Ukraine Latest: EU to Back Military Aid, Help Ammunition Firms

European Union leaders will sign off on plans to send Kyiv 1 million rounds of ammunition within 12 months during their meeting in Brussels.

(Bloomberg) — European Union leaders will sign off on plans to send Kyiv 1 million rounds of ammunition within 12 months during their meeting in Brussels. 

Ukraine’s top commander hinted at a counteroffensive “very soon,” a day after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited front-line positions near the besieged city of Bakhmut, a focus of fierce battles with the Russian army in recent months.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the powerful founder of mercenary group Wagner, is preparing to scale back his private army’s operations in Ukraine after Russian military chiefs cut key supplies of men and ammunition, people familiar with the matter said.

Key Developments

  • Putin’s Mercenary Prigozhin Shifts Focus After Ukraine Setbacks
  • US Fears a War-Weary World May Embrace China’s Ukraine Peace Bid
  • Blinken Cites ‘Acute’ Threat by Russia, Long-Term by China

(All times CET)

China Seen as Challenge in Relations to Russia to European Leaders (11:31 a.m.)

China is in the driving seat in its relationship with Russia, Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told reporters, adding that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow was “a little bit of an eye-opener for us in Europe.”

Speaking ahead of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels, Karins said while some might have hoped China could assume the role of a broker in the war in Ukraine, “China is not doing this at all — it’s moving overtly on the side of Russia and this is a big challenge for all of us.”

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas also told reporters Xi and Putin “are great friends, we can see,” stressing it was important that China respects the international rules-based order and warning that helping the aggressor would defy that.

Most Ukrainians Optimistic About Economy Despite War (11:26 a.m.)

Most Ukrainians are largely optimistic about the economic future of their country, unlike before the war when pessimism prevailed, a poll by the Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies in Kyiv showed.

A total of 52% of respondents expect positive economic changes in the next two to three years, while only 11% expect the economy to deteriorate, according to Andriy Bychenko, the head of sociological research at Razumkov.

About half of respondents said their incomes declined over the past year. A full 37% of Ukrainians have had at least one relative or friend killed or wounded, according to the poll.

EU Eyes New Funds of Up to €500 Million to Help Ammunition Firms (11:05 a.m.)

The EU plans to spend between €300 million ($327 million) and €500 million to support ammunition producers through the bloc’s budget, according to European Commissioner Thierry Breton.

The funds would come on top of the €2 billion agreed by foreign and defense ministers earlier this week as the EU aims to provide Ukraine with ammunition over the next year.

Breton, the internal market commissioner, acknowledged in an interview a possible bottleneck in gunpowder production. “We have that on our radar, we’ve already started to work on this,” Breton said, adding that some countries are already candidates to build new capacities.

EU Leaders to Back Military Aid for Ukraine (8:21 a.m.)

The European Union’s military support for Ukraine will feature among the key topics of discussion when the bloc’s leaders gather in Brussels. 

They will also discuss unlocking another €3.5 billion for the European Peace Facility, which has financed countries’ arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Commander Hints at Counteroffensive ‘Very Soon’ (7:45 a.m.)

Russian Wagner mercenaries are running out of steam near Bakhmut amid heavy losses, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander in charge of Ukraine’s ground forces, said on Telegram.

“Very soon we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we once did near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupyansk,” he said.

Those locations have seen the Ukrainian military successfully push Russian troops away. According to Syrskyi, Wagner Group operatives are the main force trying to capture Bakhmut.

Putin’s Mercenary Prigozhin Shifts Focus After Ukraine Setbacks (6 a.m.)

Seen as an increasing threat by the security and political establishment, Prigozhin is struggling with a manpower and ammunition shortage in Ukraine after he was barred from recruiting from prisons, his primary source of recruits, and deprived of supplies. 

Wagner troops so far have failed to take their main target – the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut – despite months of trying and staggering losses. Now, Prigozhin is planning to shift the focus back to Africa, people familiar with the issue said. The shift is a sudden turn in fortunes for Prigozhin, a longtime Putin ally who catapulted himself to prominence as the tough-guy alternative to Russia’s faltering military in Ukraine.

US Wary of Fallout From China’s Peace Overture (5:30 a.m.)

President Xi Jinping’s meetings in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin put the Joe Biden administration in an uncomfortable position: on the sidelines as two adversaries discuss a Ukraine peace proposal that the US has deemed unacceptable.

US officials have publicly expressed deep skepticism about the Chinese idea, saying its call for a cease-fire would reward Moscow’s invasion by cementing its territorial gains. Privately, though, the meetings and the proposal have provoked a sense of unease within the administration, leading in turn to questions about the broader US approach to the two countries.

According to one administration official, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations, the US is worried about being backed into a corner over the Chinese proposal. Regardless of the US reservations, dismissing it outright could let China argue to other nations that are weary of the war — and of the economic damage it’s wreaking — that Washington isn’t interested in peace. 

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