Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s private militia the Wagner Group, callled off his mutiny after his forces advanced to within a few hundred miles of Moscow, defusing the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia in his almost quarter-century rule.
(Bloomberg) — Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s private militia the Wagner Group, callled off his mutiny after his forces advanced to within a few hundred miles of Moscow, defusing the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia in his almost quarter-century rule.
Prigozhin’s forces had faced little resistance Saturday as they advanced from southern Russia toward the capital after the mercenary chief vowed to punish Russian military leaders, saying Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had orchestrated a missile attack that killed “huge” numbers of his fighters.
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Putin denounced the rebellion in a televised address on Saturday and promised harsh punishment for those involved, who he accused of treason. Hours later, Prigozhin halted the dramatic advance, after reaching a deal to end the uprising. Putin guaranteed that Prigozhin would be allowed to leave for neighboring Belarus and authorities would drop criminal mutiny charges against him and his fighters.
Here’s what you need to know about the Wagner Group, its role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What is the Wagner Group?
Founded by Prigozhin in 2014, Wagner at its peak had about 50,000 mercenary recruits — many of them ex-prisoners — fighting in Ukraine. The US designated the group as a transnational criminal organization earlier this year, and Wagner has been sanctioned by Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK and the European Union. The group has operated for years on battlefields in the Middle East and Africa, where it’s been accused of committing widespread human rights abuses.
Wagner has murky legal status, and mercenaries are technically illegal in Russia. The group operates independently of the nation’s official armed forces, and recently rebuffed Moscow’s demands that its recruits sign formal contracts with the military.
Who is Prigozhin and what’s his relationship to Putin?
Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, is a Russian businessman and ex-convict who’s been called “Putin’s chef” due to his catering companies’ contracts with Kremlin and longstanding ties with the president. American authorities have said he controlled a troll farm known as the Internet Research Agency that interfered in the 2016 US presidential election. In 2022, Prigozhin confirmed he created Wagner after years of denying any connection to the group.
Long considered one of Putin’s right-hand men, Prigozhin has grown increasingly acrimonious toward the Russian president’s military leadership amid mounting deaths of Wagner recruits. Prigozhin for months accused the defense ministry of failing to adequately support his forces, often in provocative videos published on social media. In May, he threatened to pull his troops out of the operation if they didn’t get supplies – particularly ammunition – but later backed down.
Why is Wagner involved in Putin’s invasion?
Putin has appreciated Wagner’s help. As recently as this month, the president acknowledged that Russian forces fighting in Ukraine lack sufficient advanced weapons despite a tripling of arms output. Russia has suffered heavy losses of personnel, many of whom are barely trained and often poorly armed, although exact casualty numbers for the 16-month-long conflict are unclear. Wagner’s forces have been instrumental in Russia’s ground offensive; the group in May took control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after more than 220 days of fighting.
How has Russia responded?
After the advance toward Moscow was halted, the Russian president personally guaranteed that Prigozhin would be allowed to leave for neighboring Belarus and authorities would drop criminal mutiny charges against him and his fighters, according to the Kremlin.
What is Wagner’s next move?
There was no immediate confirmation from Prigozhin about the deal announced by Belarus and the Kremlin. There were also no immediate signs of him heading to Belarus.
Who is Lukashenko and what’s his relationship with Putin?
Longtime President Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Belarus to be used as a staging ground in Russia’s war against Ukraine, while avoiding sending his own troops to take part in the conflict.
The tight embrace is payback after Russian President Putin bankrolled his government for many years and came to Lukashenko’s aid following a disputed 2020 election that sparked a popular uprising, repression and sanctions.
Putin further increased Lukashenko influence by announcing the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus
What is the response from abroad?
So far, mainly watching and waiting. Leaders across the world said it was an internal Russian issue that’s being carefully monitored. US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the situation and talked about the events with his allies including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the latest events were a sign of “full-scale weakness” in Russia.
What does this mean for Putin?
The feud has been extremely politically damaging to Putin’s regime, said Matthew Sussex, adjunct associate professor at Griffith University in Australia.
Right now though it’s unclear where it leaves both Prigozhin and Putin as the spat showed a very public display of discontent with the leadership. It also raises big questions about the future for Russia’s war in Ukraine and the strength of Putin as he eyes re-election in 2024.
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