Israeli attack exposed Iran’s military vulnerabilities: analysts

Israel’s unprecedented strikes on its archfoe Iran Friday are a resounding blow for Tehran that has thrown into doubt its ability to respond militarily, analysts said.Israel said it hit 100 targets including Iranian nuclear and military sites in the attack. The airstrikes killed senior figures, among them leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, the armed forces’ chief and top nuclear scientists.Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel of a “bitter and painful” fate over the attacks. But analysts say the Islamic republic’s options are limited, after Israel showed itself capable of precisely locating and taking out high-ranking Iranian officials.”This is an intelligence defeat of existential proportions for the Islamic Republic,” said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank.”It exposes the vital vulnerability of the regime’s military and security apparatus and its key infrastructures — including nuclear — as well as its top political and military leadership,” he told AFP.”All this is meant, inter alia, to cripple Tehran’s command and counter-strike capacities.”The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon.Tehran denies that, but has gradually broken away from its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, after the United States pulled out of it.The landmark accord provided Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic programme, but it fell apart after President Donald Trump halted US participation in 2018, during his first term.- Tehran ‘in a bind’ -Western nations in recent days accused Tehran of deliberately escalating its nuclear programme, despite several rounds of US-Iran talks for a new accord. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation said Thursday it would “significantly” increase production of enriched uranium, after the UN’s nuclear watchdog found Tehran in breach of its obligations.Israel has previously carried out attacks in the Islamic republic, including against military targets in October last year.But Friday’s attacks were unprecedented.”The Israel campaign is sweeping in scope and sophistication,” said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group.”We may still only be in the early stages of a prolonged operation that continues to expand, disrupting Iran’s ability to either formulate or execute a response.”Friday’s strikes killed Iran’s highest-ranking military officer, armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian media reported.A senior adviser to Khamenei was also wounded, state television said.Israel hit a key underground nuclear site in Natanz several times, it also said, reporting that most damage was at “surface level”.British intelligence firm Janes said, however, that hitting Natanz will “have almost certainly dealt a significant blow to Iran’s enrichment capabilities and facilities”.Clement Therme, of the Sorbonne University, said that “to retaliate, the regime seems to be in a bind”.”Either it targets US bases in the region and jeopardises its future, or it targets Israel, but we see that its military capabilities are limited,” he said.The Israeli military said Iran launched around 100 drones against it, but its air defences intercepted “most” of them outside Israeli territory.- Iran’s ‘cataclysmic’ economy -Israel, which relies on US diplomatic and military support, carried out the attack despite Trump’s public urging for it to give time for diplomacy.Trump’s Middle East pointman Steve Witkoff had been set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman.Iran wants a new deal that would ease the sanctions that have battered its economy.A Western diplomat earlier this year described Iran’s economy as “cataclysmic”, saying the country had “a gigantic need for the lifting of sanctions, reforms, a cleanup of the banking system, foreign investments”.Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the strikes were “designed to kill President Trump’s chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear programme”.”It is highly unlikely that in these conditions, Iran will proceed with the Omani-mediated talks scheduled for Sunday,” she added.But, after the strikes, a US official said Washington still hoped the Sunday talks would go ahead.Trump urged Iran to “make a deal, before there is nothing left”, warning of “even more brutal” attacks to come.Vaez said the strategy may not work.”Rather than prompt Iranian concessions it could also lead to a doubling down by Tehran,” he said.”Setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent.”jr-cf-dla-ah/as/rmb

