Drivers on the US East Coast are at risk of rising gasoline prices this summer driving season as strikes in France and sanctions on Russia threaten to limit shipments from the region’s biggest overseas source of fuel.
(Bloomberg) — Drivers on the US East Coast are at risk of rising gasoline prices this summer driving season as strikes in France and sanctions on Russia threaten to limit shipments from the region’s biggest overseas source of fuel.
Europe’s gasoline exports to the US — and, to a lesser extent, West Africa — are set to decline by as much as 100,000 barrels a day from March to April, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. With US gasoline stockpiles at a nine-year seasonal low and demand up from a year earlier, the drop may tighten supplies and boost prices just as the driving season begins.
The prospect of higher gasoline prices may still pose a challenge for President Joe Biden, whose historic release of emergency crude stockpiles helped bring down prices and cool inflation last year. This year, the president can delay buying back the crude, but the reserve has been depleted and a surprise production cut that OPEC+ announced Sunday has sent crude soaring, threatening to overwhelm efforts to contain costs.
Strikes at refineries across France — a regular gasoline exporter to the US — may help cut the country’s typical average production by more than half to just 80,000 barrels a day, WoodMac estimates. Even when the strikes end, the plants will need time to resume full production.
Already, New York gasoline futures shifted into the most bullish structure — known as backwardation — since November, a sign of supply tightness in May. US imports of European gasoline have slowed to 189,000 barrels a day in March, the lowest since May 2020, according to data from Kpler.
The supply squeeze means US drivers could face another summer of unusually high pump prices. At $3.50 a gallon as of Thursday, the national average was already 21% higher than the five-year average for this time of year, according to auto club AAA.
Read More: Exxon Mobil Resumes Fuel Deliveries From French Oil Refinery
Adding to Europe’s refinery woes is the unexpected shutdown of a key gasoline-making unit at BP Plc’s Netherlands plant. Rotterdam — where the facility is located — is a major port for gasoline shipments to the US.
Meanwhile, the European Union’s recent ban on almost all seaborne petroleum product imports from Russia means the country’s supplies of heavier naphtha — traditionally used to make high-octane blending components like reformate and alkylate — have halted.
“Prices for these components remain high, which is having a negative impact on blending margins and production, exports of gasoline,” said Mark Williams, research director for short-term oils at WoodMac.
The cost of hiring tankers to ship fuels across the Atlantic is also restricting trade flows. The rate is now more than $45,000 a day — by far the highest for this time of year since at least 2009.
The New York Harbor region is most vulnerable to supply disruption from Europe, in large part due to limited pipeline access to the abundance of fuel made on the Gulf Coast. Demand to cram gasoline on the fully booked Colonial pipeline is so high that shippers are paying a 2-cent-a-gallon premium for additional space.
Still, European supply issues and high freight rates may not be enough to significantly slow imports to the East Coast. That’s because traders will ultimately respond to price signals.
“Everything has a price,” said Hedi Grati, head of Europe/CIS refining & marketing at S&P Global Commodity Insights. If New York Harbor prices go up, so would the incentive to ship there — “so it’s not necessarily so that the whole flow will dry up.”
What’s more, even with the supply challenges, the potential gain in gasoline prices is limited by lower underlying crude oil prices compared with this time last year.
–With assistance from Joe Aboussleman.
(Adds gasoline spread in fifth paragraph)
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