Turkey’s tightened grip over financial markets has put Istanbul’s 15th-century Grand Bazaar back at the center of the nation’s commercial activity, as one of history’s first shopping malls becomes a refuge for modern currency traders seeking to escape the reach of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
(Bloomberg) — Turkey’s tightened grip over financial markets has put Istanbul’s 15th-century Grand Bazaar back at the center of the nation’s commercial activity, as one of history’s first shopping malls becomes a refuge for modern currency traders seeking to escape the reach of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
The shift has made the covered maze of antique shops, jewelry boutiques, trinket-selling stalls and leather dealers home, also, to a new parallel exchange rate for the Turkish lira. As restrictions on local banks intensify in the weeks left before a high-stakes election, that parallel rate has gotten more entrenched.
“Whatever you do, don’t hold Turkish liras,” said a veteran gold and currency trader at the bazaar, who like others requested anonymity to avoid possible repercussions for speaking freely about economic troubles. “Even buying feta cheese is a better investment.”
Read more: Turkey’s Central Bank Pressures Lenders to Slow Dollar Purchases
The micromanagement of the formal exchange market has led lenders to cede more sales of dollars to the bazaar and its hundreds of exchange bureaus. In the narrow arched alleyways where shopkeepers have plied their trade for more than half a millennium, Erdogan’s last-ditch efforts to smother bets against the lira don’t have the same bite.
Corporate Demand
Foreign-currency transactions at the bazaar are legal and largely unregistered, making it difficult to estimate daily turnover. But exchange bureaus say business is booming, mostly due to corporate clients.
Massive four-wheeled safe boxes make their way through the Grand Bazaar accompanied by security guards, carrying what tenants say are dollars for major firms including state-run energy importer BOTAS, the market’s biggest buyer of foreign exchange. Traders say companies’ demand for hard currency is what’s driving up bid prices. Botas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
The opportunity to buy and sell dollars outside restrictions placed on the banks comes at a price. The greenback is available at the Grand Bazaar at a more than 5% premium to the interbank rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As of 12:30pm in Istanbul on Wednesday, the lira was trading at 20.4000 per dollar at the bazaar, compared to the official rate of 19.4082.
Long viewed by Turks as a barometer of national economic health, the lira has been hobbled by years of unconventional policies championed by Erdogan, Turkey’s longest-serving ruler. It’s increasingly vulnerable now that citizens are set to decide whether or not he’ll run the country for the next five years.
Volatility Rises
Erdogan’s main rival for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is backed by a six-party opposition bloc that promises a return to economic orthodoxy. No matter who wins, traders are bracing for a harrowing period ahead.
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One-month implied volatility on the lira has surged to the highest in the world, a reflection of options traders buying protection against the possibility of wild swings around the May 14 vote.
The spread in the dollar-lira pair at the bazaar versus the banks has been growing for much of this year as the central bank stepped up measures to keep the lira under control before the vote. But the divergence has taken off recently after policymakers verbally requested that lenders limit their dollar purchases, a decision that could eventually restrict foreign-exchange sales.
Even outside the bazaar, the Turkish currency’s slow-motion depreciation has started to gather pace. The frequency of brief gyrations in the lira — especially in early trading hours — has picked up, suggesting authorities are having a harder time mitigating demand for dollars.
“There’s a wide expectation that the lira will weaken sharply after the elections,” said another Grand Bazaar gold and foreign-exchange trader. “Coupled with the central bank regulations, which bar purchasing dollars, this has caused rising demand in the spot market here.”
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