German industrial production sank by the most in a year — raising the risk that Europe’s largest economy slipped into a winter recession.
(Bloomberg) — German industrial production sank by the most in a year — raising the risk that Europe’s largest economy slipped into a winter recession.
Output dropped 3.4% in March, more than the 1.5% decline economists had predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The decrease was especially pronounced in the automotive sector, according to the statistics office.
While the data arrive with a big lag and more recent releases suggest the economy overall is expanding, the unexpectedly poor manufacturing performance may yet see the first-quarter reading for gross domestic product lowered.
That means Germany could record a recession between October and March after teetering on the edge of one since Russia attacked Ukraine and inflation took off. A preliminary estimate for the first three months of 2023 was for stagnation, following a 0.5% contraction in the fourth quarter.
Monday’s numbers follow a more than 10% slump in March factory orders, with ING economist Carsten Brzeski pointing to weakness elsewhere too.
“All German macro data in March plunged,” he said in a report to clients. “Retail sales and exports dropped sharply, and together with today’s industrial-production data, have increased the chance of a downward revision to first-quarter GDP growth.”
With demand shrinking as consumers prioritize services over goods consumption, manufacturers are still relying on backlogs of work built up during the pandemic. That’s supported production of late, as supply-chain bottlenecks eased, but may not last.
Monday’s numbers signal that “the second quarter is going to be difficult for the construction sector because the backlogs are coming to an end and then the third quarter may be very difficult for the automotive sector, again because the backlogs are coming to an end, and there are no new orders,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz.
“So you see this deceleration kicking in very strongly, and Germany being the epitome of this,” he told Bloomberg Television.
Vincent Chaigneau, Generali head of Investment Strategy Research, described a two-speed economy where manufacturing is weak but services are very strong — a phenomenon that’s visible beyond just Germany.
“That’s true for Europe, that’s true globally,” he said. “We might escape recession in the central scenario contrary to the US. In Europe, we might avoid that but the economy should still come to a standstill.”
–With assistance from Craig Stirling and Anna Edwards.
(Updates with analyst in last two paragraphs.)
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