European stocks posted modest gains and US equity futures retreated as investors positioned themselves for an action-packed week, including the release of US consumer price data that may confirm the inflation battle isn’t over, dashing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate pivot.
(Bloomberg) — European stocks posted modest gains and US equity futures retreated as investors positioned themselves for an action-packed week, including the release of US consumer price data that may confirm the inflation battle isn’t over, dashing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate pivot.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher, as food and beverage stocks gained while real estate underperformed. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped by about 0.2% following the worst week of the year on Wall Street for stocks and bonds. An Asian equity benchmark headed for its lowest close in more than a month.
Treasuries were rangebound on Monday following a selloff in US government debt Friday that pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield by seven basis points. A gauge of dollar strength climbed.
Investors are reassessing how high US interest rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. That has fueled bets for the Fed rate to peak at 5.2% in July, up from less than 5% a month ago.
“The next CPI report has become binary — markets will either breathe a huge sigh of relief, or risk aversion will accelerate,” said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist for Standard Chartered Plc. “The more the FOMC is compelled to extend the rate-hiking cycle and postpone rate cuts, the more likely it is that the US will experience a hard landing, requiring more aggressive rate cuts later.”
Read More: Fed’s Harker Favors Rates Above 5%, Says Soft-Landing Odds Grow
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker was the latest central banker to unveil expectations for rates to climb above 5% after a drum-beat of commentary last week that included a prediction from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari that the level would reach 5.4%.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists argued that US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes.
“While the recent move higher in front-end rates is supportive of the notion that the Fed may remain restrictive for longer than appreciated, the equity market is refusing to accept this reality,” a team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note.
Wilson — the top-ranked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey — expects deteriorating fundamentals, along with Fed hikes that are coming at the same time as an earnings recession, to drive equities to an ultimate low this spring. “Price is about as disconnected from reality as it’s been during this bear market,” the strategists said.
The yen weakened past 132 per dollar after whipsawing Friday following news reports that Kazuo Ueda would be picked to become the Bank of Japan’s next governor. Investors initially interpreted the decision as a potentially hawkish choice. Those gains were trimmed after Ueda spoke to reporters and said the BOJ’s stimulus should stay in place. Japan’s government is set to officially announce the nomination of the new BOJ governor on Tuesday.
Traders are also keeping a keen eye on geopolitical developments after the Pentagon shot down an unidentified object that it tracked over Michigan, according to US officials familiar with the matter. This was the fourth time in eight days a balloon or high-flying craft has been shot down over the US or Canada.
Elsewhere, oil fell as Russia’s plan to curb supply in retaliation for western sanctions was offset by concerns about slowing global growth. Gold edged lower.
Key events:
- India CPI, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the American Bankers Association Monday
- US CPI, UK jobless claims, Eurozone GDP, New York Fed President John Williams gives the keynote speech at New York Bankers Association event Tuesday
- Japan’s new BOJ governor nomination Tuesday
- US retail sales, UK CPI Wednesday
- US jobless claims, Australia unemployment, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at Global Interdependence Center event Thursday
- France CPI, Russia GDP Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 8:20 a.m. London time
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
- The euro was little changed at $1.0675
- The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 132.36 per dollar
- The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 6.8334 per dollar
- The British pound was little changed at $1.2052
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $21,819.95
- Ether rose 0.3% to $1,516.32
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.74%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.39%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.42%
Commodities
- Brent crude fell 0.8% to $85.70 a barrel
- Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,862.97 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson and Youkyung Lee.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.