Oil prices rise ahead of US-Russia summit as stocks digest inflation data
Wall Street stocks finished little changed Thursday as markets absorbed a disappointing inflation report, while oil prices shot higher on the eve of a US-Russia summit on Ukraine.After a negative start, major US indices worked their way back up to even following July wholesale price data.The producer price index rose 0.9 percent on a month-on-month basis, much greater than analysts expected following benign consumer pricing data earlier this week. “The large spike in the Producer Price Index (PPI) this morning shows inflation is coursing through the economy, even if it hasn’t been felt by consumers yet,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for US-based Northlight Asset Management.Zaccarelli called the report a “most unwelcome surprise,” adding that it is “likely to unwind some of the optimism of a ‘guaranteed’ rate cut next month” from the Federal Reserve.However, futures markets still were betting on a quarter point interest rate decrease, but the PPI data likely means a large half-point rate cut is “off the table,” said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital Management.All three major US indices finished within 0.1 percent of their start points.In Europe, the main markets in Paris, Frankfurt and London registered positive figures by the close of trading.London rallied back into the green from an earlier slump as data showed the UK economy had slowed in the second quarter — though less than feared — as Trump’s tariffs came into effect.Meanwhile, oil prices finished up around two percent as traders nervously awaited US President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid fears by European leaders that Putin will cajole Trump into a settlement imposed on Ukraine.But oil traders are worried about a different outcome: “that if the meeting doesn’t go well, we’ll see stronger sanctions on Russian oil thereby depriving the world of or making it much difficult for this oil to get to the market,” said Stephen Schork of the Schork Group.The market is “very nervous,” Schork added. Among individual companies, Intel surged 7.4 percent following a Bloomberg News report that Trump is considering an investment in the beleaguered chip company in exchange for a government stake. Such a deal would represent Trump’s latest departure from the US government’s traditional laissez-faire posture towards business.- Key figures at around 2030 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN less than 0.1 percent at 44,911.26 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,468.54 (close)New York – Nasdaq: DOWN FLAT at 21,710.67 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,177.24 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.8 percent at 7,870.34 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.8 percent at 24,377.50 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.5 percent at 42,649.26 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.5 percent at 25,489.59 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3,666.44 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1657 from $1.1705 on WednesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3535 from $1.3576 Dollar/yen: UP at 147.76 yen from 147.38 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.05 pence from 86.21 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.8 percent at $66.84 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 2.1 percent at $63.96 per barrelburs-jmb/jgc
US producer inflation highest in three years in July
US producer price inflation bounced in July to its highest reading since 2022, data showed Thursday, with underlying signs that businesses are facing pressures from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.The rise in services costs exceeded that in goods, contributing to a markedly larger advance than analysts expected.But economists noted that the headline increase might be overstated — boosted by a range of volatile factors — even as there are also price gains in goods exposed to tariffs.The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.9 percent on a month-on-month basis after a flat reading in June, said the Department of Labor.A Briefing.com analyst consensus forecast expected a much smaller jump of 0.2 percent.The PPI measures changes in producers’ prices, and the report is seen by some as a bellwether for what consumers could face in the months ahead if firms choose to pass on more costs.On Wall Street, all three major US indexes retreated after the report but generally shook off early losses.Businesses have been grappling with Trump’s sweeping tariffs after he targeted most trading partners with a 10-percent levy this year, alongside steeper levels on sectors like steel and aluminum.The latest numbers took the overall PPI figure to 3.3 percent from a year ago, said the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The cost uptick in goods was 0.7 percent while that of services was 1.1 percent — marking the biggest such jump since March 2022 as well.While the advance was “broad-based” in July, more than three-quarters can be traced to services, the Labor Department said. Much of this was due to trade services, relating to changes in margins for wholesalers and retailers. Economists noted this was a sign that trade disruptions are hitting supply chains, though trade services are also a volatile component.Prices for final demand goods made a big advance too, with 40 percent of the July increase traced to foods.