Wheat Whipsaws Amid Conflicting Signals on Grain Deal Extension

Wheat fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine gave conflicting signals on whether a key grain-export deal had been extended, and the United Nations said consultations were continuing.

(Bloomberg) — Wheat fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine gave conflicting signals on whether a key grain-export deal had been extended, and the United Nations said consultations were continuing. 

Wheat futures traded in Chicago fell 0.5%, after earlier gaining as much as 0.6%. Traders are watching to see whether the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allows Ukraine to export crops from three ports, will be renewed when it expires later this week.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry said on Tuesday that there’s no update on its position, after Kyiv pushed back on Russia’s apparent offer to extend the landmark grain-export deal by just 60 days on Monday. That followed a Tass report which cited Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin had confirmed a 60-day extension. 

“The meeting with the Russian federation here in Geneva concluded yesterday as agreed, however consultations continue at all levels,” Jens Laerke, a spokesperson at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said at a briefing on Tuesday morning.

A 60-day extension would only be half the length of the previous two terms of the initiative, which was brokered by the UN and Turkey last July and extended in November. The agreement has significantly boosted Ukraine’s crop exports and helped to lower global food prices. Ukraine earlier said it wants the deal to be extended for a year. 

Turkey called on the participants to renew the agreement. 

Vessels are still heading to and from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, data posted by the UN show. Three inbound ships on Monday and four on Sunday cleared inspection to sail to Ukraine under the initiative. Three loaded vessels departed on Monday and at least four more have sailed so far on Tuesday, although they will still need to pass inspection in Turkey, according to the lineups.

Some wheat importers are bulking up on supply ahead of the grain deal’s expiry. Saudi Arabia bought about 1 million tons of wheat in a tender, double the amount it sought, according to results issued Monday. Algeria also stepped in for supply this week and Tunisia is seeking to buy more than 200,000 tons in a tender on Tuesday.

In other grains, corn and soy edged lower. 

–With assistance from Kateryna Choursina and Patrick Sykes.

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