Rishi Sunak is gearing up for the toughest political test of his premiership as he prepares to unveil a deal with the European Union that risks a stand-off with Northern Ireland unionists and members of his own party.
(Bloomberg) — Rishi Sunak is gearing up for the toughest political test of his premiership as he prepares to unveil a deal with the European Union that risks a stand-off with Northern Ireland unionists and members of his own party.
The prime minister is pushing for a solution to the post-Brexit impasse in Northern Ireland and a reset in relations with the EU, the UK’s biggest trading partner, more than three years after Britain formally left the bloc.
Sunak also hopes to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to drop its veto on the formation of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive, which it has blocked for more than a year in protest at the so-called protocol, the portion of the Brexit deal governing the region’s unique place in the EU and UK’s trading markets.
Plans have been drawn up for an announcement as soon as this week after a diplomatic flurry that saw Sunak meet Northern Irish parties and hold talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The timing of a final agreement remains fluid, though, with Sunak’s spokesman, Max Blain, telling reporters on Monday that “intensive work” will be carried out in the coming days. There is no specific deadline for talks to conclude, Blain said.
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will talk on Monday afternoon with European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic, Blain said.
Pro-Brexit Conservative MPs and a senior DUP lawmaker warned against imposing any deal on unionists, while opposition leader Keir Starmer challenged Sunak to push ahead with support from Labour MPs.
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While Sunak has secured 90% of his demands in the talks with the EU, he hasn’t convinced the bloc that the European Court of Justice should have no role in Northern Ireland, people close to the UK side said. The EU, for its part, has assured member states that the integrity of its single market and the ECJ will be respected.
Government whips switched course over the weekend, contacting Conservative MPs for their views on the shape of a final agreement. That lit up WhatsApp group chats of Tory MPs, reviving old Brexit debates and focusing on any future role for the ECJ.
Sammy Wilson, the DUP chief whip, in charge of party management, was asked by Sky News on Monday if he expects a deal this week.
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“No I don’t,” Wilson replied. Sunak “realises that there are barriers and hills to climb. He knows the kind of issues that have to be dealt with. I hope he does go into negotiations with a full understanding of what is required,” he said.
Brexit Purists
Bernard Jenkin, a pro-Brexit Tory MP, told Times Radio that any agreement that did not have the support of the DUP would be “disastrous” and would “cement in place an agreement that has destroyed power-sharing in Northern Ireland.”
The DUP remains in close communication with the European Research Group of hardline Brexit Tory MPs. The ERG plans to meet Tuesday, and though some members have privately conceded they don’t have the power to block any new agreement, they could undermine Sunak’s ability to gain DUP endorsement.
A government official told Bloomberg there were three possible outcomes: that the DUP agrees to a deal and it proceeds unopposed; a more likely scenario in which some DUP and ERG MPs oppose an agreement but can’t block it; and one in which Sunak attempts further negotiations, largely for show.
He’s likely to win any vote in the House of Commons regardless, if he chooses to hold one, because the opposition Labour Party has offered Sunak “political cover” to get a deal over the line.
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Speaking to reporters on a visit to Thurrock in Essex, Labour’s Starmer reiterated a promise to vote with the government, and said there was a “window of opportunity” to resolve problems with the protocol.
“The UK and the EU have obviously edged closer together. The question now is whether the prime minister is strong enough to get it through his own backbenches,” Starmer said.
Relying on Labour votes to solve a highly charged political issue would be “desperately ill-advised,” according to Simon Clarke, who served in cabinet during Liz Truss’s brief tenure in Downing Street. “Let’s not go down that route,” he told Times Radio.
Separately, former premier Boris Johnson continues to be a thorn in Sunak’s side. Johnson believes Sunak would be making a great mistake if he drops the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill — legislation to allow ministers to unilaterally rewrite the bulk of the protocol — a person close to him said.
Until Johnson has seen the text of a deal he can’t come to a judgment on the terms of the agreement, the person said.
Even so, Sunak’s ability to manage the fragile politics of the next week could yet end in triumph or chaos.
–With assistance from Alex Wickham, Joe Mayes, Morwenna Coniam and Peter O’Dwyer.
(Updates with details from Sunak’s spokesman from fifth paragraph.)
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