China’s top lawmakers gathered Monday to hash out a major stimulus package that analysts say could grow even bigger if former US president Donald Trump wins the White House this week.Beijing has in recent months heeded calls to step up support for the economy after years of inaction, announcing a raft of measures including rate cuts and the easing of some home buying restrictions.But they have refrained from unveiling a figure for the long-awaited stimulus, disappointing investors after a market rally fizzled when officials repeatedly failed to commit to a top line.Analysts now hope this number could emerge from this week’s meeting of the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress, the top body of China’s rubber stamp parliament headed by number three official Zhao Leji.Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around one trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra funds.The measures are expected to be announced when the meeting wraps up on Friday — in time for Beijing to take stock of results of presidential elections in the United States.Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.And Nomura economists expect Beijing to adjust the size of its stimulus depending on the outcome.”We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, in a research note.”In our view, the size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 percent bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a (Kamala) Harris win,” Lu wrote.The standing committee reviews and approves all legislation, including allocating funds out of China’s budget.”We are expecting more details on (stimulus) proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics.The session kicked off on Monday with discussion of laws on arbitration and science and technology, state news agency Xinhua said.Analysts also expect Beijing to approve a separate, one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.But Natixis economist Alicia Garcia Herrero cautioned that “a lot of money will go to cover losses”.”It’s not really a growth push,” she said.Yeap Jun Rong, an analyst at trading platform IG, agreed.”The measures appear to focus more on preventing further economic decline, rather than catalysing a stronger growth recovery,” he wrote.- ‘Major challenges’ -China is battling sluggish domestic consumption, a persistent crisis in the property sector and soaring government debt — all of which threaten Beijing’s official growth target of five percent for this year.”The major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” Nomura’s Lu said.The property sector was long a key driver of growth, but is now mired in a sea of debt.Average prices of new residential property ticked up slightly last month, according to a survey of 100 cities by independent researcher China Index Academy.But China’s cities and provinces are still on the hook for a trove of unfinished and unsold housing units, and repurchasing them could cost Beijing up to 3.3 trillion yuan, according to Natixis estimates.Prolonged housing woes continue to lead to weak consumer consumption, according to Lim of Moody’s Analytics.”The average Chinese consumer with existing mortgages does not feel their wealth is increasing,” he said.The issue of how local governments manage debt is also set to come under scrutiny at the NPC meeting this week.Authorities at and above the county level will be required to report their debt situation to the NPC each year, Huang Haihua, spokesman for the NPC standing committee’s legislative affairs commission, said at a briefing Friday.But China’s economic woes run deeper than local mismanagement and empty homes.”The overall economy is losing productivity out of basically misallocated savings,” said Garcia Herrero, referring to issues within China’s industrial policy spending, including extensive subsidies.”They need to really change all of that,” she said.

Asian markets rose Monday as investors steel themselves for a too-close-to-call US presidential election, while Chinese leaders meet to hammer out a stimulus package that experts say could be determined by the vote.The gains came after a positive lead from Wall Street and data showing far fewer US jobs were created last month than expected, boosting hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut when it gathers this week.With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump neck and neck ahead of Tuesday’s poll, traders are keeping a close eye on any hint of an advantage either way.The dollar slipped Monday as a fresh opinion poll in Iowa — which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 — showed Harris leading. A victory for Trump is seen as being positive for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields owing to his pledges to cut taxes and impose hefty tariffs on imports.Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives are also being closely watched amid speculation the Republicans could take control of both.”It’s not just about who wins the presidency but also the composition of the House and Senate,” said Peter Esho, founder of Esho Capital.”If the Republicans sweep all three, that will open the door to significant fiscal changes, which is negative for bondholders and could spell higher yields until the dust settles.”The election comes days before the Fed is due to make its latest policy decision, with investors expecting 25-basis-point reduction after a bumper 50-point cut at its last gathering.The vote is of particular interest to China, where Beijing is this week meeting to hammer out an economic stimulus.The concrete measures are expected to be announced Friday, allowing time for officials to digest the result and make allowances for either.”We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s Chief China Economist, in a research note.Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.”We are expecting more details on the proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics, including “how this extra funding would be allocated to address the near-term economic issues”.Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around a trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget — mostly for indebted local governments.Observers also expect Beijing to approve a one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.Markets rose across Asia, with Hong Kong and Shanghai among the best performers, while Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington and Jakarta were also well up.Oil prices rose more than one percent after eight members of the OPEC+ group of producers said Sunday they would extend supply cuts until the end of next month.They had been delaying output hikes on worries about slowing demand in China and the United States.The commodity was also being supported by geopolitical tensions after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned at the weekend that Israel and the United States “will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response” to Israeli attacks on October 26.That strike was in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles against its rival.- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 20,546.35 Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,282.42Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.0888 from $1.0833 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2975 from $1.2917Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.79 yen from 153.01 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.92 from 83.86 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.5 percent at $70.50 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.4 percent at $74.09 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,052.19 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.8 percent at 8,177.15 (close)