Middle East crisis opens ‘major schism’ in Trump coalition

Establishment Republicans have backed Israel’s strikes on Iran, but the crisis is forcing President Donald Trump to walk a political tightrope between the hawks in his base and the isolationists who helped sweep him to power.Trump ran for reelection as a peacemaker who distained the foreign adventures of his predecessors, boasting that he would have little difficulty ending conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.Many Trump followers see Israel’s offensive as the sternest test yet of his “America First” credentials, fearing that he will allow the United States to get dragged into the hostilities.The announcement of strikes was applauded by Mark Levin, a rightwing political analyst and longstanding Trump loyalist, who crowed: “The Iranians are about to get their asses kicked.””They think this is Joe Biden’s administration, that they would get away…. Thank God we have Donald Trump as president of the United States,” he thundered on Fox News.Beyond the government buildings and TV studios of Washington, however, Trump’s Make America Great Again, or MAGA, activists oppose US boots on the ground abroad and warn against shows of support for Israel.- ‘Sticky one for Trump’ -“This is a sticky one for Trump, who has long pledged to end ‘forever wars’ and keep the US away from dangerous foreign entanglements,” Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, told AFP.”Trump’s America First base is divided. There’s a strong strain of isolationism there, and yet Israel and efforts to tamp down anti-Semitism pull Trump in the other direction.” Levin received blowback from Tucker Carlson, a leading voice on the American far right, who posted on X that his former Fox News colleague was “hyperventilating” to distract from the real goal — regime change in Iran.Secretary of State Marco Rubio, normally a foreign policy hawk, was quick to distance the United States from Israel’s “unilateral” strikes, which hit uranium-enrichment facilities and killed top Iranian military officials.Trump himself had repeatedly insisted that Iran could not be allowed to have nuclear weapons — but made clear before the strikes that he was against military action.He appeared to have changed tack by Friday, with ABC quoting the president describing the attack as “excellent.” That won’t sit well with many of his supporters.Saagar Enjeti, a populist right-wing anchor on the Breaking Points YouTube show, accused Trump of letting down the “America First” isolationists in his base.- ‘Disastrously split’ -“Trump has now praised Israel’s strike, affirmed US material support, and Israeli media is reporting his public opposition was a disinformation campaign to mislead Iran,” he said.”So in other words Trump, not Israel, has made a mockery of all of us wanted to avoid this war.”Charlie Kirk, a pro-Israel online MAGA star and one of Trump’s staunchest allies, went live on his podcast to find out how his pro-Trump audience was reacting to events.”The emails are so largely overwhelmingly against Israel doing this, I’d say it’s probably a 99 to one,” Kirk said.Kirk went on to ask how the “America First” foreign policy doctrine can “stay consistent with this,” before concluding: “This, right now, is going to cause, I think, a major schism in the MAGA online community.”Kirk asked his five million X followers if America should “get involved in Israel’s war against Iran” and almost 90 percent of the 300,000+ people who had responded by Friday morning said no.Fellow MAGA activist Jack Posobiec warned before the strikes that they would “disastrously split” Trump’s coalition. “Trump smartly ran against starting new wars, this is what the swing states voted for,” he said.”The midterms are not far and Congress’ majority is already razor-thin. America First!”

