The Swiss economy unexpectedly failed to grow in the final months of 2022 as manufacturing output contracted and exports weighed on momentum.
(Bloomberg) — The Swiss economy unexpectedly failed to grow in the final months of 2022 as manufacturing output contracted and exports weighed on momentum.
Gross domestic product stalled in the fourth quarter, according to government data published Tuesday. That falls short of the median economist prediction in a Bloomberg survey, which had anticipated a 0.1% increase.
Exports showed a significant decline of 0.9% and — despite a solid increase in chemicals and pharmaceuticals — manufacturing slumped by 0.3%. Still, against the backdrop of a strong Swiss labor market, private consumption increased 0.3%.
It’s a rare disappointing quarter for Switzerland, which held up comparatively well during the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent energy and inflation crises. Zero growth last quarter still puts it on track to dodge a recession, though economists predict a minor contraction in the current period.
The Swiss government’s most recent forecast sees the economy expanding 1% in 2023 and 1.6% next year. That’s more optimistic than the Swiss National Bank’s December projections, which predicts a 0.5% expansion in 2023. SNB President Thomas Jordan recently even lowered expectations, saying Switzerland would need to be “lucky” to register any growth this year.
Switzerland’s economy is driven by a strong labor market, with unemployment at a 20-year low and no signs of weakening. Government data published last week showed that the number of open jobs increased by almost 20% during 2022. While this boosts consumption, it has central bank officials worrying that wages might pick up, entrenching inflation.
–With assistance from Harumi Ichikura and Kristian Siedenburg.
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