Sur un aérodrome isolé, l’Allemagne prépare ses défenses antidrone

C’est sur un aérodrome bâti par les Soviétiques que l’Allemagne prépare aujourd’hui ses défenses antidrone, pour faire face à la menace croissante à travers l’Europe que constituent, selon les autorités, la Russie et ses aéronefs.D’une arme de guerre dominante dans la guerre en Ukraine, avec des innovations en série chez les Russes et les Ukrainiens, les drones hostiles sont devenus une réalité de la “guerre hybride” dans l’Union européenne.Soit un ensemble de moyens non létaux que les Européens soupçonnent Moscou d’utiliser pour affaiblir leur défense, leur démocratie et leur cohésion sociale.En Allemagne, on ne compte plus les signalements de vols au-dessus de bases militaires, de sites industriels ou d’aéroports. Pour Berlin, si certains sont l’oeuvre d’amateurs imprudents, d’autres sont très probablement des opérations d’espionnage ou d’intimidation russes, comme ceux ayant paralysé l’aéroport de Munich début octobre.Face à la multiplication des incidents, le gouvernement, démuni, a promis des investissements à neuf chiffres dans les défenses antidrone et annoncé une réforme pour autoriser la police à abattre de tels appareils.Sur l’aérodrome de Cochstedt, près de Magdebourg (est), les chercheurs du Centre allemand pour l’aéronautique et l’espace (DLR) travaillent d’arrache-pied à des solutions alternatives aux tirs pour neutraliser ces menaces volantes.- Filets et pinces -“Les contre-mesures doivent être adaptées avec précision à chaque situation”, explique Johann Dauer, le responsable de la recherche sur les drones au sein de l’Institut des systèmes de vol du DLR. “Si je veux protéger une foule, au cours d’un concert ou d’un événement politique, je ne peux pas provoquer le crash d’un drone. Je privilégierais des filets ou des drones chasseurs équipés de pinces” pour saisir leur cible, poursuit-il, pendant une visite du site à laquelle l’AFP a été conviée. Parmi les solutions alternatives à l’usage de la force brute, M. Dauer cite également le brouillage, pour empêcher le pilotage d’un appareil. Ou encore la transmission de faux signaux GPS, tandis que, selon lui, des signalements de drones interviennent “presque tous les jours”.Les chercheurs travaillent donc à Cochstedt, en toute discrétion, aux systèmes que les forces de l’ordre allemandes pourraient adopter à l’avenir.L’isolement relatif du site offre un cadre propice. Etant un centre de recherche sur l’aéronautique sans pilote, il peut aussi s’affranchir de certaines règles de sécurité imposées à d’autres organismes pour tester drones et systèmes d’interception.- Innovations menaçantes -“Ici, nous avons l’autorisation de brouiller, de falsifier, voire d’utiliser des lasers — tout ce qu’on ne veut normalement pas dans un aéroport”, explique Daniel Süllberg, le responsable du centre d’essai.Ces contre-mesures électroniques peuvent perturber d’autres appareils. Leur déploiement exige donc des tests rigoureux mais aussi d’être à bonne distance de toute victime collatérale potentielle.Dans la panoplie de capteurs et de radars, certains sont achetés auprès de fournisseurs militaires ou civils. D’autres sont conçus par les équipes du DLR pour détecter les drones, évaluer leur dangerosité et enfin déterminer la meilleure riposte.Le coût reste un défi majeur. Certains systèmes très performants sont bien trop chers pour une utilisation à grande échelle, d’autant que leur efficacité sur le long terme est loin d’être garantie.L’évolution technologique très rapide, portée par la guerre en Ukraine, le coût relativement faible des drones et le développement de l’intelligence artificielle accroissent le risque d’obsolescence des moyens de défense. Un problème que l’armée ukrainienne connaît bien.Puisque “l’innovation est très forte du côté des menaces”, souligne M. Dauer, “la défense doit suivre, tout en restant abordable. Car les drones que nous combattons ne sont souvent pas chers — la protection ne doit donc pas l’être non plus”.

