Laurentian Bank of Canada surged the most since 1989 Wednesday after kicking off a strategic review looking into potential buyers.
(Bloomberg) — Laurentian Bank of Canada surged the most since 1989 Wednesday after kicking off a strategic review looking into potential buyers.
The Montreal-based lender, Canada’s eighth-largest by assets, jumped as much as 44% following the announcement, made after the close Tuesday. Shares pared gains later in the session, trading up about 27% as of 1:36 p.m. Toronto time.
Canadian banking analysts have already begun speculating on potential suitors. National Bank of Canada said the each of the country’s six largest banks will evaluate a possible acquisition, with Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank likely the most motivated buyers. Veritas Investment Research pointed to National Bank as the top candidate.
“Acquiring Laurentian Bank would increase National Bank’s share in its home market,” Veritas’s Nigel D’Souza wrote in a note to clients in which he upgraded Laurentian’s shares to “buy.” An “opportunity to add high return on equity Canadian banking assets is too good to pass up.”
Read More: Laurentian Bank Conducts Review With Potential for Sale
D’Souza noted that Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal are less likely candidates with both engaged in separate takeovers. RBC is working through the acquisition of HSBC Canada, while BMO recently completed its purchase of Bank of the West. Toronto-Dominion may have a strong capital buffer after its deal for First Horizon Corp. fell through, but D’Souza noted the bank is still dealing with the fallout from the failed takeover.
National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine, who upgraded his recommendation on the stock to outperform and raised its price target to C$51, pointed to Scotiabank’s desire to gain more market share in French-speaking Quebec as a potential impetus for a deal. Dechaine estimates that owning Laurentian could give any of Canada’s largest banks a single-digit boost to their earnings per share.
Read More: Laurentian Bank Surges as Review Prompts Deal Spec: Street Wrap
Not all bank analysts expect a deal to get done.
Scotiabank’s Meny Grauman, who rates Laurentian “sector perform” with a price target of C$38, wrote that the bank’s relative valuation lags peers, and the timing was off given how tough the operating environment is becoming for Canadian lenders.
Dechaine also noted that Laurentian has a weaker core deposit business than many of its larger rivals, as well as its above-average exposure to commercial real estate assets, which have struggled post-pandemic.
“We believe that the strategic rationale for acquiring Laurentian Bank is not very strong, and any deal for the bank must contend with significant political and retention risks given the regional dynamics of the country,” Grauman wrote.
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