Record global temperatures amplified by climate change and El Niño will extend into the harvest seasons of Europe and the US, with data suggesting a high probability of a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
(Bloomberg) — Record global temperatures amplified by climate change and El Niño will extend into the harvest seasons of Europe and the US, with data suggesting a high probability of a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Data produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 70% likelihood that all of western Europe and parts of the US will experience well-above average temperatures between August and October. Scientists at Copernicus updated their seasonal outlook, used by farmers, insurers and utilities to help adapt to a warming planet.
Abnormally high temperatures could depress natural gas prices heading into winter, providing some economic relief to Europeans. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed prices in Europe to record highs, contributing to a cost-of-living crisis that lingers across the continent.
Preliminary Copernicus estimates suggest a 60%-70% probability that winter temperatures in western Europe also will be well-above normal.
European winter gas contracts are more expensive than those for near-term delivery, reflecting concerns about the period when heating demand rises. Though Europe is rapidly building up inventories, those can be depleted quickly if a prolonged cold snap coincides with disruptions to supply. Benchmark gas for December currently trades about 50% higher than August contracts.
The Copernicus program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts. Along with the European Space Agency, Copernicus plays a central role in the European Union’s €16 billion ($17.5 billion) effort to get ahead of climate change through accurate forecasting. It’s already the world’s biggest provider of climate data.
The data signal temperatures in the season ahead will exceed the 80th percentile when compared with relevant historical records.
Southern Europe has a 40%-50% chance of significantly higher rainfall from August through October, according to the data. That’s expected to continue into the fourth quarter across parts of the Iberian peninsula, Scandinavia and the UK.
The Atlantic Ocean’s hurricane alley, stretching from West Africa to the US Gulf Coast, is almost certain to see significantly higher rainfall.
–With assistance from Anna Shiryaevskaya.
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