La coopération météo internationale, elle aussi chamboulée par Trump
Pertes de budgets, de données et de partage d’informations: les experts mondiaux en satellites météorologiques, réunis en congrès à Lyon, déplorent l’effet délétère pour la recherche sur le changement climatique de la politique de Donald Trump.”Nous risquons de perdre des preuves qui permettront à la prochaine génération de comprendre le changement climatique”, s’alarme le chercheur coréen Sang Seo Park, de l’institut de sciences et technologie d’Ulsan, lors d’un échange avec l’AFP. Depuis l’entrée en fonction du président républicain, certains sites internet gouvernementaux contenant des données sur la météo et le climat ont été supprimés, et ce spécialiste de l’observation de la qualité de l’air est particulièrement scandalisé par la fermeture d’une page dédiée à la surveillance de l’ozone. “Cela signifie la perte de toutes les données historiques. Et ce n’est qu’un exemple parmi d’autres”, s’indigne le chercheur. “On souffre du manque de communication des Etats-Unis et de la diminution des données” des satellites qui nous sont transmises. Quelque 500 représentants de services météorologiques nationaux, agences spatiales et centres de recherches sont présents depuis lundi à Lyon à l’initiative de l’organisation européenne pour l’exploitation des satellites météorologiques, Eumetsat. Beaucoup partagent la confusion et l’inquiétude de M. Park.L’agence spatiale américaine NASA et l’agence chargée des prévisions météo, de l’analyse du climat et de la conservation des océans NOAA ont récemment annoncé des coupes budgétaires, dont les fonds alloués à un satellite qui mesure les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre.”Le mot climat n’est pas très bienvenu à Washington, aujourd’hui”, regrette Paul Counet, chef de la stratégie et de la communication d’Eumetsat.”Continuer à faire de la prévision météorologique va rester une priorité” aux Etats-Unis, où le gouvernement veut toujours connaître les températures et pluies attendues à court-terme, dit-il.Mais, selon lui, “pour la détection du changement climatique, on voit déjà des impacts” de la politique de Donald Trump, qui veut réduire la taille des agences gouvernementales et sabrer dans les dépenses consacrées à l’environnement.Dans “les équipes américaines, il y a une perte de compétences, une perte de personnel” et “dans les interactions, c’est plus compliqué”, constate-t-il. “On progresse moins rapidement, c’est clair.”- Réécriture -Christophe Maréchal, ingénieur au Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES) en est bien conscient: “si on veut continuer à travailler avec (nos partenaires américains), il faut insister sur les aspects non-climatiques”, le sujet étant devenu “très sensible”.”Tout peut s’arrêter du jour au lendemain”, affirme ce chef de projet français. “On est sur le qui-vive, on sait que les décisions budgétaires arrivent en fin d’année pour les différents projets”, explique-t-il.Pour l’exercice 2026, que le Congrès doit voter avant le 30 septembre, l’administration Trump a proposé de réduire le budget de la NOAA d’environ 25% et de supprimer totalement sa division de recherches.D’ores et déjà, “beaucoup de programmes ont été abandonnés, beaucoup de gens vont être mutés”, confie à l’AFP un chercheur de la NOAA qui a requis l’anonymat de peur de perdre son emploi. “On nous a demandé de supprimer toute référence au changement climatique” de nos demandes de subventions, poursuit-il. “Notre bureau nous a aidés à réécrire tous nos projets pour s’assurer qu’ils aient les meilleures chances possibles d’être financés.”Pour lui “cela a fonctionné” et il a réussi à conserver ses financements, mais ses recherches sont quasiment à l’arrêt, en attendant sa nouvelle équipe de travail après cette restructuration. Paul Counet sent aussi le vent tourner à l’Eumetsat. Pour obtenir des financements européens, il doit développer “de plus en plus un argumentaire sur les applications de sécurité et de défense”. “La guerre en Ukraine nous a appris que pour piloter des drones, il fallait connaître les vents, l’atmosphère…”, explique-t-il. “Aujourd’hui, vous n’envoyez pas un avion bombarder sans une bonne prévision météo.”Le discours a changé en conséquence, dit-il: “il y a dix ans on vendait des satellites météorologiques pour sauver le climat, aujourd’hui on les vend pour sauver l’Ukraine”.
