Ukraine Latest: Russia Continues Efforts to Encircle Bakhmut

Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops continue their bid to cut off Bakhmut. The comment comes a day after Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, released a video saying his units had “practically surrounded” the eastern Ukrainian city.

(Bloomberg) —

Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops continue their bid to cut off Bakhmut. The comment comes a day after Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, released a video saying his units had “practically surrounded” the eastern Ukrainian city. 

The death toll from Thursday’s Russian missile attack on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia rose to 10. US Attorney General Merrick Garland made an unannounced visit to Lviv on Friday to discuss criminal investigations regarding Russia’s actions during the war with Ukrainian and European officials.

Russia’s wheat exports are soaring as buyers load up on its  bumper crop — even as the safe-transit deal for Ukrainian grain shipments from the Black Sea is up for renewal. 

Key Developments

  • Biden Lauds Germany’s Military Aid to Ukraine in Scholz Meeting
  • US Announces $400 Million in Ammunition and Supplies for Ukraine
  • Russia Wheat Exports Nearly Double What They Were Before War
  • Putin Orders New Rules for Defense Firms in Case of Martial Law
  • Square Sued by NYC Diamond Buyer for Blocking Russian Bank Link

(All times CET)

Kyiv Eyeing ‘Controlled Fighting Withdrawal’ from Bakhmut, ISW Says (8:30 a.m.)

Ukrainian forces “appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut,” said US-based military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War. 

The “preemptive destruction of bridges” on Friday suggests Ukraine is trying to inhibit Russian movement in eastern Bakhmut and limit potential Kremlin forces’ westward progress out of the city, ISW said in an update. 

“If the Ukrainian military command deems it necessary to withdraw from Bakhmut it will likely conduct a limited and controlled withdrawal from particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut.” 

Russia Pursues Efforts to Surround Bakhmut, Ukraine Says (7:10 a.m.)

The Ukrainian armed forces’ general staff said that Russian troops continue attempts to cut off the city of Bakhmut, the center of bloody fighting for much of the past year. 

Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian soldiers fought back numerous attacks in the Bakhmut area and in other locations in Donetsk, it said on its Facebook page on Saturday.

Ukraine’s ground forces commander visited Bakhmut troops Friday for the second time in a week. Kyiv denied a claim by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that only one road out of the city is still open. The UK defense ministry said Ukrainian resupply routes out of Bakhmut “are increasingly limited.” 

Toll Now 10 From Thursday’s Zaporizhzhia Missile Attack (6 a.m.)

Ukraine’s emergency services said Saturday that the death toll from a Russian missile attack on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 10, including a child. 

Rescue and recovery efforts continue at the site, which was struck by an S-300 surface-to-air missile early on Thursday. So far, 333 tons of construction debris have been removed, and counselors are on site to provide assistance to dozens of residents and relatives of the victims. 

Garland Says US Has Identified War Crimes Suspects (1 a.m.)

Garland and the other prosecutors took part in the United for Justice Conference in Lviv, according to a Justice Department statement released Friday evening.

The attorney general said the US had opened investigations into war crimes “that may violate US law.” 

“Although we are still building our cases, interviewing witnesses, and collecting evidence, we have already identified specific suspects,” Garland added in the statement. Zelenskiy’s office issued a statement saying Garland was joined by top prosecutors from Spain, the UK and other European nations, as well as senior officials from the International Criminal Court and the United Nations.

Biden Praises Germany’s Assistance in Meeting With Scholz (1 a.m.)

President Joe Biden lauded Germany’s commitment to providing military and other support to Ukraine as he met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House. “Ammunition, artillery, armored tanks, air defense systems — We’ve been together throughout this,” Biden said. 

Both leaders are pushing to produce arms and ammunition for Ukraine as Russia’s invasion enters its second year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged allies to address shortages of ammunition, particularly for tanks and air defense weapons supplied by Germany.

US Announces $400 Million in Ammunition and Supplies for Ukraine (8 p.m.)

The Biden administration announced a new $400 million military assistance package for Ukraine, including ammunition for its howitzers and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, the US said Friday.

The assistance was primarily aimed at replacing the vast quantity of shells and missiles that Ukraine has fired as it seeks to repel Russian forces, and included no new weapons systems. Among the items were 155mm artillery rounds, 25mm ammunition and demolition munitions, plus armored-vehicle-launched bridges and spare parts, the Pentagon said.  

Ukraine’s Ground Commander Visits Bakhmut Troops (3:33 p.m.)

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander in charge of Ukraine’s ground forces, visited troops defending Bakhmut, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Fighting continues inside and around the city with Russia massing troops seeking to take it over, the ministry said on Telegram.

Addressing Ukraine’s president in a video released on Friday, Prigozhin said that “the pincers are closing” around Kyiv’s troops still in the area, with only one road out of the city still open. Controlling Bakhmut is thought to be a stepping stone for Russian forces to advance further west and north. 

The video was “disinformation” aimed at sowing panic and filmed near a village that Russian forces claimed to have seized Feb. 20, the Ukrainian government’s center of strategic communications said on Telegram. 

Russia Wheat Exports Nearly Double What They Were Before War (2 p.m.)

Russia’s grain exports are booming as buyers load up on its attractive bumper supplies. The boom shows shippers have overcome some of the financing and insurance problems fueled by sanctions on Russia. 

The country’s shipments of wheat — its main crop — almost doubled in January and February from a year earlier, Logistic OS data show. Buyers shunned cargoes earlier in the season when prices weren’t as appealing, but are now returning as last year’s massive harvest helps Russian grain to rank among the cheapest globally. 

Putin Holds Security Council Meeting (2:05 p.m.)

Putin held a regular meeting with top officials, including the head of the Interior Ministry, a day after denouncing an attack in a village near Russia’s border with Ukraine as “a terrorist act.” 

Russia said Ukrainian fighters crossed the border in the Bryansk region, an allegation officials in Kyiv dismissed as a set-up aimed at building public support for Putin’s invasion.

Putin didn’t address the Bryansk incident at the meeting, according to a readout cited by ISW, but outlined new, limited support measures for Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine. 

Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenue Plunged 46% in February (1:31 p.m.)

Russia’s oil and gas revenue fell last month to 521 billion rubles ($6.91 billion), according to the Finance Ministry. Proceeds from crude oil and petroleum products — which accounted for over two thirds of energy tax revenue last month — fell by 48% from a year ago to 361 billion rubles, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The drop comes after the price of Urals crude — Russia’s key export blend — trades at a significant discount to Brent. The EU banned most seaborne imports of crude and petroleum products from Russia, and the Group of Seven industrialized nations imposed a price cap.

Putin Orders New Rules for Defense Firms (1:17 p.m.)

Putin signed a decree laying out rules for tightening control of companies that fail to fulfill defense contracts in the event martial law is imposed.

Under the measure, the state would get the power to take over firms that fail to meet their obligations under military contracts, suspending the rights of owners and shareholders. The Kremlin has imposed martial law in the regions of Ukraine its forces currently occupy, except Crimea. Officials have said there are no plans at present to enact it more widely.

Read more Putin Orders New Rules for Defense Firms in Case of Martial Law

Belarus Sentences Nobel Peace Prize Winner to 10 Years (11:35 a.m.)

Ales Bialiatski, 60, who won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize while in a Belarusian prison, was sentenced to 10 years as his country’s authoritarian government continues to crack down on opponents.  

Two other members of the Bialiatski-led Viasna Human Rights center were sentenced to nine and seven years each, according to state-owned news agency Belta.  

All were convicted on charges of financing anti-government protests and “smuggling cash” in an organized group. They have denied wrongdoing.

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) 

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