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 percent. The global inflation rate is expected to remain elevated at 4.2 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2026, underpinned by elevated inflation in several countries including the United States. “The tariff shock itself is smaller than initially feared,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump’s tariffs in an agile way.Other factors, including the AI boom and fiscal policies in Europe and China had also helped to prop up the global economy, he said.But, he warned, “the tariff shock is here, and it is further dimming already weak growth prospects.”Since returning to office, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on top trading partners including China and the European Union in a bid to reshape US trading relationships and boost domestic manufacturing. Over the weekend, the US president threatened fresh tariffs of 100 percent on China, on top of current steep levies, criticizing Beijing’s recent decision to tighten export controls on the rare earth minerals crucial to the defense and high-tech sectors. “Everything is very fluid,” Gourinchas told AFP in an interview. “But I think it’s a very useful reminder that we live in a world in which this kind of increase in trade tensions, increase in policy uncertainty, can flare up at any time.”- US upgraded, China unchanged -The IMF raised its prospects for economic growth for the United States, the world’s largest economy, by 0.1 percent this year and next, to 2.0 percent in 2025, and to 2.1 percent in 2026. However, this still represents a marked slowdown from 2024, when US growth hit 2.8 percent.Despite the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the Fund still expects China’s economy to slow to 4.8 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2024, before cooling sharply to just 4.2 percent in 2026, in line with previous estimates. China’s slowdown has been driven by a reduction in net exports, which have been at least partly offset by growing domestic demand fueled by policy stimulus, the Fund said. Elsewhere in Asia, the IMF raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the last outlook update in July, and hiked its prediction for growth in Japan to 1.1 percent — up 0.4 percentage points.  – Europe’s growth troubles continue -The outlook for Europe has improved slightly from July, with the Eurozone now expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2026. But despite the upgrade, Europe’s growth trajectory still significantly lags the United States.Germany’s economy is expected to bounce back from recession to register growth of 0.2 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point, before picking up to 0.9 percent next year. And France, which is in the midst of a prolonged political crisis, is expected to see growth cool to 0.7 percent this year, before rising slightly to 0.9 percent in 2026.The one market exception in the Eurozone is Spain, which saw an upgrade and is now expected to see growth remain resilient at 2.9 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2026.Growth in the United Kingdom is now expected to hit 1.3 percent this year and next. As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian economy is likely to see a marked slowdown in growth this year to just 0.6 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2024, the IMF said, cutting its outlook by 0.4 percentage points.

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 percent. The global inflation rate is expected to remain elevated at 4.2 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2026, underpinned by elevated inflation in several countries including the United States. “The tariff shock itself is smaller than initially feared,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump’s tariffs in an agile way.Other factors, including the AI boom and fiscal policies in Europe and China had also helped to prop up the global economy, he said.But, he warned, “the tariff shock is here, and it is further dimming already weak growth prospects.”Since returning to office, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on top trading partners including China and the European Union in a bid to reshape US trading relationships and boost domestic manufacturing. Over the weekend, the US president threatened fresh tariffs of 100 percent on China, on top of current steep levies, criticizing Beijing’s recent decision to tighten export controls on the rare earth minerals crucial to the defense and high-tech sectors. “Everything is very fluid,” Gourinchas told AFP in an interview. “But I think it’s a very useful reminder that we live in a world in which this kind of increase in trade tensions, increase in policy uncertainty, can flare up at any time.”- US upgraded, China unchanged -The IMF raised its prospects for economic growth for the United States, the world’s largest economy, by 0.1 percent this year and next, to 2.0 percent in 2025, and to 2.1 percent in 2026. However, this still represents a marked slowdown from 2024, when US growth hit 2.8 percent.Despite the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the Fund still expects China’s economy to slow to 4.8 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2024, before cooling sharply to just 4.2 percent in 2026, in line with previous estimates. China’s slowdown has been driven by a reduction in net exports, which have been at least partly offset by growing domestic demand fueled by policy stimulus, the Fund said. Elsewhere in Asia, the IMF raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the last outlook update in July, and hiked its prediction for growth in Japan to 1.1 percent — up 0.4 percentage points.  – Europe’s growth troubles continue -The outlook for Europe has improved slightly from July, with the Eurozone now expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2026. But despite the upgrade, Europe’s growth trajectory still significantly lags the United States.Germany’s economy is expected to bounce back from recession to register growth of 0.2 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point, before picking up to 0.9 percent next year. And France, which is in the midst of a prolonged political crisis, is expected to see growth cool to 0.7 percent this year, before rising slightly to 0.9 percent in 2026.The one market exception in the Eurozone is Spain, which saw an upgrade and is now expected to see growth remain resilient at 2.9 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2026.Growth in the United Kingdom is now expected to hit 1.3 percent this year and next. As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian economy is likely to see a marked slowdown in growth this year to just 0.6 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2024, the IMF said, cutting its outlook by 0.4 percentage points.