Middle East crisis opens ‘major schism’ in Trump coalition

Establishment Republicans have backed Israel’s strikes on Iran, but the crisis is forcing President Donald Trump to walk a political tightrope between the hawks in his base and the isolationists who helped sweep him to power.Trump ran for reelection as a peacemaker who distained the foreign adventures of his predecessors, boasting that he would have little difficulty ending conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.Many Trump followers see Israel’s offensive as the sternest test yet of his “America First” credentials, fearing that he will allow the United States to get dragged into the hostilities.The announcement of strikes was applauded by Mark Levin, a rightwing political analyst and longstanding Trump loyalist, who crowed: “The Iranians are about to get their asses kicked.””They think this is Joe Biden’s administration, that they would get away…. Thank God we have Donald Trump as president of the United States,” he thundered on Fox News.Beyond the government buildings and TV studios of Washington, however, Trump’s Make America Great Again, or MAGA, activists oppose US boots on the ground abroad and warn against shows of support for Israel.- ‘Sticky one for Trump’ -“This is a sticky one for Trump, who has long pledged to end ‘forever wars’ and keep the US away from dangerous foreign entanglements,” Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, told AFP.”Trump’s America First base is divided. There’s a strong strain of isolationism there, and yet Israel and efforts to tamp down anti-Semitism pull Trump in the other direction.” Levin received blowback from Tucker Carlson, a leading voice on the American far right, who posted on X that his former Fox News colleague was “hyperventilating” to distract from the real goal — regime change in Iran.Secretary of State Marco Rubio, normally a foreign policy hawk, was quick to distance the United States from Israel’s “unilateral” strikes, which hit uranium-enrichment facilities and killed top Iranian military officials.Trump himself had repeatedly insisted that Iran could not be allowed to have nuclear weapons — but made clear before the strikes that he was against military action.He appeared to have changed tack by Friday, with ABC quoting the president describing the attack as “excellent.” That won’t sit well with many of his supporters.Saagar Enjeti, a populist right-wing anchor on the Breaking Points YouTube show, accused Trump of letting down the “America First” isolationists in his base.- ‘Disastrously split’ -“Trump has now praised Israel’s strike, affirmed US material support, and Israeli media is reporting his public opposition was a disinformation campaign to mislead Iran,” he said.”So in other words Trump, not Israel, has made a mockery of all of us wanted to avoid this war.”Charlie Kirk, a pro-Israel online MAGA star and one of Trump’s staunchest allies, went live on his podcast to find out how his pro-Trump audience was reacting to events.”The emails are so largely overwhelmingly against Israel doing this, I’d say it’s probably a 99 to one,” Kirk said.Kirk went on to ask how the “America First” foreign policy doctrine can “stay consistent with this,” before concluding: “This, right now, is going to cause, I think, a major schism in the MAGA online community.”Kirk asked his five million X followers if America should “get involved in Israel’s war against Iran” and almost 90 percent of the 300,000+ people who had responded by Friday morning said no.Fellow MAGA activist Jack Posobiec warned before the strikes that they would “disastrously split” Trump’s coalition. “Trump smartly ran against starting new wars, this is what the swing states voted for,” he said.”The midterms are not far and Congress’ majority is already razor-thin. America First!”

