South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol staked enormous political capital on drawing closer to the US, only to see the White House unveil policies that hurt some of his country’s biggest companies. Now he’s finally got something concrete to show for it.
(Bloomberg) — South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol staked enormous political capital on drawing closer to the US, only to see the White House unveil policies that hurt some of his country’s biggest companies. Now he’s finally got something concrete to show for it.
Yoon was rewarded with a greater say in how America deploys its nuclear umbrella and assurances it would be used to retaliate against a North Korean strike in the deal he struck with President Joe Biden at the White House on a state visit Wednesday.
The agreement could serve as a much-needed win for the South Korean leader, who has been trying to turn around an economy that came close to recession at the start of the year. His support rate recently fell to its lowest level in about six months, dragged down by his response to leaked documents purportedly showing the US spied on its South Korean ally.
Read: North Korean Nuclear Attack Would End Kim Regime, Biden Says
The pact also comes with risks, with North Korea almost certain to step up its threats against South Korea. Questions are likely to be asked about how effective the deal’s new South Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group would be at coordinating a response to Pyongyang.
Biden, who stressed that a North Korean nuclear attack on the US and its allies would be the end of Kim Jong Un’s regime, was able to receive assurances that South Korea won’t embark on its own nuclear weapons program.
“On substance, we really need to pause and assess what concrete deliverables each side walked away with,” said Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency, who now works at US-based management consulting firm LMI.
Here are a few takeaways from the summit:
Nuclear Sharing
While Yoon won a commitment from the Biden administration to strengthen its deterrence against North Korea, the ultimate decision on the use of nuclear weapon still remains with the US. The so-called Washington Declaration that grew out the summit involves South Korea more in strategic planning for nuclear contingencies. But there will be no deployment of US nuclear arms in the country.
Allies such as Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Italy and Turkey host US nuclear weapons on their soil, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
This may not be enough to placate some of the right-wing elements in Yoon’s camp who were pushing for a nuclear arms program and swing voters who want South Korea to be able to decide if nuclear weapons are detonated on the peninsula.
“It is essential to include practical operating conditions that involve Korea in the actual decision-making process, to address national demands among the Korean people over the nuclear sharing,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former security strategy secretary in South Korea’s presidential Blue House.
Economics
The public statements from Yoon and Biden did little to address economic concerns seen by Seoul. Yoon has been looking to protect the biggest players in his country’s export-driven economy from moves by the White House to subsidize US-made electric vehicles and curb the sale of advanced chip equipment to China. The US moves are part of a wider strategy to deprive the world’s second-biggest economy of cutting-edge technologies that could threaten America’s status as a preeminent power.
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Submarines
The declaration includes more regular deployments of nuclear-armed US submarines to protect South Korea. Having a sub off the coast can reduce the time it takes for a nuclear response to North Korea to a matter of a few minutes from about the 30 minutes or more it might take to send the weapons from other parts of Asia. The move is certain to raise the ire of North Korea, which has demanded the removal of all atomic assets and has almost no defenses against US submarines operating in international waters.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced a potential deployment that could bring American weapons closer its shores, saying it undermines the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. “What the US has done smacks of Cold War mentality and provokes bloc confrontation,” spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters during a regular news briefing in Beijing.
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Ukraine
The two leaders in their public statements avoided comments about military aid to Ukraine. This could have stoked further embarrassment about the leaked documents that dented Yoon’s support as his government tried to play down the allegations of spying and US pressure to supply artillery to Kyiv. Yoon had indicated prior to the trip that he may be open to changing policy about providing lethal aid to Ukraine under certain conditions.
Read: Russia’s War Puts Focus on Huge Korean Artillery Stockpiles
North Korea
The hard-line comments on North Korea indicated Yoon and Biden may be moving away from the long-stated policy of seeking the complete, verifiable and irreversible end of Pyongyang’s atomic arsenal and instead warned any use by Kim’s regime would be suicidal. Yoon and Biden have voiced concern about the rapprochement of their predecessors that resulted in direct talks between Kim and former President Donald Trump. The discussions produced no steps to wind down Kim’s nuclear arsenal, which only grew larger as the talks sputtered.
Read: North Korea Tells G-7 That It Will Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons
Taiwan
South Korea made its strongest statement yet on the Taiwan Strait by expressing strong opposition to any unilateral actions in the region. The comments indirectly targeted China, which sees the democratically run island as part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring it into its fold. The declaration marked the first time South Korea agreed to include the phrase “opposing any changes of the status quo by force” in a joint statement from the bilateral summit regarding Taiwan.
–With assistance from Colum Murphy.
(Updates with comment from China’s foreign ministry)
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