India unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and pledged to hike again if needed, joining other central banks in pausing as global banking woes add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
(Bloomberg) — India unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and pledged to hike again if needed, joining other central banks in pausing as global banking woes add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted on Thursday to keep the repurchase rate at 6.50%, a move expected by only only six of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Bonds in India rallied across tenors after the central bank paused. The benchmark 10-year yields fell 7 basis points to 7.20%, while the rupee erased early gains and stocks edged higher.
The RBI panel also decided to retain a policy stance focused on “withdrawal of accommodation.” That had been its approach since it started tightening in May 2022.
“Our job is not yet finished and the war against inflation has to continue,” Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a live-streamed address from Mumbai. “The MPC will not hesitate to take further action as may be required in its future meetings.”
India joins a few central banks in the region — including Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia — in pausing rate hikes. The RBI’s decision comes as banking turmoil engulfed Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse Group AG, sending shock-waves around the world.
Das said it’s necessary to evaluate the cumulative impact of 250 basis points in total rate increases. India’s economy is showing some signs of cooling off amid its most aggressive tightening cycle in a decade. Growth unexpectedly slowed to 4.4% in the quarter through December.
READ: Peak Rates in India Seen by Bonds Bulls After RBI’s Rate Pause
The central bank raised its growth forecast for the fiscal year starting in April to 6.5% from 6.4% earlier, while lowering its inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.3%.
“The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to surprise the market with a rate-pause signals that growth is now the main concern, not inflation,” said Abhishek Gupta of Bloomberg Economics. Gupta was among the few economists who correctly predicted the RBI’s move.
“Rates are already restrictive and inflation should start to fall as the lagged impact of 250 basis points worth of tightening over the past year feeds through,” he said.
The move, which pauses a yearlong tightening cycle, comes even as India’s core inflation has remained elevated above 6% for 17 straight months. Disinflation is likely to be “gradual and protracted,” Das said, adding that the monetary authority stands “ready to act appropriately” to temper prices.
“The RBI has kept the door open to further action if macro conditions change,” said Aurodeep Nandi, India economist at at Nomura Holdings Inc. “We expect a policy pause hereon and 75 basis points of rate cuts, starting from October.”
Das said that India’s banking system remains healthy but the central bank will keep a “close watch” on banking sector turmoil in some developed countries.
He also announced that the RBI will help develop an onshore non-deliverable forward market for foreign exchange trading. The move will help deepen India’s forex market and provide flexibility to residents in meeting hedging requirements.
The RBI is mindful of the government’s plan for yet another record borrowing of 15.43 trillion rupees ($188 billion) in the fiscal year that began April 1, of which 58% must be completed by September. Das said the central bank will ensure completion of the FY23 borrowing program in a non-disruptive manner.
Here’s more from Das:
- We remain vigilant and ready to face the challenges with a firm commitment to price and financial stability, he said
- RBI expects CAD to moderate in both FY22-23 and 23-24
- The RBI will allow pre-sanctioned credit lines via the unified payments interface
–With assistance from Clarissa Batino, Tomoko Sato, Jeanette Rodrigues, Shwetha Sunil, Pradeep Kurup and Devidutta Tripathy.
(Updates with more details)
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