- Fed dilemma -All of this complicates the Federal Reserve’s job as it seeks to balance inflation risks with the health of the labor market in mulling the right time for the next interest rate cut.Fed policymakers have been monitoring the impact of tariffs on consumer inflation, with some officials arguing the hit will be one-off and others cautious about more persistent effects.”Input costs for producers jumped in July as price pressures for businesses build from compounding tariff impacts,” said Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers in a note.”While businesses have assumed the majority of tariff costs increases so far, margins are being increasingly squeezed by higher costs for imported goods,” he added.He said that tariff price hikes were most obvious within metal and food categories, with readings for steel and aluminum — both targeted with 50-percent levies — jumping in recent months and adding to cost concerns for manufacturers.Ayers expects more of the tariff burden borne by companies so far to pass through to consumer prices in the coming months.”Tariff-exposed goods are rising at a rapid clip, indicating that the willingness and ability of businesses to absorb tariff costs may be beginning to wane,” added Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics.The effects of Trump’s tariffs on consumer inflation have been limited for now, with a key gauge — the consumer price index — steady at 2.7 percent in July.This, combined with government employment data showing that recent hiring numbers were significantly weaker than estimated, has raised the odds of a September rate cut by the central bank.Martin said the PPI data “provides a counter-balance to these reports” and highlights the Fed’s dilemma.”The big picture remains that inflation is further away from the Fed’s target than the unemployment rate and is likely to climb further over the coming months,” he said.”The path forward will have to traverse a tight rope between the next employment and price reports,” Martin added.
California to change election maps to counter Texas, governor says
California unveiled plans to redraw its electoral districts Thursday, as Democrats push back on what they say is Donald Trump’s effort to rig next year’s Congressional elections to safeguard his slim Republican majority.Governor Gavin Newsom said he would ask voters to approve new maps that would effectively neutralize changes Texas is planning that are expected to give Republicans more seats in the House of Representatives.”Today is Liberation Day in the State of California,” Newsom told supporters at the Democracy Center in Los Angeles.”Donald Trump, you have poked the bear, and we will punch back,” he said, a reference to the animal that symbolizes the 39-million strong state.The move came after weeks of maneuvering in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott — acting at Trump’s behest — is trying to redraw electoral districts to benefit his Republican Party, a process known as gerrymandering.Districts are usually redrawn every ten years after the national census and are supposed to be based on its findings, so that districts accurately represent the people who live there.The mid-decade effort to change the boundaries is seen by Democrats as a naked attempt to bolster the GOP, and to help it retain its narrow House majority in next year’s mid-terms.Dozens of Texas Democrats have fled the state in an effort to block the passage of the proposed blueprint during a special legislative session, even as Republicans have threatened to arrest them.Newsom said a special ballot on November 4 would ask California voters to create temporary congressional districts for the next two elections, with power to set boundaries returned to an independent commission thereafter.”We’re doing this in reaction to a president of the United States that called a sitting governor of the state of Texas and said, ‘find me five seats.'”He is, once again, trying to rig the system. He doesn’t play by a different set of rules; he doesn’t believe in the rules.”We have got to recognize the cards that have been dealt, and we have got to meet fire with fire.”Newsom, who is believed to harbor Oval Office ambitions, has emerged as a leading anti-Trump voice from a Democratic Party still floundering after last year’s ballot box drubbing.The two men have frequently locked horns, including over aggressive immigration enforcement raids the administration ordered in Los Angeles.In June, after thousands took to the streets to protest seemingly indiscriminate arrests by masked and unidentified agents, Trump sent in the National Guard and the Marines, claiming it was necessary to restore order.On Thursday, masked Border Patrol agents were seen outside the Democracy Center, part of a museum in the Little Tokyo district of Los Angeles, despite there being no obvious presence of their usual arrest targets.Newsom’s press conference came after he had trolled Trump for days on social media, aping the president’s instantly recognizable style.A series of all-caps posts from Newsom’s official account have employed Trumpian language and been sprinkled liberally — if not logically — with punctuation, as well as nicknames, boasts and silly-sounding threats.”DONNIE J. AND KaroLYIN’ LEAVITT WILL HAVE THEIR (LITTLE) HANDS “FULL” TODAY,” read one tweet on Thursday, referring to the president and his press spokeswoman.”I, GAVIN CHRISTOPHER NEWSOM, AMERICA’S FAVORITE GOVERNOR (MANY SAY), WILL HOST THE GREATEST PRESS CONFERENCE OF ALL TIME. AFTER THAT — “THE MAPS” WILL SOON BE RELEASED. VERY MUCH ANTICIPATED.”