Calme précaire à Los Angeles, avant les manifestations nationales du week-end

Un calme précaire règne vendredi à Los Angeles avant les manifestations prévues samedi dans l’ensemble du pays contre la politique de Donald Trump, en même temps que la grande parade militaire voulue par le président républicain pour les 250 ans de l’armée américaine. La nuit s’est déroulée sans incident dans la mégalopole où vit une importante population hispanique, théâtre ces jours derniers de manifestations contre l’interpellation musclée d’étrangers en situation irrégulière.”Pourquoi je suis ici? Pour les gens qui ont été arrêtés, ceux qui n’ont pas de voix”, a confié à l’AFP Jasmine, qui n’a pas donné son nom de famille.Samedi, des opposants à l’adminstration de Trump se réuniront dans tout le pays sous le slogan “No Kings” (“Pas de rois”). Des manifestations sont prévues dans une centaine de villes. Donald Trump s’est attribué jeudi le relatif retour au calme au déploiement à Los Angeles d’environ 4.000 réservistes des Gardes nationaux et 700 Marines qu’il a ordonné. Mais le couvre-feu décrété par la maire démocrate de la ville a aussi pu y contribuer.Le président conserve, pour le moment, le contrôle de la Garde nationale en Californie, après la suspension en appel de l’interdiction par un juge fédéral de déployer ces réservistes dans la seconde ville du pays. “Merci pour cette décision!” a salué Donald Trump vendredi. “Si je n’avais pas envoyé les militaires à Los Angeles, la ville serait en train de brûler complétement en ce moment”, a-t-il réaffirmé sur sa plateforme Truth Social. Saisi par le gouverneur démocrate de l’Etat Gavin Newsom, un juge fédéral avait estimé illégal en première instance jeudi l’ordre donné par le président de déployer la Garde nationale pour faire face aux manifestations anti-expulsions de migrants. Le magistrat avait du même coup ordonné que le contrôle de ce corps de réserve à double tutelle soit rendu au gouverneur démocrate. – “Pas un monarque” -Figure centrale de l’opposition démocrate, M. Newsom, 57 ans, est considéré comme un possible candidat démocrate à la présidentielle de 2028.Les tensions ont éclaté le 6 juin quand des manifestants ont commencé à protester contre des raids anti-migrants menés par la police de l’immigration (ICE).Largement pacifiques, les manifestations ont toutefois été marquées par des violences parfois spectaculaires, avec des voitures brûlées, le pillage de commerces, des jets de feux d’artifices ou la coupure d’une grande voie rapide. Mais ces heurts sont restés “bien loin” de la “rébellion” décrite par Donald Trump pour justifier le déploiement de militaires, a estimé le juge Breyer.Le président “n’est pas un monarque, ce n’est pas un roi, et il devrait cesser d’agir comme tel”, a réagi Gavin Newsom après la décision du juge de première instance. Donald Trump a promis pendant sa campagne de s’en prendre aux “criminels venus de l’étranger”. Mais ses efforts pour lutter contre l’immigration clandestine ont largement dépassé ce cadre et visé en particulier les immigrés latino-américains, indispensables à certains secteurs d’activité. Sur le plan économique, il a admis devoir “faire quelque chose” rapidement pour préserver les nombreux travailleurs immigrés de l’agriculture et de l’hôtellerie.Au Mexique, d’où sont originaires nombre de sans-papiers présents au Etats-Unis, la présidente Claudia Sheinbaum a expliqué avoir dit à un haut responsable américain qu’elle n’était “pas d’accord sur le fait de recourir à des descentes de police pour arrêter des personnes qui travaillent honnêtement”.

Calme précaire à Los Angeles, avant les manifestations nationales du week-end

Un calme précaire règne vendredi à Los Angeles avant les manifestations prévues samedi dans l’ensemble du pays contre la politique de Donald Trump, en même temps que la grande parade militaire voulue par le président républicain pour les 250 ans de l’armée américaine. La nuit s’est déroulée sans incident dans la mégalopole où vit une importante population hispanique, théâtre ces jours derniers de manifestations contre l’interpellation musclée d’étrangers en situation irrégulière.”Pourquoi je suis ici? Pour les gens qui ont été arrêtés, ceux qui n’ont pas de voix”, a confié à l’AFP Jasmine, qui n’a pas donné son nom de famille.Samedi, des opposants à l’adminstration de Trump se réuniront dans tout le pays sous le slogan “No Kings” (“Pas de rois”). Des manifestations sont prévues dans une centaine de villes. Donald Trump s’est attribué jeudi le relatif retour au calme au déploiement à Los Angeles d’environ 4.000 réservistes des Gardes nationaux et 700 Marines qu’il a ordonné. Mais le couvre-feu décrété par la maire démocrate de la ville a aussi pu y contribuer.Le président conserve, pour le moment, le contrôle de la Garde nationale en Californie, après la suspension en appel de l’interdiction par un juge fédéral de déployer ces réservistes dans la seconde ville du pays. “Merci pour cette décision!” a salué Donald Trump vendredi. “Si je n’avais pas envoyé les militaires à Los Angeles, la ville serait en train de brûler complétement en ce moment”, a-t-il réaffirmé sur sa plateforme Truth Social. Saisi par le gouverneur démocrate de l’Etat Gavin Newsom, un juge fédéral avait estimé illégal en première instance jeudi l’ordre donné par le président de déployer la Garde nationale pour faire face aux manifestations anti-expulsions de migrants. Le magistrat avait du même coup ordonné que le contrôle de ce corps de réserve à double tutelle soit rendu au gouverneur démocrate. – “Pas un monarque” -Figure centrale de l’opposition démocrate, M. Newsom, 57 ans, est considéré comme un possible candidat démocrate à la présidentielle de 2028.Les tensions ont éclaté le 6 juin quand des manifestants ont commencé à protester contre des raids anti-migrants menés par la police de l’immigration (ICE).Largement pacifiques, les manifestations ont toutefois été marquées par des violences parfois spectaculaires, avec des voitures brûlées, le pillage de commerces, des jets de feux d’artifices ou la coupure d’une grande voie rapide. Mais ces heurts sont restés “bien loin” de la “rébellion” décrite par Donald Trump pour justifier le déploiement de militaires, a estimé le juge Breyer.Le président “n’est pas un monarque, ce n’est pas un roi, et il devrait cesser d’agir comme tel”, a réagi Gavin Newsom après la décision du juge de première instance. Donald Trump a promis pendant sa campagne de s’en prendre aux “criminels venus de l’étranger”. Mais ses efforts pour lutter contre l’immigration clandestine ont largement dépassé ce cadre et visé en particulier les immigrés latino-américains, indispensables à certains secteurs d’activité. Sur le plan économique, il a admis devoir “faire quelque chose” rapidement pour préserver les nombreux travailleurs immigrés de l’agriculture et de l’hôtellerie.Au Mexique, d’où sont originaires nombre de sans-papiers présents au Etats-Unis, la présidente Claudia Sheinbaum a expliqué avoir dit à un haut responsable américain qu’elle n’était “pas d’accord sur le fait de recourir à des descentes de police pour arrêter des personnes qui travaillent honnêtement”.

