Stocks, Bonds Drop as Traders Weigh Data, Fedspeak: Markets Wrap

Stocks and Treasuries dropped after Federal Reserve officials continued to be hawkish and a slew of data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures.

(Bloomberg) — Stocks and Treasuries dropped after Federal Reserve officials continued to be hawkish and a slew of data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures. 

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell after a gauge of manufacturing improved for the first time in six months. Investors balked as prices-paid measures also rose. Treasury yields stayed higher, with the 10-year rate topping the closely watched 4% level. Fed swaps are now pricing in a peak policy rate of 5.5% in September. A dollar index dropped.

Investors remained cautious after Fed officials reinforced their hawkish stance on Wednesday. Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic called for continued rate hikes to above 5% to make sure inflation doesn’t pick up again. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, meanwhile, said he’s concerned that there isn’t much of an indication that the central bank’s rate hikes are slowing down the services sector. 

“The markets crossed the fine line between expectations and wishful thinking,” said Deborah Cunningham, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “But investors checked that fantasy within the shortest month of the year. Indeed, change can come quickly after acceptance.” 

A slew of data showing that China’s economy is on track for a stronger recovery had briefly buoyed US stock futures before markets opened. But that bounce didn’t sustain when the trading session began.

“This is a China story. This is not a global growth story,” Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley told Bloomberg Television. “So yes, it’s very good for China equities and maybe some Asian economies that can, that can gear off of that. But not so much the US stock market, which isn’t that geared to China growth.”

Bonds in Europe also fell amid continued evidence that further tightening is needed to tamp down on inflation. The latest data showed an unexpected acceleration in German inflation in February, further complicating the European Central Bank’s task after overshoots this week in other parts of the continent. A 4% ECB terminal rate is also now fully priced with rates forecast to rise through February 2024. 

“February has poured cold water on hopes that policy makers may quickly tame inflation toward target,” Generali Investments strategists wrote in their monthly outlook. “We now have even higher peak rates in our books.”

Key events this week:

  • Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
  • US initial jobless claims, Thursday
  • Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 11:07 a.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3%
  • The MSCI World index fell 0.3%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
  • The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0665
  • The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.1997
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 136.16 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $23,674.75
  • Ether rose 3% to $1,653.9

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.00%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.72%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.83%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $77.49 a barrel
  • Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,845.80 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Alice Atkins, Cecile Gutscher, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.

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