Ahead of India’s 2024 general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition and his political opponents are racing to woo regional parties, a battle that could shape the outcome of the world’s largest democratic vote.
(Bloomberg) — Ahead of India’s 2024 general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition and his political opponents are racing to woo regional parties, a battle that could shape the outcome of the world’s largest democratic vote.
India’s opposition coalition — an alliance of two dozen parties — is holding a strategy meeting on Tuesday in the city of Bengaluru. The goal is to pull together enough support to overpower the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. Modi’s National Democratic Alliance has a similar event planned in New Delhi on the same day, when 38 parties will gather.
Apart from six national parties, the country has more than 2,500 “unrecognized parties.” Though hyper-local, these groups hold formidable collective power during national elections, when regional politicians consolidate vote banks and throw their weight in with larger parties.
Between 1989 and 2014, India was run by coalition governments. Until Modi rose to power, no single party won enough votes to form a parliamentary majority. This time around, Asim Ali, a New Delhi-based political researcher and columnist, expects both major national parties — the BJP and the Indian National Congress — to lean heavily on regional leaders.
The BJP needs the support of local parties “after ten years of a mixed governance record,” he said. And Congress “realizes that it cannot compete with the BJP on its own steam.”
The Congress party — which is run by the famous Gandhi-Nehru dynasty — has molded its general election strategy around highlighting a mix of economic and human rights pressures under Modi’s administration.
The party is looking to build on momentum from its May state election victory in Karnataka, home to some of India’s most prized technology companies. Analysts attributed the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka to high inflation and unemployment.
“We are all united by a common purpose to protect democracy in this country, to ensure the constitutional rights and independence of our institutions,” said K. C. Venugopal, a general secretary of the Congress party. “We are very sure that this is going to be a game changer of the Indian political scenario.”
The BJP has pushed back on that messaging, arguing that the party has made big strides in improving India’s infrastructure and attracting foreign business to the nation. Party brass say the opposition, by contrast, has weak leadership that can’t compete with Modi’s charisma or vision.
“Their only aim is to grab power and serve their own interests,” said J.P. Nadda, president of the BJP, at a press conference on Monday.
Modi remains an asset for the BJP. Polls place his approval rating consistently above 60%, though Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader in the Congress party, is gaining ground, according to a recent survey. About 43% of respondents in that survey said a BJP-led coalition would return Modi to power for a third term, while 29% said Congress party would win.
Even with those odds, India’s opposition still believes the electoral map could work in their favor. Non-BJP parties control about half of India’s 30 states, particularly in the east and south, where the BJP doesn’t have much of a foothold. Those parties secured more than 55% of the national vote in the 2019 elections.
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