Washington is in a standoff and the chips are down — with the government shuttered for weeks, federal workers stuck in limbo and millions who rely on health insurance subsidies scared of losing the shirt off their backs. Behind the scenes, it’s not just about budgets — it’s about who’s winning the blame game.Democrats argue they have the clearer story and the more relatable message. Republicans have President Donald Trump’s megaphone, but critics say their argument is tangled in technicalities.Polling shows the public assigning blame to both parties. The most recent surveys show a plurality blaming Republicans, although Trump remains largely unscathed. But with each missed paycheck and rising premium, the stakes get higher — and someone is going to fold.- The stakes -This shutdown isn’t your garden-variety gridlock — it’s already the second-longest in history and neither side looks close to backing down.It is the first significant shutdown driven by Democrats, and only the second time the government has paused over demands to spend rather than save.Democrats want to extend subsidies for health insurance premiums that help millions afford coverage. Republicans say reopen the government first, then maybe we’ll talk.But Republicans control the White House, House, and Senate. So when the lights go out, Democrats say their opponents cannot offload the blame.- Democrats’ play: Keep it simple -Democrats are betting on clarity: Republicans are in charge and letting the government stall while health care costs spiral. Ashley Kirzinger, from health research group KFF, says the message that “health care is at risk” is a widely understood pitch that lands.”What we found is 78 percent of the public — including majorities of Democrats, independents, Republicans and (Trump) supporters — all think Congress should extend the premium tax credits beyond 2025,” she told NPR.Democrats also feel comfortable taking the fight to Republicans on a “tent pole issue” central to their brand, says American University politics professor Matthew Foster. – Republicans move from red meat to procedure -Republicans — from Trump to Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson — kicked off the shutdown with a blunt message: “Democrats want to fund free health care for illegal immigrants.”The claim didn’t hold up, as undocumented immigrants are barred from the benefits Democrats are pushing, and polling on its effectiveness is threadbare.Republicans soon pivoted to process.They argue they passed a “clean CR” — a temporary funding bill — and blame the gridlock on Democrats wielding the “filibuster,” the 60-vote threshold required to get legislation through the 100-member Senate.Critics say voters don’t care about procedural chess, and trying to explain the filibuster is like reading the fine print on a casino voucher.The voters that matter “aren’t paying close enough attention to know this nuance,” Foster says.- Who’s holding the better cards? -Democrats are playing the emotional hand — health care, working families, real-world consequences.Republicans lean on process and power plays. Trump’s bravado fires up the base but analysts say he risks alienating voters who just want their paychecks and prescriptions.”Polls show that people aren’t necessarily blaming him yet, but as the economy turns, as other things do, that could shift drastically,” Foster says.In the most recent polling, Reuters/Ipsos found 50 percent blame Republicans, 43 percent Democrats. Hart Research showed 52 percent blame Trump and Republicans, while 41 percent point the finger at Democrats.Trump’s approval in the Ipsos poll ticked up over the shutdown, from 40 to 42 percent.- Playing the long game -Democrats are looking past the gridlock, and elevating health care as a defining issue for 2026 midterm elections. As premiums rise and frustration builds, they hope voters connect the dots: Republican control equals shutdown pain.Republicans see leverage — a chance to reshape government and flex muscle. But the longer it drags on, analysts say, the more the shutdown looks like a risky bet.”Both sides are blaming the other for breaking America,” said Peter Loge, a professor of political communication at George Washington University.”And if they’re not careful, both sides will be right.”

Held inside a notorious prison among some of California’s most dangerous felons, the San Quentin Film Festival is not your typical Hollywood affair.Red-carpet interviews take place just yards (meters) away from a now dormant execution chamber where hundreds of death-row inmates met grisly ends.Convicted murderers sit alongside famous actors and journalists, applauding films made by their fellow inmates.Among them is Ryan Pagan, serving 77 years for first-degree murder.”I always wanted to be an actor — but unfortunately that’s not the life I ended up living,” explains Pagan, prison tattoos peeking out from the short sleeves of his jailhouse-issue blue shirt.His film “The Maple Leaf,” made behind bars, is competing for best narrative short film — a category only for currently or formerly incarcerated filmmakers.Pagan, 37, was a teen when he committed his crime, and hopes his new skills directing movies could one day offer “a pipeline to Hollywood, to employment.”Though it did not win, the movie — about a self-help group in which prisoners tackle guilt and shame — won high praise from a jury including director Celine Song (“Past Lives”) and actor Jesse Williams (“Grey’s Anatomy.”)”Right now, I’m just doing the work and rehabilitating myself. Part of the story of ‘The Maple Leaf’ is about guys like me,” he says.- ‘Healing’ -The oldest prison in California, San Quentin was for decades a maximum-security facility that hosted the nation’s biggest death row — and a famous concert by Johnny Cash in 1969.It has become a flagship for California penal reform, and no longer carries out executions.Rehabilitation programs include a media center where prisoners produce a newspaper, podcasts and films. The projects are intended to provide employable skills, as 90 percent of inmates will one day be released.The festival, launched last year, offers inmates a chance to meet mainstream filmmakers from the outside.Founder Cori Thomas, a playwright and screenwriter, had volunteered at the prison for years, and wanted a way to show her Hollywood peers the “exceptional work” being made in San Quentin.”The only way would be for them to come in here to see it,” she realized.After two successful editions, the festival will expand to a women’s prison in 2026.- ‘Warning Signs’ -San Quentin’s film program is also a chance for inmates to confront their often brutal pasts.Miguel Sifuentes, 27 years into a life sentence for an armed robbery in which his accomplice killed a police officer, says creating short film “Warning Signs” was “a transformative healing experience.”He plays an inmate contemplating suicide. Total strangers in prison who watched the film later approached him to open up about their own suicidal thoughts, he says.”It really wasn’t like acting — it was just speaking from a real place of pain,” Sifuentes said.Prison warden Chance Andes told AFP that cathartic activities like filmmaking and events like the festival help “reduce the violence and the tension within the walls.”Inmates who cause fights or otherwise break prison rules temporarily lose their chance to participate. Andes says these lessons resonate after the prisoners are released.”If we send people out without having resolved their trauma and having no skill set, no degree, no schooling, they’re more likely to reoffend and cause more victims,” he says.- ‘Grateful’ -Even rehabilitation-focused prisons like San Quentin remain dangerous places.”We’ve had assaults where nurses have been hurt by patients,” said Kevin Healy, who is a union president and trains staff at San Quentin.”It’s a prison… it comes with the territory.”Overhead circling the courtyard is a narrow walkway, where guards with deadly rifles can appear at the first sign of unrest.But it is a far cry from the terrifying maximum-security prisons where both Pagan and Sifuentes began their sentences, and where Sifuentes nearly died after being stabbed.At least on this sunny festival day, as incarcerated musicians play cheerfully in the courtyard, that violence feels temporarily at bay.”Honestly, I hate to say ‘I’m grateful to be at this prison,’ says Pagan.”But in a sense I am.”