YouTube va deviner l’âge des utilisateurs grâce à l’IA
YouTube a commencé à tester un outil d’intelligence artificielle (IA) pour identifier l’âge de ses utilisateurs aux Etats-Unis, afin de mieux protéger les mineurs des contenus et habitudes de navigation en ligne considérés comme inappropriés pour eux.”Cette technologie va nous permettre de déduire l’âge d’un utilisateur et d’utiliser ce signal – indépendamment de la date de naissance indiquée dans le compte – pour proposer des expériences et des protections adaptées”, a expliqué la plateforme de vidéos de Google dans un billet de blog fin juillet.La phase de test sur une partie des utilisateurs américains a commencé mercredi, d’après un message adressé aux créateurs de contenus.La technologie est censée interpréter “différents signaux”, tels que les types de vidéos recherchées et regardées ou encore l’ancienneté du compte. Si le système détermine qu’un utilisateur a moins de 18 ans, les règles pour les adolescents s’appliqueront automatiquement : la publicité ne sera plus personnalisée et des garde-fous dans les recommandations seront activés, pour limiter le visionnage répété de certains contenus, notamment.En cas d’erreur, la personne “aura la possibilité de prouver qu’elle a bien 18 ans ou plus, par exemple en utilisant une carte bancaire ou une pièce d’identité officielle”, a précisé YouTube.Le service de streaming a ajouté avoir déjà testé ce système ailleurs avec succès. Elle prévoit de l’étendre à d’autres marchés.YouTube et de nombreuses autres plateformes, Instagram (Meta) et TikTok en tête, sont régulièrement accusées de nuire à la santé des enfants et adolescents et de ne pas suffisamment les protéger des dangers, des phénomènes d’addiction aux contenus néfastes et aux criminels.De nombreux pays et Etats américains cherchent à forcer les géants des technologies à garantir le respect des règlements liés à l’âge des utilisateurs.L’Australie a ainsi récemment décidé d’interdire YouTube aux moins de 16 ans afin de les protéger contre les “algorithmes prédateurs”, selon les termes de la ministre de la Communication, Anika Wells.Le Parlement australien avait déjà adopté en 2024 une loi pionnière interdisant l’accès aux réseaux sociaux tels que TikTok, X ou encore Facebook et Instagram aux mineurs de moins de 16 ans, mais YouTube n’était pas inclus.
YouTube va deviner l’âge des utilisateurs grâce à l’IA
YouTube a commencé à tester un outil d’intelligence artificielle (IA) pour identifier l’âge de ses utilisateurs aux Etats-Unis, afin de mieux protéger les mineurs des contenus et habitudes de navigation en ligne considérés comme inappropriés pour eux.”Cette technologie va nous permettre de déduire l’âge d’un utilisateur et d’utiliser ce signal – indépendamment de la date de naissance indiquée dans le compte – pour proposer des expériences et des protections adaptées”, a expliqué la plateforme de vidéos de Google dans un billet de blog fin juillet.La phase de test sur une partie des utilisateurs américains a commencé mercredi, d’après un message adressé aux créateurs de contenus.La technologie est censée interpréter “différents signaux”, tels que les types de vidéos recherchées et regardées ou encore l’ancienneté du compte. Si le système détermine qu’un utilisateur a moins de 18 ans, les règles pour les adolescents s’appliqueront automatiquement : la publicité ne sera plus personnalisée et des garde-fous dans les recommandations seront activés, pour limiter le visionnage répété de certains contenus, notamment.En cas d’erreur, la personne “aura la possibilité de prouver qu’elle a bien 18 ans ou plus, par exemple en utilisant une carte bancaire ou une pièce d’identité officielle”, a précisé YouTube.Le service de streaming a ajouté avoir déjà testé ce système ailleurs avec succès. Elle prévoit de l’étendre à d’autres marchés.YouTube et de nombreuses autres plateformes, Instagram (Meta) et TikTok en tête, sont régulièrement accusées de nuire à la santé des enfants et adolescents et de ne pas suffisamment les protéger des dangers, des phénomènes d’addiction aux contenus néfastes et aux criminels.De nombreux pays et Etats américains cherchent à forcer les géants des technologies à garantir le respect des règlements liés à l’âge des utilisateurs.L’Australie a ainsi récemment décidé d’interdire YouTube aux moins de 16 ans afin de les protéger contre les “algorithmes prédateurs”, selon les termes de la ministre de la Communication, Anika Wells.Le Parlement australien avait déjà adopté en 2024 une loi pionnière interdisant l’accès aux réseaux sociaux tels que TikTok, X ou encore Facebook et Instagram aux mineurs de moins de 16 ans, mais YouTube n’était pas inclus.
