The British prime minister has made stopping small boats crossing the English Channel one of his five priorities. But members of his own party worry he’ll fail.
(Bloomberg) —
Rishi Sunak’s plan to tackle illegal migration may be an unworkable gamble, members of his government say.
The British prime minister announced legislation on Tuesday to put a legal duty on the government to deport migrants who arrive on small boats, as well as banning them from ever seeking citizenship. On Friday, he struck a deal with French President Emmanuel Macron for Britain to pay France hundreds of millions of pounds more to help the country police its north coast.
But ministers and officials question the prime minister’s political strategy, warning he has staked his premiership on a promise to stop migrants crossing the English Channel that’s likely to backfire. And while Downing Street advisers were privately delighted by how the bill landed domestically with right-wing newspapers, a huge row stemming from tweeted criticisms of the policy by sports presenter Gary Lineker is now front-page news.The BBC said it suspended Lineker from his Match of the Day program for breaching corporation guidelines in comparing the government’s measures to those of Germany in the 1930s. But in axing one of the nation’s biggest names in television from one of its most-watched shows, the BBC has inadvertently triggered a debate on free speech and made Lineker a lightning rod for an increasing divisive political issue.The ruling Conservatives have a lot at stake for its immigration policy to succeed in a general election that Sunak must call in less than two years, with his party trailing Labour by more than 20 points in the polls. He’s made stopping the small boats one of five priorities that voters should judge him on, and YouGov surveys show it’s a top-three issue for the electorate, after the economy and health care.
The bill is a response to more than 45,000 people crossing the Channel in boats in 2022, and the failure of successive Tory governments to reduce the numbers and process a backlog of asylum claims.
But the European Union has warned the measures could violate international law, and the UK government itself concedes it may be in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights.
Ahead of a parliamentary debate on the bill on Monday, Sunak’s team is confident it has identified an issue that could dent Labour’s polling lead.
Even so, the policy faces internal opposition on multiple fronts, Conservative ministers, Home Office officials, government aides and Tory backbenchers said, asking not to be named discussing confidential conversations. They spoke before Friday’s announcement by Sunak and Macron.
Delivering on the promises will be hard. One cabinet minister said few in government believe the legislation will help Sunak keep his pledge to end Channel crossings. They suggested the true aim of the bill was tactical: to exploit a political divide, allowing the Tories to paint Labour as soft on border controls.
The minister said Downing Street aides see it as a win-win strategy. If the policy works, voters will credit the government. If it doesn’t, the Conservatives can blame “lefty lawyers” — a phrase used Wednesday by Sunak to describe opposition leader Keir Starmer.
But Tory members of Parliament remain concerned that if the numbers don’t come down, the government’s failings will be on display, inviting a challenge from the more right-wing Reform Party.
There are also real doubts among ministers and even Home Office officials about the practicalities.
One official said it’s unclear how deportation flights of a few hundred migrants per week would clear a backlog of tens of thousands. Another said the government will inevitably face legal challenges. The bill is also likely to meet opposition in the House of Lords, potentially further delaying earlier plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
Home Secretary Suella Braverman privately lobbied Downing Street that the law needed to be stronger and revoke sections of the Human Rights Act that make it illegal for the government to act contrary to the ECHR, several people familiar with the discussions said. No. 10 resisted. A spokesperson for Braverman declined to comment.
The UK played a lead role in founding the ECHR in the 1950s, but its rules on migrants, which make it illegal to turn away an individual if it puts them at risk of inhumane treatment, have become a focus of irritation among the Tory right, who see it as an obstacle to removing illegal migrants.
There are questions too about what represents success. One official said they would need to show a significant reduction in Channel crossings this year, such as halving last year’s figure. But Braverman has forecast 80,000 could arrive in 2023.
A Home Office official said if the government could carry out a single successful Rwanda deportation flight this year it would be a major deterrent for further crossings. Yet other people in the department say flights may not be possible until 2024.
Meanwhile right-wing Tories led by backbenchers including former Home Secretary Priti Patel, Simon Clarke and Jonathan Gullis, are debating amendments to make the bill tougher on the ECHR. They are also upset Sunak is handing more money to France while Macron refuses to sign an “returns” agreement for undocumented migrants.
Centrist Conservatives including former Prime Minister Theresa May and former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland have their own concerns, and are in talks about the bill’s provisions on modern slavery and migrants’ right to work. Sunak met with May in recent weeks to discuss her concerns, a person briefed on the discussions said.
For many Tories, the biggest unknown is what Sunak will do if the law doesn’t work. Some in Downing Street say the nuclear option is to fight the next election pledging to leave the ECHR, which, one Tory insider said, would prove even more problematic than Brexit.
Others in government suspect that would be a step too far for a prime minister who is seeking to repair relations with European leaders. Moreover, officials think US President Joe Biden’s administration would vociferously oppose such a move, and may even restrict Five Eyes intelligence sharing if the UK went down that road.
People close to Sunak say he feels he has momentum this month after his Brexit gamble paid off and now he’s doing the same on immigration. Given the state of the polls, they say, betting the house is his only real option to survive an election expected next year.
–With assistance from Emily Ashton.
(Adds suspension of Gary Lineker in third paragraph)
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