Russia is likely to downgrade its ambitions in Ukraine for the time being to hanging onto territory seized after the start of its invasion, even as it enjoys deepening economic and defense support from China, US intelligence chiefs told a Senate committee.
(Bloomberg) — Russia is likely to downgrade its ambitions in Ukraine for the time being to hanging onto territory seized after the start of its invasion, even as it enjoys deepening economic and defense support from China, US intelligence chiefs told a Senate committee.
President Vladimir Putin would need to find outside suppliers of ammunition and impose a mandatory national mobilization if Russia is to advance in its year-old invasion, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee Wednesday in presenting the annual assessment of worldwide threats.
“We do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains,” Haines said. “Putin is likely better understanding the limits of what his military is capable of achieving and appears to be focused on more limited military objectives for now.”
That assessment was part of a broader outline of the threats the US faces as spelled out in a report released as the hearing began. Although Russia got attention, China was the main focus, called out for its control of global supply chains, its dominance of critical minerals and its control over the video-sharing app TikTok, which Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida described as “one of the most valuable surveillance tools on the planet.”
The report predicted China will keep up its defense and economic cooperation with Russia despite international condemnation of the Ukraine invasion and pressure from the US and its Western allies. At the same time, it found China is advancing its nuclear-weapons capability and building out its ability to destroy enemy satellites as part of a broader push to strengthen its military.
“The Chinese are advancing very very rapidly in every war-fighting domain that exists,” said Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Haines offered a downbeat appraisal of a speech by President Xi Jinping on Monday in which he said China is grappling with “comprehensive containment and suppression by western countries.”
“Xi’s speech was the most public and direct criticism that we’ve seen from him,” Haines said. She said it “reflects growing pessimism in Beijing about China’s relationship” with the US and worries about its economic development.
US intelligence officials sometimes offer blunt and politically sensitive assessments at the worldwide threats hearings, and there was at least one point of contention. The FBI has assessed that the Covid-19 pandemic most likely originated from a lab leak in the Chinese city of Wuhan, but intelligence agencies say the other possibility is that the coronavirus jumped from animals to people.
Read the ‘Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community’
Otherwise the officials presented a united front and there was little rancor. Officials under President Donald Trump declined to participate in public sessions in 2020 after Trump savaged them as “extremely passive and naive” for their 2019 testimony that Iran was in compliance with an international nuclear accord and that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal.
The 39-page assessment, dated Feb. 6 but released on Wednesday, highlights everything from military threats to the dangers of cyber attacks, climate risks and organized crime. But it makes clear that even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenges the US, the primary threat is China, which “has the capability to directly attempt to alter the rules-based global order in every realm and across multiple regions.”
“Despite global backlash over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China will maintain its diplomatic, defense, economic, and technology cooperation with Russia to continue trying to challenge the United States, even as it will limit public support,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in the report.
China has resisted US efforts to make it comply with western sanctions against Russia, deepening its alliance with Moscow. Biden administration officials say China is even considering whether to supply military assistance for the invasion.
FBI Director Christopher Wray testified that TikTok, which is owned by Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd., could be used to control data and software on millions of devices in the US and drive narratives to divide Americans while even intelligence agencies might miss manipulation by the app.
Read More: White House Endorses TikTok Bill, Calls for Swift Passage
“We’re not sure that we would see many of the outward signs of it happening if it was happening,” Wray said. “This is a tool that is ultimately within the control of the Chinese government and to me it screams out with national security concerns.”
–With assistance from Chris Strohm and Daniel Flatley.
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