Wall Street quasi-stable après une hausse inattendue des prix à la production
La Bourse de New York a terminé sans grand entrain jeudi, minée par une nette hausse des prix à la production aux Etats-Unis, qui viennent remettre en question le calendrier des baisses de taux de la Réserve fédérale (Fed). Le Dow Jones (-0,02%) et l’indice Nasdaq (-0,03%) ont tous les deux terminé à l’équilibre. L’indice élargi S&P 500 (+0,03%) était également quasiment stable mais a tout de même réussi à grappiller un record en clôture, à 6.468,54 points.”Tout est assez stable (…) ce qui est plutôt positif compte tenu de l’ampleur du raté sur l’indice PPI”, note auprès de l’AFP Art Hogan, de B. Riley Wealth Management.En début de séance, les investisseurs ont mal réagi à la publication de l’indice des prix à la production (PPI), qui a progressé de 0,9%, selon les données publiées jeudi par le département du Travail, après être resté stable en juin.C’est une augmentation bien plus importante que ce qu’attendait le marché, qui tablait plutôt sur une avancée de 0,2% des prix en juillet, selon le consensus publié par MarketWatch.Hors prix de l’alimentation, de l’énergie et des services commerciaux, considérés comme plus volatils, la progression des prix à la production reste importante, de l’ordre de 0,6%.Il s’agit de la hausse la plus marquée de l’indice sous-jacent depuis mars 2022, soit peu avant le pic d’inflation observé à l’été 2022 aux Etats-Unis.”Les droits de douane poussent les entreprises à augmenter les prix qu’elles se facturent mutuellement, ce qui se traduira à terme par une hausse des prix à la consommation”, estime Bill Adams, de Comerica Bank. En outre, “ce rapport est un élément supplémentaire en défaveur d’une baisse des taux” de la Fed, juge l’analyste. Une large majorité d’experts s’attendent toujours à une réduction des taux lors de la prochaine réunion du comité de politique monétaire de l’institution (FOMC), selon l’outil de veille de CME. Mais ils sont de moins en moins à prévoir d’autres baisses lors des réunions suivantes.Selon M. Hogan, les investisseurs vont être particulièrement attentifs à la publication des ventes au détail vendredi, qui pourraient “faire bouger” Wall Street. Sur le marché obligataire, vers 20H15 GMT, le rendement des emprunts d’Etat américains à dix ans se tendait nettement à 4,28% contre 4,23% à la clôture mercredi. Les acteurs du marché continuent par ailleurs de surveiller les développements sur le plan commercial, notamment avec certains des principaux partenaires commerciaux des Etats-Unis.”La Chine est toujours en pourparlers et en phase de négociation, tandis que le Mexique et le Canada sont dans l’incertitude”, explique M. Hogan. “Tant que nous ne signons pas d’accords (avec ces pays, ndlr), nous ne pouvons pas vraiment dire que nous avons mis un terme à cette guerre commerciale”, ajoute l’analyste.A la cote, le géant des semiconducteurs Intel a bondi de 7,38% à 23,86 dollars après des informations de l’agence Bloomberg selon lesquelles le gouvernement américain pourrait acquérir une participation dans l’entreprise.Intel a fini l’année 2024 avec des résultats meilleurs qu’escompté, mais des perspectives jugées trop faibles par le marché.Les célèbres sandales de la marque allemande Birkenstock ont été boudées (-3,62% à 48,41 dollars). Malgré des performances globalement meilleures qu’attendu, la marque a connu un ralentissement de la croissance de son chiffre d’affaires. Le groupe américain de prêt-à-porter multimarques Tapestry a nettement chuté (-15,71% à 95,69 dollars) après que l’entreprise a déclaré -à l’occasion de la publication de ses résultats- que les droits de douane allaient peser sur ses bénéfices.La plateforme d’échanges de cryptomonnaies Bullish (+9,851% à 74,69 dollars) a poursuivi son ascension pour son deuxième jour de cotation à la Bourse de New York.