Asian markets mixed ahead of Trump-Xi talks
Asian markets were mixed Friday at the end of a strong week for investors following a US interest rate cut, with attention now turning to a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping due later in the day.Adding to selling pressure were expectations that Japan’s central bank would hike interest rates later this year, despite holding them at its latest meeting.While the Federal Reserve and boss Jerome Powell were not as forthright as hoped on future rate reductions, the mood on trading floors remained upbeat.The US central bank lowered borrowing costs Wednesday for the first time since December after a series of reports pointed to a slowdown in the country’s labour market, which offset stubbornly high inflation.A closely watched gauge of future moves indicated two more this year, but Powell warned decisions would be data-dependent. With that in mind, even figures showing a sharp drop in initial jobless claims for last week did little to dampen expectations that rates will continue to be cut.”The underlying trend remains one of only a gentle drift higher in claims, reinforcing the view that the US labour market is not showing signs of sudden weakness,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.All three main indexes ended Thursday at records, continuing a trend that has characterised markets in recent months, thanks to another surge in tech giants.That came after news that chip titan Nvidia will invest $5 billion in struggling US rival Intel and jointly develop processors for PCs and data centres.Asian traders moved cautiously in the morning, but selling picked up after the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting.Monetary policymakers kept rates on hold but only after a surprise 7-2 vote that indicated two members wanted a hike. That boosted bets on such a move before the end of the year.The move came amid lingering political uncertainty and economic concerns fuelled by US tariffs.The bank also said it would start offloading exchange-traded funds bought as part of its earlier monetary easing campaign that had helped boost equities.Catril said the dissenters were “a strong signal that the BOJ will be hiking once political uncertainty is removed”.Before the announcement, official data showed inflation in the fourth-largest economy slowing to 2.7 percent in August, with rice price rises easing following a sharp spike that rattled the government.Traders are now awaiting a news conference from bank boss Kazuo Ueda due later in the day.Tokyo ended in the red, having enjoyed a strong start to the day. There were also losses in Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei, Mumbai and Jakarta, while Hong Kong was flat.Sydney, Wellington, Bangkok and Manila rose with London, Paris and Frankfurt.Talks between president Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi — their first since June — are due to take place later Friday, with the US president telling reporters they would discuss a deal to change ownership of the hugely popular video-sharing app TikTok.The phone call also comes after high level officials from both sides met in Madrid where they spoke about trade between the economic superpowers, with the deadline for a US tariff pause approaching in November.- Key figures at around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 percent at 45,045.81 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: FLAT at 26,545.10 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,820.09 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,233.69 Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1761 from $1.1785 on ThursdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3485 from $1.3550Dollar/yen: UP at 147.91 yen from 147.97 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.22 pence from 86.96 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $63.29 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $67.27 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 46,142.42 (close)
BoJ holds interest rates but to sell funds in shift from easing policy
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold Friday amid lingering political uncertainty and economic concerns but said it would start offloading funds bought as part of its earlier monetary easing campaign.The announcement came hours after official data showed inflation in the fourth-largest economy slowed to 2.7 percent in August, with rice price rises slowing following a sharp spike that rattled the government.In a widely expected decision the central bank decided against hiking borrowing costs, keeping them at 0.5 percent, but said it would begin reducing its exchange-traded fund and real estate investment trust holdings.The BoJ began buying the funds — in a bid to boost liquidity and reduce the cost of capital for firms, among other things — more than a decade ago as part of its campaign to kickstart the torpid economy and end years of almost non-existent inflation.Officials began hiking rates from below zero in March last year as figures signalled an end to the country’s “lost decades” of stagnation, with inflation surging.However, with worries about the global outlook and US tariffs growing, the bank paused its tightening measures at the start of 2025, with the last increase in January, taking rates to their highest level in 17 years.The yen rose against the dollar but Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index fell around 0.5 percent.In a statement following Friday’s announcement, the BoJ said: “Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors.”Japanese exports to the United States face a 15 percent levy imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, causing huge pain for the nation’s industries, particularly the auto sector.But BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda told a news conference that “although US tariffs are having a negative impact, particularly on the revenues of the manufacturing industry, so far they don’t appear to be affecting the economy as a whole including capital investment, employment and wages”.- Leadership race -The rate decision was carried by seven votes to two, with the dissent described as “a bit of surprise” by Tsuyoshi Ueno of NLI Research Institute.”Governor Ueda has said he wants to see the impact of Trump tariffs, but maybe there is a division in their opinions, as inflation continues,” he told AFP.The move comes as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares for an election for a new leader following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.The government has come under pressure from voters angry about the rising cost of rice and Ishiba’s coalition lost its majority in both chambers. A race for his successor will be decided on October 4. Figures Friday showed core inflation — stripping out food costs –hit 2.7 percent in August.While that was down on July’s 3.1 percent, it is still well above the BoJ’s target of two percent, and analysts have said the bank will likely announce another hike this year or in early 2026.Rice prices had skyrocketed because of supply problems linked to a very hot summer in 2023 and panic-buying after a “megaquake” warning last year, amongst other factors.Abhijit Surya of Capital Economics said the main factor behind the fall in inflation was “a deepening of energy price deflation… due to the resumption of electricity and gas subsidies”.But Taro Kimura, an analyst with Bloomberg Economics, said a pullback in inflation “won’t change the big picture”.”Consumer prices will remain warm enough to keep the Bank of Japan on track to pare stimulus, likely as soon as October,” he added.