Emmanuel Macron faces parliamentary brinkmanship and protests this week over his plan to raise the retirement age, with the potential for a politically bruising outcome that would shape the French president’s capacity to keep pushing a pro-business agenda.
(Bloomberg) — Emmanuel Macron faces parliamentary brinkmanship and protests this week over his plan to raise the retirement age, with the potential for a politically bruising outcome that would shape the French president’s capacity to keep pushing a pro-business agenda.
The test begins on Wednesday as a group of 14 lawmakers from the National Assembly and Senate meets behind closed doors to finalize a single bill to be presented for a vote in both houses. At the same time, unions will gather their forces for another day of strikes and protests against the proposed changes.
Macron then has a choice: push ahead on Thursday with a vote that needs the support of wavering opposition lawmakers to pass, or trigger a decree process that rams a bill through without a vote, which could in turn spark a radicalization of street protests.
His attempt to raise France’s minimum retirement age by two years to 64 has become a defining clash of Macron’s second term. The investment banker-turned-president says change is vital to avoid ballooning deficits in the public system and tackle low employment rates that hobble the French economy.
But labor unions remain vehemently opposed to the move. They have organized successive strikes and protests since January, arguing that changing age thresholds will disproportionately affect the least well-off, in particular those who began working early in life without going to college.
While the protests and strikes have been largely peaceful, some unions have called for more radical action. Polls show a large majority of French people still support them after two months of sporadic disruption.
Macron’s government is treading carefully. In the buildup to the parliamentary endgame, ministers say the only option they are working on is putting the bill to a vote. For that, they are lobbying the conservative Republicains, many of whom have remained unclear about whether they will support Macron.
“We have to put all our strength into getting a majority this week at the National Assembly,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on France Info radio Monday. “This is important for the parliamentary majority and the country.”
Still, the government hasn’t ruled out using the decree process as a last resort, called article 49.3 after its location in the French constitution. Philippe Martinez, the leader of the CGT union, has warned doing so would justify further industrial action and would constitute a serious threat to democracy.
“It’s not what people want — democracy is about listening to the people,” Martinez said on BFM TV.
Resorting to the 49.3 decree may be the only way to pass the reform given how risky a vote would be, according to Melody Mock-Gruet, an expert in parliamentary affairs. “Yet, forcing the bill through would be an admission of failure,” she said.
In Macron’s favor, however, there are signs that the protest movement is losing momentum with Saturday’s marches recording the lowest turnout yet at 368,000, according to government figures. That compares with a peak at just over 1.3 million a few weeks earlier.
Moreover, French people are increasingly expect the pension reform to go ahead irrespective of protests. An Elabe poll of 1,003 adults for BFM TV March 9 and 10 showed 78% expect the bill to pass, up 14 points in a week.
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