Trump vows not to be intimidated ahead of Putin summit
US President Donald Trump insisted Thursday he would not be intimidated by Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the eve of a high-stakes summit and said Ukraine would be involved in any deal on its fate.Putin flies to Alaska on Friday at the invitation of Trump in his first visit to a Western country since he ordered the 2022 invasion of Ukraine that has killed tens of thousands of people.As Russia made gains on the battlefield, the Kremlin said the two presidents planned to meet one-on-one, heightening fears of European leaders that Putin will cajole Trump into a settlement imposed on Ukraine.Trump insisted to reporters at the White House: “I am president, and he’s not going to mess around with me.””I’ll know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes or five minutes… whether or not we’re going to have a good meeting or a bad meeting,” Trump said.”And if it’s a bad meeting, it’ll end very quickly, and if it’s a good meeting, we’re going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future,” said Trump, who gave the summit a one in four chance of failure.Trump has voiced admiration for Putin in the past and faced wide criticism after a 2018 summit in Helsinki where he appeared to accept the Russian’s denials of US intelligence on Moscow’s meddling in US elections.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited to the Alaska summit, which he has denounced as a reward to Putin, and has refused Trump’s calls to surrender territory.Trump promised not to finalize any deal with Putin and said he hoped to hold a three-way summit with Zelensky, possibly immediately afterward in Alaska.”The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that’s going to be a meeting where they make a deal. And I don’t want to use the word ‘divvy’ things up. But you know, to a certain extent, it’s not a bad term,” Trump told Fox News Radio.Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters any future deal needed also to ensure “security guarantees” for Ukraine.But Trump has previously backed Russia’s stance in ruling out letting Ukraine join NATO.- Shifting Trump tone -Trump had boasted that he could end the war within 24 hours of returning to the White House in January.But his calls to Putin — and intense pressure on Zelensky to accept concessions — have failed to move the Russian leader and Trump has warned of “very severe consequences” if Putin keeps snubbing his overtures.Putin on Thursday welcomed US diplomacy which he said could also help yield an agreement on nuclear arms control.”The US administration… is making quite energetic and sincere efforts to end the fighting,” Putin told a meeting of top officials in Moscow.The talks are set to begin at 11:30 am (1930 GMT) Friday at the Elmendorf Air Force Base, a major US military installation in Alaska that has been crucial in monitoring Russia.”This conversation will take place in a one-on-one format, naturally with the participation of interpreters,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow.- European support for Zelensky -Zelensky met in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who vowed solidarity, a day after receiving support in Berlin.Russia has made major gains on the ground ahead of the summit.Ukraine on Thursday issued a mandatory evacuation of families with children from the eastern town of Druzhkivka and four nearby villages near an area where Russia made a swift breakthrough.Russian forces had on Tuesday swiftly advanced by up to 10 kilometers (six miles) in a narrow section of the front line, their biggest gain in a 24-hour period in more than a year, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War. Ukraine in turn Thursday fired dozens of drones at Russia, wounding several people and sparking fires at an oil refinery in the southern city of Volgograd.Diplomacy since Russia’s invasion has largely failed to secure agreements beyond swaps of prisoners.Russia said Thursday it had returned 84 prisoners to Ukraine in exchange for an equal number of Russian POWs in the latest exchange.burs-sct/bjt







