China retail sales pick up speed, beat forecasts in October

China’s retail sales last month grew at their fastest clip since the start of the year, official figures showed Friday, an encouraging sign for Beijing as it looks to boost sluggish consumption.Officials have since late September unveiled a slew of measures including interest rate cuts and debt swaps intended to boost activity in the world’s second-largest economy, which has struggled to regain momentum since the pandemic.Among the woes facing policymakers are slumping domestic consumption resulting in deflationary pressure, a property sector bust and geopolitically fraught trade disputes.Retail sales expanded 4.8 percent on-year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, speeding up from the 3.2 percent in September.The reading also significantly outperformed the 3.8 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and represents the best reading since February.Figures also showed the national urban unemployment rate fell slightly to five percent from 5.1 percent in September.However, industrial production growth edged down to 5.3 percent in October, the NBS figures showed, from 5.4 percent the previous month.The NBS said in a statement that in October “positive factors accumulated and increased and the national economy was stable, with progress and growth”.Beijing is pushing for an official national growth target this year of around five percent, a goal most economists believe it will narrowly miss.But recent weeks have seen officials announce their most aggressive measures in years in a bid to breathe fresh life into the economy.The new policies have included a debt swap programme to ease the burden on local governments, mortgage rate cuts and the elimination of certain restrictions on home purchases.”The economy stabilised in October because of the policy shift in late September,” wrote Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note.But Zhang warned that the “property sector has not turned around”.The market is now turning its attention to the new year, with prospects of an intensified trade war under US president-elect Donald Trump, Zhang added.”The key question is how much fiscal stimulus China will run to counter potential export slowdown.”

Japan growth slows as new PM readies stimulus

Japan’s growth slowed in the third quarter, official data showed Friday, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeks to jumpstart the world’s fourth-largest economy.One of the fiercest typhoons to hit Japan in decades and a government “megaquake” warning weighed on factory production and other economic activity this summer.That dragged on gross domestic product (GDP) and the country saw growth of 0.2 percent between July and September, according to a preliminary reading by the Cabinet Office.The data met market expectations, but marked a slowdown from a revised 0.5 percent in the previous three months. Compared with the same period a year earlier GDP grew 0.9 percent, much slower than the downwardly revised 2.2 percent in April-June.The government is expecting a “gradual recovery” of the economy — beset for decades by stagnation and harmful deflation — chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday.”Our country is at an important crossroads as it’s about to transition into a growth-based economy driven by wage hikes and investment,” he told a regular briefing.”To realise that, we will implement all possible economic and fiscal policies, including a package currently under consideration.”Ishiba kept his job in a parliamentary vote on Monday, despite last month leading the ruling coalition to its worst general election result in 15 years.The 67-year-old has unveiled plans for the government to support the AI and semiconductor sectors with more than 10 trillion yen ($64 billion) by 2030.He also hopes to win over opposition parties this month to pass a draft supplementary budget for a new stimulus package — reportedly to include cash handouts for low-income households and families.Higher spending on cars, as production resumed after disruption related to a domestic testing scandal, helped boost output during the quarter, analysts said.Wage hikes and temporary income tax cuts were also positive factors.But this was tempered by Typhoon Shanshan and the “megaquake” alert — issued after a magnitude 7.1 jolt to ready people for the risk of an even bigger quake that ultimately did not occur.Factory production was also hit when Shanshan descended in late August, forcing the cancellation of trains and flights.Earlier the same month, “tourism demand was weighed down” by the megaquake alert, issued by the weather agency for the first time under a new warning system.This prompted consumers to stock up on emergency supplies, leading to shortages of rice in supermarkets, while thousands cancelled holidays during the week-long advisory.”The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters,” Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday.However, the Bank of Japan “will be encouraged by the strength in consumer spending and we still expect it to press ahead with another rate hike at its meeting next month”, he predicted.