Spain economy minister urges fair, balanced EU-US tariff deal

Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said a tariff pact between the EU and Washington should be “fair and balanced,” although both sides remain far from a deal as a July deadline approaches.”There is still a long way to go to reach an agreement, but there remains the will to do so,” Cuerpo told AFP in an interview on Thursday.His comments came on the sidelines of a trip to Houston, Texas, as he sought to reassure Spanish businesses rattled by US President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs.Trump has slapped a 10 percent tariff on almost all trading partners including the European Union since returning to the presidency in January.He also threatened to impose heftier duties of 50 percent on the bloc, although pausing the higher rate until July 9.For now, Trump’s existing tariffs, including 25 percent US duties on imported automobiles and 50 percent levies on steel and aluminum, are affecting European companies, Cuerpo said.Pressure is mounting as July approaches.US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC this week that an EU deal will likely be among the last that Washington completes, even as he remained optimistic that both sides would reach this goal.Arriving at a deal by July 9 would be ideal as it signals “certainty and confidence,” Cuerpo said.He maintained that things are “progressing,” stressing that “there is unanimity among the 27 member states to reach a fair and balanced agreement.”- No ‘overreaction’ -He added that while Europe has prepared a response package to Trump’s tariffs, Brussels is holding off implementation so that it cannot be “interpreted as an escalation in this tariff conflict.”It is critical that the EU gives a “very clear signal” that it wants to strike a deal with the Trump administration, he said.”The fundamental thing is to avoid any element of overreaction,” he added.Besides the EU, higher US tariffs on goods from dozens of economies including Japan and India are also due to take effect in July.Trump has taken an especially harsh stance on China as Beijing pushed back on US levies, with both sides engaging in an escalating tariffs war that has only been temporarily rolled back.The Spanish minister expects Trump’s tariffs to have limited effect on his country’s economic growth this year, given its smaller exposure to the US market.But he warned that certain sectors like olive oil and wine are at higher risk as more of such exports head to the United States.In the interim, Cuerpo noted the importance too of the Mercosur agreement, a trade deal between the European Union and four South American nations including Brazil.Asked if a new global trade order is emerging, Cuerpo said: “This feeling is widely shared.””We are witnessing a rebalancing of these trade relations at the international level and what nobody knows is what’s the new point we will reach,” he added.