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 percent. The global inflation rate is expected to remain elevated at 4.2 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2026, underpinned by elevated inflation in several countries including the United States. “The tariff shock itself is smaller than initially feared,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump’s tariffs in an agile way.Other factors, including the AI boom and fiscal policies in Europe and China had also helped to prop up the global economy, he said.But, he warned, “the tariff shock is here, and it is further dimming already weak growth prospects.”Since returning to office, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on top trading partners including China and the European Union in a bid to reshape US trading relationships and boost domestic manufacturing. Over the weekend, the US president threatened fresh tariffs of 100 percent on China, on top of current steep levies, criticizing Beijing’s recent decision to tighten export controls on the rare earth minerals crucial to the defense and high-tech sectors. “Everything is very fluid,” Gourinchas told AFP in an interview. “But I think it’s a very useful reminder that we live in a world in which this kind of increase in trade tensions, increase in policy uncertainty, can flare up at any time.”- US upgraded, China unchanged -The IMF raised its prospects for economic growth for the United States, the world’s largest economy, by 0.1 percent this year and next, to 2.0 percent in 2025, and to 2.1 percent in 2026. However, this still represents a marked slowdown from 2024, when US growth hit 2.8 percent.Despite the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the Fund still expects China’s economy to slow to 4.8 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2024, before cooling sharply to just 4.2 percent in 2026, in line with previous estimates. China’s slowdown has been driven by a reduction in net exports, which have been at least partly offset by growing domestic demand fueled by policy stimulus, the Fund said. Elsewhere in Asia, the IMF raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the last outlook update in July, and hiked its prediction for growth in Japan to 1.1 percent — up 0.4 percentage points.  – Europe’s growth troubles continue -The outlook for Europe has improved slightly from July, with the Eurozone now expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2026. But despite the upgrade, Europe’s growth trajectory still significantly lags the United States.Germany’s economy is expected to bounce back from recession to register growth of 0.2 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point, before picking up to 0.9 percent next year. And France, which is in the midst of a prolonged political crisis, is expected to see growth cool to 0.7 percent this year, before rising slightly to 0.9 percent in 2026.The one market exception in the Eurozone is Spain, which saw an upgrade and is now expected to see growth remain resilient at 2.9 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2026.Growth in the United Kingdom is now expected to hit 1.3 percent this year and next. As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian economy is likely to see a marked slowdown in growth this year to just 0.6 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2024, the IMF said, cutting its outlook by 0.4 percentage points.

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:42:04 GMT

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast …

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:42:04 GMT Read More »

IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 percent. The global inflation rate is expected to remain elevated at 4.2 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2026, underpinned by elevated inflation in several countries including the United States. “The tariff shock itself is smaller than initially feared,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump’s tariffs in an agile way.Other factors, including the AI boom and fiscal policies in Europe and China had also helped to prop up the global economy, he said.But, he warned, “the tariff shock is here, and it is further dimming already weak growth prospects.”Since returning to office, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on top trading partners including China and the European Union in a bid to reshape US trading relationships and boost domestic manufacturing. Over the weekend, the US president threatened fresh tariffs of 100 percent on China, on top of current steep levies, criticizing Beijing’s recent decision to tighten export controls on the rare earth minerals crucial to the defense and high-tech sectors. “Everything is very fluid,” Gourinchas told AFP in an interview. “But I think it’s a very useful reminder that we live in a world in which this kind of increase in trade tensions, increase in policy uncertainty, can flare up at any time.”- US upgraded, China unchanged -The IMF raised its prospects for economic growth for the United States, the world’s largest economy, by 0.1 percent this year and next, to 2.0 percent in 2025, and to 2.1 percent in 2026. However, this still represents a marked slowdown from 2024, when US growth hit 2.8 percent.Despite the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the Fund still expects China’s economy to slow to 4.8 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2024, before cooling sharply to just 4.2 percent in 2026, in line with previous estimates. China’s slowdown has been driven by a reduction in net exports, which have been at least partly offset by growing domestic demand fueled by policy stimulus, the Fund said. Elsewhere in Asia, the IMF raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the last outlook update in July, and hiked its prediction for growth in Japan to 1.1 percent — up 0.4 percentage points.  – Europe’s growth troubles continue -The outlook for Europe has improved slightly from July, with the Eurozone now expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2026. But despite the upgrade, Europe’s growth trajectory still significantly lags the United States.Germany’s economy is expected to bounce back from recession to register growth of 0.2 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point, before picking up to 0.9 percent next year. And France, which is in the midst of a prolonged political crisis, is expected to see growth cool to 0.7 percent this year, before rising slightly to 0.9 percent in 2026.The one market exception in the Eurozone is Spain, which saw an upgrade and is now expected to see growth remain resilient at 2.9 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2026.Growth in the United Kingdom is now expected to hit 1.3 percent this year and next. As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian economy is likely to see a marked slowdown in growth this year to just 0.6 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2024, the IMF said, cutting its outlook by 0.4 percentage points.