Xi, Biden in Peru for APEC summit, pre-Trump face-to-face

US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping arrived in Peru Thursday for an Asia-Pacific summit where they will likely meet for the last time under a cloud of diplomatic uncertainty cast by Donald Trump’s election victory.Air Force One touched down at an air base outside Lima as Xi, who landed hours earlier, was received at the presidential palace by Peruvian leader Dina Boluarte on the eve of a two-day heads-of-state meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping.Biden and Xi are due to hold talks Saturday, in what a US administration official said will probably be the last face-to-face between the sitting leaders of the world’s largest economies before Trump is sworn in in January.With the Republican president-elect having signaled a confrontational approach to Beijing for his second term, the bilateral meeting will be a closely watched affair.APEC, created in 1989 with the goal of regional trade liberalization, brings together 21 economies that jointly represent about 60 percent of world GDP and over 40 percent of global commerce.The summit program was to focus on trade and investment for what proponents dubbed inclusive growth.But uncertainty over Trump’s next moves now clouds the agenda — as it does for the COP29 climate talks underway in Azerbaijan, and a G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.On Thursday, APEC ministers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, held their own meeting behind closed doors in Lima to set the tone for the two-day summit to follow.Trump announced this week he will replace Blinken with Senator Marco Rubio, a China hawk.- ‘America First’ -The summit will also be attended by Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and Indonesia, among others.President Vladimir Putin of APEC member Russia will not be present.Trump’s “America First” agenda is based on protectionist trade policies, increased domestic fossil fuel extraction, and avoiding foreign conflicts.It threatens alliances Biden has built on issues ranging from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to climate change and commerce.The Republican president-elect has threatened tariffs of up to 60 percent on imports of Chinese goods to even out what he says is an imbalance in bilateral trade.China is grappling with a prolonged housing crisis and sluggish consumption that can only be made worse by a new trade war with Washington.But economists say punitive levies would also harm the American economy, and others further afield.- ‘Criminals and drugs’ -China is an ally of Western pariahs Russia and North Korea, and is building up its own military capacity while ramping up pressure on Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory.It is also expanding its reach into Latin America through infrastructure and other projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.Xi on Thursday inaugurated South America’s first Chinese-funded port, in Chancay, north of Lima.He was accompanied for the virtual ceremony by Boluarte, who praised China for playing “a major role in the growth of our economy.”At the same time, the top US diplomat for Latin America, Brian Nichols, warned in Lima that Latin American nations must be vigilant on Chinese investment.Biden will on Friday meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol — key US allies in Asia.Traveling with Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the partner nations will announce the creation of a secretariat to ensure the trilateral alliance “will be an enduring feature of American policy in the Indo-Pacific going forward.”China isn’t the only country in Trump’s economic crosshairs.The incoming US leader has threatened tariffs of 25 percent or more on goods coming from Mexico — another APEC member — unless it stops an “onslaught of criminals and drugs” crossing the border.Peru has deployed more than 13,000 members of the armed forces to keep the peace in Lima as transport workers and shop owners protested against crime and perceived government neglect.

Xi inaugurates South America’s first Chinese-funded port in Peru

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday inaugurated Latin America’s first Beijing-funded port in Chancay, Peru — a symbol of the Asian superpower’s growing influence on the continent as it prepares to face off with a new Donald Trump administration.The $3.5-billion complex, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of Lima, is meant to serve as a hub for Chinese trade as the country is under threat of major tariff hikes once Trump reenters the White House for a second term.The port was officially opened in a ceremony overseen virtually by Xi and Peruvian counterpart Dina Boluarte from Lima, where they will attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on Friday and Saturday.”China plays a major role in the growth of our economy,” Boluarte said at the event, even as a US official warned Latin American nations should be vigilant on Chinese investment.”We believe it is essential that countries across the hemisphere ensure that PRC (People’s Republic of China) economic activities respect local laws as well as safeguard human rights and environmental protections,” Brian Nichols, the top US diplomat for Latin America, said in Lima.Xi, for his part, said the port would help “promote connectivity” between South America and China.”We are witnessing… the birth of a new land-sea channel between Asia and Latin America in the new era,” Xi saidUS President Joe Biden also arrived Thursday to attend the APEC summit in Peru, which Nichols described as a “crucial ally.”- Belt and Road -Peru — one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies over the past decade — is China’s fourth-largest Latin American trading partner, with bilateral flows of nearly $36 billion in 2023.Chancay port will also serve Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and other South American countries, allowing them to skirt ports in Mexico and the United States as they trade with Asia.Chancay is the latest addition to a vast collection of railways, highways and other infrastructure projects built under China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative to stimulate trade and boost Beijing’s political clout.Hong Kong-listed Cosco Shipping Ports, which owns 60 percent of the port, has a 30-year concession to operate the terminal and has forecast it will handle up to a million containers in its first year of operation.Cosco Shipping Ports is a subsidiary of China’s COSCO Shipping Corporation.The port’s maximum depth is 17.8 meters (58.4 feet), allowing it to handle the world’s biggest container ships.Chancay, a fishing town of some 50,000 inhabitants, was chosen for its strategic location in the heart of South America.It is now expected to become a major hub for imports of Asian electronics, textiles and other consumer goods and for the export of minerals — including lithium and copper.Xi described the complex as South America’s “first smart and green port.”Once completed, he said, it will reduce the transit between China and Peru by more than 10 days, and cut logistics costs by over 20 percent.burs-mlr/acb