Poland’s pro-European Union opposition appears to have seized the momentum in the final stretch of an election campaign that’s due to culminate on Oct. 15.
(Bloomberg) — Poland’s pro-European Union opposition appears to have seized the momentum in the final stretch of an election campaign that’s due to culminate on Oct. 15.
Days after hundreds of thousands of Civic Platform supporters took to the streets of Warsaw, an Oct. 3-4 opinion poll from IBRiS pollster showed the ruling Law & Justice’s lead has narrowed to 5 percentage points from around 8 percentage points in the previous survey published on Sept. 27.
An internal poll disclosed on Thursday by Civic Platform leader and former European Council President Donald Tusk showed the ruling party’s advantage has dropped to less than 1 percentage point.
Poland is now looking likely to face an extended period of uncertainty after the election. If the polls prove to be accurate, the Civic Platform will probably seek to form a coalition with two other opposition parties, though the chances for one of them — the conservative Third Way alliance — to enter parliament are hanging in the balance.
Meanwhile, Law & Justice may struggle to hold on to an outright majority to stay in power for a third term. It’s likely to make overtures toward the far-right Confederation party, which has so far ruled out any coalition talks.
Read more: Zloty’s Next Phase Shaped by Election After Cautious Rate Cut
The election will decide whether Poland, the biggest of the European Union’s eastern member states, will mend fences with Brussels and be able to access billions of euros in aid currently suspended over rule-of-law concerns. The country is also a key hub for military aid to Ukraine, while a recent spat with Kyiv threatened to undermine fraying Western unity.
With the race going down to the wire, Tusk will square off with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during a televised debate on Monday. The ruling party has repeatedly accused Tusk of presiding over high unemployment when he was a premier in 2007-2014 and described him as a pawn of neighboring Germany.
In Slovakia, opinion polls also showed the race tightening just days before the general election only for the party of Robert Fico, who campaigned for ending military aid for Ukraine, to win the vote last Saturday.
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