(Reuters) -J.P.Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs raised their terminal rate forecast for the Bank of England to 5.75% on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point hike by the central bank.
Earlier in the day, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to raise its main interest rate from 4.5% to 5%, the highest since 2008 and the largest increase since February, following stickier inflation and wage growth since its policymakers met last in May.
Goldman Sachs expects a second 50 bps hike in August and a final quarter point hike in September.
Deutsche Bank, which expects three more rate hikes by November, said it was “wrong” in expecting the MPC to keep its guidance steady and move in more “normal” sized steps and believes a 6% peak rate may be possible.
J.P.Morgan, which sees two additional rate hikes beyond August, had earlier expected the terminal rate to be at 5%, while Deutsche Bank had estimated 5.25%.
“This new policy rate level in our forecast recognizes that there is a dynamic between wages and prices that needs to be stopped, and assumes the BoE will need to hike further in order to trigger a significant weakening in the labour market,” JPM economist Allan Monks said.
(Reporting by Aniruddha Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
