Romania’s annual inflation slowed for a fifth straight month, pushing the rate below 10% for the first time since February last year.
(Bloomberg) — Romania’s annual inflation slowed for a fifth straight month, pushing the rate below 10% for the first time since February last year.
Consumer prices rose 9.4% from a year earlier in July, compared with 10.25% in June, the statistics office said Friday. That’s below the 9.7% median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Prices were up 0.2% from the previous month.
With price growth slowing steadily, the National Bank of Romania left the benchmark rate unchanged at 7% earlier this week. But Governor Mugur Isarescu ruled out a start to monetary easing in the next few months with inflation seen ending the year above the current level of the key rate.
The central bank increased its inflation forecast to 7.5% at the end of this year from a previous estimate of 7.1% and sees the rate falling to 4.4% at the end of 2024. The government’s plans to contain a widening budget deficit by spending cuts and potential tax changes, as well as the war in neighboring Ukraine, have increased risks for the current outlook.
- “The very elevated inflation dynamics that we foresee materializing in the next quarters is likely to delay the initiation of the key rate cutting cycle by the Romanian central bank relative to the other central banks in the region,” said Nicolae Covrig, a Bucharest-based economist at Raiffeisen Bank.
- “So, we expect the central bank to start reducing the monetary policy rate in May 2024.”
–With assistance from Joel Rinneby.
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