New Zealand’s central bank will need to raise the Official Cash Rate to 6% this year to be assured of taming inflation, according to Westpac Banking Corp.
(Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s central bank will need to raise the Official Cash Rate to 6% this year to be assured of taming inflation, according to Westpac Banking Corp.
Surging migrant arrivals will mean New Zealand’s economy won’t slow as much as previously expected and inflation will remain stubbornly high, Westpac’s Auckland-based economics team led by Kelly Eckhold said in an economic overview published Tuesday.
“More insurance is required to be sure of bringing inflation back into the target range,” the report said. “We see the OCR rising further to 6% by August and remaining there until mid-2024.”
The Reserve Bank reviews monetary policy again next week and most economists forecast a quarter-percentage point rise in the cash rate to 5.5% and a pause thereafter. Previously, Westpac also expected the OCR would peak at 5.5%, but the surge in inward migration has prompted it to revise its forecasts.
It expects a net inflow of 100,000 people in 2023, adding almost 2% to the population.
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“It seems clear that New Zealand will see strong population growth that will add significantly to both the demand and supply of resources,” Westpac said. “This marginal demand is likely to translate to more persistent inflation pressures and will delay the return of inflation to target.”
The RBNZ has increased the OCR by 5 percentage points since late 2021 to drive inflation back into the 1-3% range it targets. The annual inflation rate slowed to 6.7% in the March quarter.
The gauge won’t return to the RBNZ’s target band until the second half of 2024, Westpac predicts.
It estimates the economy had a small contraction in the first three months of the year, meaning it was technically in recession after also shrinking in the final quarter of 2022. However, it forecasts growth in all three remaining quarters this year.
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