Top energy industry figures converge on Houston this week for their biggest gathering since Donald Trump returned to the White House to champion fossil fuels and undo Joe Biden’s climate legacy.The president himself won’t appear at the annual Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) conference, but Trump appointees are expected to talk up the Republican’s petroleum-led program as embodied by the slogan: “Drill Baby Drill.”Since returning to Washington less than two months ago, Trump and his team have laid siege to the existing economic order at a dizzying pace, launching trade wars against allies and neutering government agencies the president and his libertarian allies dislike.Trump made energy central to his agenda with his day-one “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, vowing during his inaugural address to “end the Green New Deal” in favor of “that liquid gold under our feet.”Trump’s January 20 executive order represents a potentially wide-ranging attack on tax incentives embraced by energy companies to advance billions of dollars of energy transition projects connected to laws enacted during Biden’s presidency to mitigate climate change.Some pundits think Trump will stop short of actions canceling existing projects, where workers have been hired, including many in Republican regions.But the abrupt shift to Trump from the climate-focused Biden likely “turns 2025 into a paralyzed year where folks are hesitant to push on any kind of decarbonization,” said Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston advisory and investment firm.- More drilling? -The schedule for the five-day Houston CERA gathering lists three top Trump appointees, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who will open the proceedings on Monday morning.Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Environmental Protection Agency head Lee Zeldin are slated to speak later in the week.Wright, an energy industry entrepreneur and executive, and Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota, appeared together last week to tout an announcement by Venture Global of an $18 billion expansion of a liquefied natural gas export facility in Louisiana.The event highlighted Trump’s reversal of a Biden freeze on permitting new LNG export capacity.Trump has ridiculed the environmental concerns at the center of Biden’s policy, championing LNG exports as a way to strengthen America’s ties with energy importing countries, as well as a way to boost the US exploration and production industry.But there has been widespread skepticism about Trump’s message urging the industry to significantly boost oil and gas drilling in order to lift output and lower energy prices. Wall Street has signaled a clear preference for robust industry profits that can continue to allow for dividends and share repurchases.Besides the Trump officials, other speakers include CEOs from Chevron, Shell, Saudi Aramco and other oil giants; senior government officials from energy importers like India and exporters like Libya; top power and tech industry executives.There are panels on low-carbon technologies, the electricity supply challenge to support artificial intelligence research, OPEC’s influence in setting oil prices and the shifting geopolitics around energy and international trade.- Questions for Europe -European officials are to appear on panels focused on Europe at a crossroads after shifting from Russian supplies  and the role of energy in the future of the continent’s security.In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US LNG “played a super-important role” for Europe as the continent sought to lessen its dependence on Russian gas, said Jonathan Elkind, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.But European leaders have been forced to reckon with the current state of the transatlantic alliance in light of Trump’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin and tensions with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.Whether a Russia-Ukraine peace deal might lead to a restoration of some Russian natural gas exports to Europe remains an open question.In the short run, including at CERA, Elkind expects European officials to continue to speak optimistically of the prospects for more US LNG.But “at the back of their mind… it’s pretty hard to tell whether Donald Trump is friend or foe and that’s a shocking thing to say after 70 years of a close alliance,” Elkind said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio set off on Sunday to fly to Saudi Arabia for talks with Ukraine, as President Donald Trump decides whether to relent on a freeze in military and intelligence support.Rubio will then travel on to Group of Seven (G7) talks in Canada, making him the first major US official to visit since Trump returned to office, launched a trade war the neighboring country and mocked its sovereignty.In three days of talks in Jeddah, Rubio will discuss how to “advance the president’s goal to end the Russia-Ukraine war,” said State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.She avoided characterizing the crisis as a “Russian invasion of Ukraine” as the previous administration and US allies have done.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously announced that he will be in Jeddah for the talks, as has Trump confidant and envoy Steve Witkoff. Rubio left Miami’s Homestead Air Base at around 08:00 pm local time (midnight GMT).Trump, asked separately on his own plane about the hopes for a quick resolution, told reporters Sunday: “I think we’re going to have a good result in Saudi Arabia… we have a lot of good people going out there.”And I think Ukraine’s going to do well, and I think Russia is going to do well. I think some very big things could happen this week. I hope so.”Trump suspended aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a disastrous February 28 meeting with Zelensky at the White House.The Republican leader and his vice president, JD Vance, publicly dressed Zelensky down for alleged ingratitude over billions of dollars worth of previous US weapons shipments.Zelensky left without signing an agreement demanded by Trump in which Ukraine would hand over much of its mineral wealth to the United States, which Trump argues will compensate US taxpayers for the assistance provided under former president Joe Biden.Zelensky has since said he is ready to sign the minerals deal and has sent a conciliatory letter to Trump, who read it at his address to Congress on Tuesday.- Frozen aid -Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy on Russia and Ukraine, said Thursday he would support resuming assistance once Zelensky signs the deal — but that the decision was ultimately up to Trump.NBC News, quoting unnamed sources, said Trump was unlikely to relent just with the minerals deal and would want to be assured that Zelensky is ready to make concessions to Russia.Trump told reporters Sunday he did not think Ukraine had yet shown they “want peace.””Right now they haven’t shown it to the extent that they should… but I think they will be, and I think it’s going to become evident over the next two or three days.”Stunned European leaders have been racing to find ways to make up for US aid, although Zelensky himself has said that there is no substitute for Washington’s security guarantees in a deal with Russia.Russia, which invaded three years ago, has not let up in striking Ukraine, including its energy infrastructure. Trump on Friday also threatened to tighten sanctions on Russia if it does not come to the table.Rubio last month met his Russian counterpart, breaking a Biden-era freeze on such high-level contacts, and spoke of future economic cooperation if the war ends.Those talks also took place in Saudi Arabia, which has positioned itself as a key diplomatic partner for Trump.Rubio will also meet in Jeddah with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, the State Department said.Trump is expected to push hard for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, a prospect that seems remote until a permanent end to the Gaza war — a priority for Witkoff as he travels the region. Rubio will then head to Quebec for a meeting of the Group of Seven foreign ministers where his spokeswoman said he will work to “further US interests in peace and security, strategic cooperation, and global stability.”She made no mention of tensions with Canada, which Trump has mocked as the “51st state” as he unleashes tariffs, although he has partially backed off faced with a slide on stock markets.

President Donald Trump declined Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.”I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.”There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding, “It takes a little time.”Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.”Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring. Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers — already battered by years of inflation — brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.And widespread government layoffs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.When asked later Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there could be a recession, Trump told reports on Air Force One “Who knows?”Overall, the signs are mixed.A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump’s shifting tariff policy — effective dates have changed, as have the sectors being targeted — as businesses and investors try to puzzle out what will come next.Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, was asked on ABC whether tariffs were primarily temporary or might become permanent.Hassett said that depended on the behavior of the countries targeted. If they failed to respond positively, he said, the result could be a “new equilibrium” of continuing tariffs.The administration has insisted that while the economy will pass through a possibly bumpy “transition,” things are headed in a positive direction.In his State of the Union message on Tuesday, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take hold, while adding: “We’re okay with that. It won’t be much.” And his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of a “detox period” as the economy cuts government spending.Given the uncertainties, economists have been wary of making firm predictions. Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 percent to 20 percent.And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth. The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs.