Polls opened Tuesday for a US election once seen as a Republican formality that has instead turned into a test of Donald Trump’s popularity — and a warning shot for a party already rattled by its razor-thin majority in Congress.Trump is not on the ballot in the state’s 7th House District, but his presence is unmistakable in a race unfolding on turf he won by 22 points in 2024 — making it one of the safest Republican seats.Republicans still expect to hold the district, but the fear of a narrow win hangs over what should have been a sleepy contest, with polls showing the race uncomfortably close.A Democratic upset — or even a narrow Republican win — would jolt Washington and deepen Republican fears of losing the House in 2026. With only a two-vote cushion on the floor, party lawmakers say the consequences of voter apathy could be dire.”Special elections are strange animals and anything can happen. And when you’re in a deep-red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative, will win,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told a news conference in Washington.”You cannot assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everybody to go out there and make that happen. The people are fired up.”The Republican cold sweats come amid a run of Democratic momentum. Just weeks ago, the party swept major races in Virginia and New Jersey and won the New York mayoralty, a string of victories widely interpreted as a rebuke to Trump’s return to power.The party has noticed — and so has Trump.The president held a tele-rally Monday alongside Johnson, who campaigned throughout the day with the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps. “HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music,” Trump posted soon after polls opened.Van Epps, a West Point graduate and retired special-operations helicopter pilot, is running as an unwavering Trump loyalist focused on law-and-order, border security and low taxes. – Steep drop -He faces Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn, a former social worker who has pushed progressive legislation on grocery-tax relief, rural health care, abortion access and marijuana reform.Republicans have zeroed in on Behn’s social-media posts from the 2020 racial-justice protests, in which she amplified “defund the police” slogans and shared a message appearing to justify burning down a police station. Tennessee’s 7th District — stretching from Nashville’s Music Row through affluent suburbs and down to conservative rural counties — normally delivers Republicans around 60 percent of the vote. But the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48 percent to Behn’s 46 percent, well within the margin of error. Early polls in October had Van Epps up by as many as eight points, but also flagged elevated Democratic enthusiasm.Republican insiders now predict a five-point Van Epps win — a steep drop from former congressman Mark Green’s 2024 landslide — and concede that anything tighter would be alarming. A loss, however unlikely, would electrify Democrats and force Republican strategists to rethink their entire 2026 defense map.Early voting is expected to have favored Behn thanks to energized younger voters and Nashville turnout, while election-day voting should lean more Republican, especially in rural counties. Both parties have flooded the district with cash and operatives, with Van Epps and his outside backers spending $3.5 million on ads, according to Punchbowl News, while Democratic groups invested $2.4 million.
Polls opened Tuesday for a US election once seen as a Republican formality that has instead turned into a test of Donald Trump’s popularity — and a warning shot for a party already rattled by its razor-thin majority in Congress.Trump is not on the ballot in the state’s 7th House District, but his presence is unmistakable in a race unfolding on turf he won by 22 points in 2024 — making it one of the safest Republican seats.Republicans still expect to hold the district, but the fear of a narrow win hangs over what should have been a sleepy contest, with polls showing the race uncomfortably close.A Democratic upset — or even a narrow Republican win — would jolt Washington and deepen Republican fears of losing the House in 2026. With only a two-vote cushion on the floor, party lawmakers say the consequences of voter apathy could be dire.”Special elections are strange animals and anything can happen. And when you’re in a deep-red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative, will win,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told a news conference in Washington.”You cannot assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everybody to go out there and make that happen. The people are fired up.”The Republican cold sweats come amid a run of Democratic momentum. Just weeks ago, the party swept major races in Virginia and New Jersey and won the New York mayoralty, a string of victories widely interpreted as a rebuke to Trump’s return to power.The party has noticed — and so has Trump.The president held a tele-rally Monday alongside Johnson, who campaigned throughout the day with the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps. “HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music,” Trump posted soon after polls opened.Van Epps, a West Point graduate and retired special-operations helicopter pilot, is running as an unwavering Trump loyalist focused on law-and-order, border security and low taxes. – Steep drop -He faces Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn, a former social worker who has pushed progressive legislation on grocery-tax relief, rural health care, abortion access and marijuana reform.Republicans have zeroed in on Behn’s social-media posts from the 2020 racial-justice protests, in which she amplified “defund the police” slogans and shared a message appearing to justify burning down a police station. Tennessee’s 7th District — stretching from Nashville’s Music Row through affluent suburbs and down to conservative rural counties — normally delivers Republicans around 60 percent of the vote. But the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48 percent to Behn’s 46 percent, well within the margin of error. Early polls in October had Van Epps up by as many as eight points, but also flagged elevated Democratic enthusiasm.Republican insiders now predict a five-point Van Epps win — a steep drop from former congressman Mark Green’s 2024 landslide — and concede that anything tighter would be alarming. A loss, however unlikely, would electrify Democrats and force Republican strategists to rethink their entire 2026 defense map.Early voting is expected to have favored Behn thanks to energized younger voters and Nashville turnout, while election-day voting should lean more Republican, especially in rural counties. Both parties have flooded the district with cash and operatives, with Van Epps and his outside backers spending $3.5 million on ads, according to Punchbowl News, while Democratic groups invested $2.4 million.