Véhicules blindés et escortes armées: au Mexique, le business de la sécurité se prépare au Mondial-2026

Leopoldo Cerdeira ouvre le feu sur la porte d’une voiture. Son but: démontrer la qualité de son blindage, afin de la louer à des personnalités ou des supporters étrangers fortunés qui viendront au Mexique lors du Mondial-2026.Les balles restent bloquées par les fibres de la solide couche synthétique qui recouvre les 70 véhicules de cet entrepreneur mexicain. Ils sont prêts pour la Coupe du monde de football, que le Mexique co-organisera avec les Etats-Unis et le Canada du 11 juin au 19 juillet prochain.Ces voitures de luxe ont récemment transporté une délégation de la Fifa venue visiter le pays. La flotte, réservée pour le Grand Prix de Formule 1 du Mexique à la fin du mois à Mexico, passera à 80 véhicules pour le Mondial de foot.Chauffeurs, escortes armées, couverture anti-bombes, gilets pare-balles et porte-documents blindés: toute une gamme est proposée par l’industrie de la sécurité, un secteur qui tire profit de la violence criminelle dont souffre le Mexique, avec 30.000 homicides par an.”L’insécurité du pays a fait se développer notre industrie”, reconnaît Gabriel Hernandez, à la tête d’Armoring Group, qui commercialise voitures et vêtements pare-balles pour civils et militaires au Mexique, en Espagne et aux Etats-Unis.Les autorités assurent faire leur maximum pour garantir la sécurité du Mondial, qui se déroulera dans trois villes mexicaines: Mexico, Guadalajara dans l’ouest du pays, et l’industrielle Monterrey, dans le nord.La capitale, qui a déjà accueilli deux finales de Mondial où ont été sacrés le Brésil de Pelé en 1970 et l’Argentine de Maradona en 1986, espère accueillir cinq millions de visiteurs, mais est généralement épargnée par les attaques de narcotrafiquants.- Touristes riches et apeurés –  Guadalajara, au contraire, est le centre des opérations du cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), un groupe désigné comme terroriste par les Etats-Unis qui ont promis une récompense de 15 millions de dollars pour l’arrestation de son chef, Nemesio Oseguera dit “El Mencho”.Pour convaincre le client, il n’y a pas que le blindage: les poignées des voitures peuvent délivrer des électrochocs, les roues pulvériser du gaz au poivre, et les pneus peuvent tenir pendant 80 kilomètres après avoir été perforés.”Nos réservations sont pour des touristes, des gens qui ont de l’argent, qui viennent voir les matches en ayant peur, car ils ont entendu des mauvaises choses sur le Mexique”, commente Leopoldo Cerdeira depuis le siège de sa société, Ruhe.Le prix quotidien pour louer une de ses voitures s’élève de 800 à 1.100 dollars, auxquels il faut rajouter 500 dollars supplémentaires pour bénéficier d’un chauffeur et d’une escorte. Pour 1.500 dollars, le client peut également acquérir un gilet pare-balles discret.Le Mexique accueille des matches du 11 juin au 5 juillet, dont le match inaugural, à Mexico, où 40.000 caméras de vidéosurveillance supplémentaires ont été installées.Dans les trois villes où se joueront des rencontres, l’utilisation de drones sera restreinte.- “Une trêve du Mondial” -Outre la question de la qualité de ses produits, le secteur mexicain des sociétés de sécurité privées doit également éviter de tomber dans les mains des narcotrafiquants, un défi que les entrepreneurs assurent relever.Les cartels ont de toute façon monté leur propre secteur parallèle, et fabriquent des “monstres”, d’énormes véhicules avec des blindages artisanaux. Des groupes comme le CJNG ont publié des vidéos où leurs “sicarios” (tueurs à gage) paradent dans ces véhicules, armés jusqu’aux dents.En début d’année, les autorités ont démantelé un atelier clandestin de blindage dans l’Etat du Sinaloa, dans le nord-ouest du pays, fief d’un autre des grands cartels mexicains.Il y a huit ans, deux ouvriers qui travaillaient pour Leopoldo Cerdeira ont été recrutés par un groupe criminel.D’après l’entrepreneur, ces groupes proposent des salaires trois fois plus élevés, mais le risque est énorme: ses deux anciens employés ont été retrouvés morts dans l’Etat de Sinaloa.Malgré leur dangerosité, les cartels ne représentent pas une menace directe pour le Mondial, estime cependant David Saucedo, consultant en sécurité qui travaille pour des ambassades et des autorités locales.”Eux-mêmes ont une base sociale, qui va profiter des matches”, explique Saucedo. L’expert n’écarte pas un possible accord tacite avec les autorités, qui s’engageraient à ne pas mener d’opérations de grande envergure contre les cartels en échange de l’assurance que ces derniers ne mènent pas “des actes sanglants qui saliraient l’image du Mexique”.”Ce serait une espèce de trêve du Mondial”, assure-t-il.