Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party eked out wins in four of five Japanese by-elections held Sunday, as speculation simmers over whether he will call an early general election.
(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party eked out wins in four of five Japanese by-elections held Sunday, as speculation simmers over whether he will call an early general election.
The premier’s Liberal Democratic Party kept the three seats it previously held of the five, including the constituency in the southwestern prefecture of Yamaguchi vacated when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated last year. It also picked up a fourth, an upper house seat in Oita Prefecture.
The victories may add to momentum for Kishida to call a national election after hosting the Group of Seven summit May 19-21 in Hiroshima. Still, the LDP won by a slim margin in some constituencies and lost in Wakayama, where Kishida had campaigned for his party’s candidate and faced a pipe-bomb attack earlier this month.
“While it was a close call, the LDP won,” said independent political analyst Harumi Arima. “It’s quite possible that he will announce an election after the summit and before the end of the parliamentary session,” he added. The current session is scheduled to end June 21.
An early poll could play into monetary policy, as the Bank of Japan would likely face pressure to avoid any changes during the campaign that could disrupt markets. The bank holds its first policy meeting under new Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday and Friday.
Among the LDP’s successful candidates was a 34-year-old woman of Uyghur heritage who has said she wants to break down the “old boys’ club” of Japanese politics. The multilingual Arfiya Eri, representing a constituency in Chiba, near Tokyo, will become one of a tiny number of naturalized Japanese lawmakers.
“We were able to increase the number of seats for the ruling LDP,” Kishida told reporters Monday. “I take this as encouragement to push through with the policy issues we have raised.” He denied he was thinking of calling a general election now.
While Japan’s lower house term doesn’t end until 2025, renewing his mandate could help Kishida keep his party in line as he negotiates a series of difficult policy decisions. Among them are how the deeply indebted country will fund a pledged 60% increase in defense spending amid rising regional threats, as well as a planned doubling of outlays on children and families intended to stem a fall in the nation’s birthrate.
Support for Kishida’s cabinet has recovered in recent weeks, helped by his visit to Ukraine last month as well as progress toward a rapprochement with South Korea. His decision to carry on campaigning after an attempted pipe-bomb attack as he was about to speak in support of a candidate in Wakayama also nudged him higher in media polls. Even so, the seat went to the opposition Japan Innovation Party.
“It’s not certain that there will be an election, because this wasn’t a landslide victory for the LDP,” said Hideo Kumano, executive economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, who added that the mixed result meant the premier and the BOJ would both favor a dovish stance that pleases the public. “At this point, the possibility of a massive policy shift is pretty much gone,” he added.
–With assistance from Keiko Ujikane, Yoshiaki Nohara and Yuki Hagiwara.
(Updates with details and comments throughout.)
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