US stock-index futures fell amid signs central banks will turn more hawkish and as Wall Street banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley posted disappointing results.
(Bloomberg) — US stock-index futures fell amid signs central banks will turn more hawkish and as Wall Street banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley posted disappointing results.
Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes slipped at least 0.2% each as US traders returned from a holiday. Goldman slid in premarket New York trading after posting fourth-quarter net revenue below expecations. Morgan Stanley slipped after lower-than-projected equities trading revenue. Whirlpool Corp. fell as sales numbers missed. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declined amid a muted demand outlook for copper.
Earnings are developing into a challenge for investors who’ve had their expectations for a pause in central-bank tightening damped. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said interest rates will have to move into restrictive territory to bring inflation back to target. BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said he saw no chance of policy easing this year. Data including a record increase in UK wages signaled further rate hikes are necessary.
“We’ve just hit pause and I am sure there’s some profit taking,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We‘re into the earnings season which likely brings with it risks and volatility. If you run a risk-parity or 60/40 book, you’ve done brilliantly already this year. It seems prudent to trim some risk.”
Several Federal Reserve officials will be speaking this week, providing more clues on their policy priorities. The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting kicks off in Davos, Switzerland, with speakers including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and the International Monetary Fund’s Kristalina Georgieva.
US corporate earnings may set the tone for traders this week as the reporting season moves up a gear. Of the 33 companies on the S&P 500 that have posted earnings so far, 25 have beaten analysts’ expectations. While it’s still early days in the reporting season, the nascent trend lags buoyant surprises of earlier quarters. UBS Wealth Management expects “quite a bit of downside here on the earnings” in the US, according to Hartmut Issel, head of Asia Pacific equities.
Goldman Sachs fell 1.7% in early New York trading after missing estimates. The results reflected lower net revenues in asset & wealth management as well as global banking & markets. Morgan Stanley was marginally lower.
Whirlpool fell 6% after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of $4.90 billion, compared with forecasts for $5.15 billion. Freeport McMoRan slid 2.6%. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts predict copper could fall to $8,000 a ton from more than $9,000 now as physical demand indicators are weakening.
The benchmark gauge for European shares fell for the first time in five days. Ocado Group Plc tumbled more than 6% after the online retailer forecast a decline in earnings from its joint venture with Marks & Spencer Group Plc, reflecting tight competition for grocery spending in the UK.
The dollar traded lower after swinging between gains and losses at least 16 times on Tuesday. The greenback is trading near the lowest level since April, with China’s reopening bringing back the risk-on sentiment and sparking the best start to a year for global equities in records going back to 1988.
The 10-year Treasury yield increased 4 basis points, while the two-year rate was little changed. Bonds across Europe fell. Oil contracts traded marginally higher as traders weighed the chances of a revival in Chinese demand after the nation’s growth data was published.
Stocks trading in Hong Kong and mainland China closed in the red after China said its economic growth last year slowed as Covid restrictions hammered activity. But better-than-forecast fourth quarter and December data add to optimism it may be primed for a recovery.
Shares rose in Japan, while the yen slightly fell against the dollar as traders weighed the prospects of a possible change in policy by the Bank of Japan on Wednesday. The nation’s 10-year yield climbed above the central bank’s ceiling for a third day as traders added to wagers that it will adjust its yield-curve control policy.
Key events this week:
- Earnings to include: Charles Schwab, Discover Financial, Goldman Sachs, Interactive Brokers, Investor AB, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Prologis, State Street
- US Empire State manufacturing survey, Tuesday
- Fed’s John Williams to speak, Tuesday
- Euro-zone CPI, Wednesday
- US retail sales, PPI, industrial production, business inventories, MBA mortgage applications, cross-border investment, Wednesday
- Bank of Japan rate decision, Wednesday
- Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, Wednesday
- Fed speakers include Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan and Patrick Harker, Wednesday
- US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed index, Thursday
- ECB account of its December policy meeting and President Christine Lagarde on a panel in Davos, Thursday
- Fed speakers include Susan Collins and John Williams, Thursday
- Japan CPI, Friday
- China loan prime rates, Friday
- US existing home sales, Friday
- IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva and ECB’s Lagarde speak in Davos, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 7:40 a.m. New York time
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
- The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1%
- The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
- The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0842
- The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2262
- The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 128.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $21,265.38
- Ether fell 0.6% to $1,570.54
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.54%
- Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.18%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 3.43%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $80.47 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,914 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar and Richard Henderson.
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