little below forecasts in April, eyes are on wholesale prices and retail sales due later Thursday, as well as earnings from retail giant Walmart.However, analysts pointed out that the real impact would not be seen until May’s figures are released and warned that there were still plenty of bumps in the road ahead.”The trade truce may hold for now, but the tariffs announced — many still around 30 percent — are not disappearing,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.”These are ‘sticky’ policies that can reshape supply chains, corporate margins, and even inflation. In fact, the market is now preparing for a second shock: weaker economic and earnings data in the third quarter as tariffs bite.”She added that “the muted market reaction the day after the truce suggests investors may be digesting the idea that ‘the best news may already be out'”.While Wall Street enjoyed a broadly positive day, with the S&P and Nasdaq up but the Dow down, Asia largely reversed.Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Manila were all down.Oil prices sank around two percent on signs that Iran could agree to certain US demands to reach a nuclear deal.An adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that Tehran could accept far-reaching curbs on its atomic programme in exchange for sanctions relief, according to NBC News.Ali Shamkhani said in an interview that his country could agree to never develop nuclear weapons, give up stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and allow inspectors to nuclear sites — among other steps — if economic sanctions were lifted, NBC said.The commodity had already dropped Wednesday on bets that demand would increase as tensions between China and the United States ease and the tariffs are wound back.- Key figures at around 0200 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 37,670.38Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.5 percent at 23,518.02Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,397.09Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1198 from $1.1178 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.3281 from $1.3268Dollar/yen: DOWN at 146.19 yen from 146.65 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.31 pence from 84.21 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 2.0 percent at $61.88 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.9 percent at $64.89 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 42,051.06 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 8,585.01 (close)