Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is on a quest for support as war in the east rages, but has so far returned empty-handed from trips abroad while anxiety mounts at home.Tshisekedi recently visited Angola and attended a security conference in Munich without making a clear diplomatic breakthrough, after Rwanda-backed M23 fighters seized control of two major eastern cities in the Democratic Republic of Congo.It follows a succession of setbacks the M23 has inflicted on the Congolese army in the DRC’s mineral-rich east, for more than three decades riven by conflict and fighting between rival armed groups.With Rwanda’s help — though Kigali denies it — the M23 has overwhelmed the Congolese army on the battlefield, in what analysts say is a political embarrassment for the DRC’s president.”The inability to reverse the military dynamic raises questions about the room for manoeuvre of the supreme commander of the army (Tshisekedi),” said Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at the Ebuteli research institute in the DRC’s capital Kinshasa. “The challenge for the president is now to prevent this crisis from becoming a tipping point that threatens the stability of his mandate,” he added.- ‘End-of-rule atmosphere’ -According to a source close to the presidency, there is palpable concern in Tshisekedi’s office, where there is “an end-of-rule atmosphere”. In the capital Kinshasa, many employees of international organisations have already left the country for fear of what may happen next.Those close to Tshisekedi have in recent days reiterated that he was “elected for five years” and warned against a “coup” or the “destabilisation of institutions”. The secretary general of the presidential party — the UDPS or Union for Democracy and Social Progress — has declared that “Felix Tshisekedi will never resign”.Tshisekedi was elected in December 2023 for a second term with more than 70 percent of the official vote count.The coalition of parties supporting him also holds a majority in the National Assembly. But when he came to power following the 2018 presidential election, the electoral commission flagged irregularities that, according to observers, undermined his legitimacy from the start.The electoral commission’s president at the time was Corneille Nangaa — head of a coalition of groups including the M23.- ‘Coup against the republic’-Rwanda denies direct military involvement in the conflict, but UN experts last year said that it had some 4,000 troops operating alongside the M23 and had de facto control over the group. So far, Tshisekedi’s overtures to the international community calling for sanctions on Rwanda for supporting the M23 have been unfruitful.He went to Luanda on Tuesday to meet Angola’s President Joao Lourenco, who had led the African Union’s stop-start mediations to resolve the crisis in the east.The two men spoke during “a diplomatic meeting in the context of recent events on the ground”, which raise “the question of measures to be taken”, according to Angola.Tshisekedi also went to a security conference in Munich, Germany last weekwhere he called for Rwanda to be “put on the blacklist”.He also accused his predecessor and now opponent Joseph Kabila — who is said to have left the DRC since leaving office — of being in league with Rwanda to bring about “this coup against the republic”.Neither the United Nations or European Union have responded to calls by the DRC to impose sanctions on Kigali.Rwandan President Paul Kagame has already stated in the press that “no-one will intimidate (him) with threats of sanctions”.Although the British foreign office has summoned Rwanda’s top diplomat in London, there have been few clear signals that there is support for Tshisekedi in his efforts to wage a diplomatic war against Kigali.The United Nations, European Union and African Union now fear that the conflict could flare-up into a regional war.Paul-Simon Handy, the regional director for east Africa at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), said “the strengthening of the Congolese state” and “a state capable of protecting its borders” is essential to ensure stability in the Great Lakes region.Â
