Guinea-Bissau will elect its next president on Sunday, seeking to turn the page on a tumultuous history of coups and unrest with a vote that nonetheless lacks the country’s main opposition. Some 860,000 voters will choose between 12 candidates, including incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who is favourite to land a second five-year term.Voters in the west African nation will also elect 102 members of parliament, which has remained dissolved by Embalo since December 2023.Guinea-Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with more than 40 percent of its population living in extreme poverty.Its recent history is marked by political crises including four coups, a string of attempted coups, and government collapses.”Our parents fought to liberate this country, but the heirs have destroyed everything for personal gain,” Djibril Sanha, a 30-year-old teacher, told AFP in Bissau.”We don’t want to hear about violence or coups anymore. Enough is enough.”The vote marks the first time in Guinea-Bissau’s history that the PAIGC party, which led the former Portuguese colony to independence in 1974, will be absent from the ballot.PAIGC and its candidate Domingos Simoes Pereira, who also leads the Pai Terra Ranka coalition of parties, were all three disqualified by the Supreme Court.- Post-election worries -While stability is the main issue, many of Guinea-Bissau’s 2.2 million citizens also want the next president to deliver better health care, education and infrastructure.They are also demanding jobs and reforms to address poverty, corruption, drug trafficking and other problems.Lucia Bird, an expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, doubts the legislative and presidential elections will bring greater stability given the country’s recent history.As was the case in the 2019 presidential election, she fears there will be allegations of irregularities after the vote.”In Guinea-Bissau, problems usually arise after elections”, said Bird, who directs the organisation’s Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa.Embalo’s main challengers are former president Jose Mario Vaz and opposition candidate Fernando Dias, who poses the biggest threat after receiving support from both PAIGC and Pereira.Embalo and Vaz are the only heads of state in the last 30 years to complete their terms without being killed or overthrown.- ‘Manipulation’ -With Pereira and his party barred by the Supreme Court for filing late applications, the opposition alleges “manipulation of the electoral process”.Bird believes that Embalo is in a “strong position” to win a second term.”This is partly explained by the fact that he was able to conduct his campaign without restrictions, unlike the (remaining) opposition, which faced significant limitations,” such as a lack of resources, she said.Since coming to power Embalo claims to have been the target of several coup attempts, the most recent of which, according to authorities, occurred at the end of October just hours before the start of campaigning.Embalo’s first term was marked by a number of dramatic episodes including the dissolution of parliament in 2023 and protests in early 2025 by the opposition, which said Embalo’s term expired on February 27.Campaign season has seen the candidates crisscross the country via motorcade in a peaceful atmosphere.More than 6,780 security forces, including from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Stabilisation Force, have been deployed for the vote and the post-election period.In 2019, Guinea-Bissau’s election was closely fought with Embalo and arch-rival Pereira both claiming victory. Embalo was ultimately recognised as president by ECOWAS.
