Oil Rises as Russian Exports Slow, Rate Hikes Expected to Stop

Oil rose amid risk-on sentiment in broader markets and signs that Russia is making good on its pledge to curb supplies.

(Bloomberg) — Oil rose amid risk-on sentiment in broader markets and signs that Russia is making good on its pledge to curb supplies.

Russia’s seaborne crude flows sank to a six-month low in the latest four-week period. Meanwhile, stocks advanced as a weaker-than-expected US retail report prompted speculation that the Federal reserve will slow, or stop, future rate hikes after its July meeting. West Texas Intermediate settled near $76 a barrel after dropping in the previous two sessions on the return of a major Libyan oil field and concerns about China’s economy.

As Russian oil is becoming more expensive, buyers such as India are now considering boosting purchases from traditional sources in the Middle East instead. Adding to supply shortages, Moscow aims to reduce its third-quarter crude export plans by 2.1 million tons, in line with its previously stated pledge to cut overseas shipments by 500,000 barrels a day. Earlier pledges by Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut back production helped spark the rally in crude that started in late June.

To be sure, the market remains focused on the outlook for consumption, and crude prices are still down for the year, partly on doubts over China’s economic recovery. Brent’s prompt spread weakened to 13 cents in backwardation, which is hovering near the lowest in a month. Several Wall Street banks have slashed their Chinese growth forecasts, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the risk of global ripple effects.

To get Bloomberg’s Energy Daily newsletter direct into your inbox, click here.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com