The Swiss franc was set for the longest run of losses in almost half a century, stung by interest rates that pale in comparison to Europe and the US.
(Bloomberg) — The Swiss franc was set for the longest run of losses in almost half a century, stung by interest rates that pale in comparison to Europe and the US.
The franc fell as much as 0.3% to 0.9151 per dollar on Tuesday, its weakest since April. The currency has fallen in each of the past 11 days, marking its longest losing streak since 1975.
The Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision last week to halt monetary tightening has rekindled interest in borrowing francs to invest in higher-yielding currencies. That has capped a rally that made it one of the world’s best performers earlier in the year.
“Given the policy outlook is unlikely to turn hawkish again in the near future, we think this makes it the ideal funder of carry trades across the G10 and emerging markets,” Lefteris Farmakis, a FX strategist at Barclays wrote in a note.
Since reaching a peak in late July, the franc has fallen 6.6% against the dollar. The drop is smaller against the euro, of about 1.6% in the same time frame.
Read: Franc’s Fading Rally Fuels Carry Trade Talk With Rates on Pause
The latest selling has highlighted the difference in borrowing costs between Switzerland, where they are at 1.75%, and the US, where rates have climbed to 5.5%. There’s also a sizeable gap to the euro area, with the European Central Bank earlier this month delivering another quarter-point hike to 4%.
“The franc is still suffering the impact of the SNB decision last week,” said Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of G10 FX strategy at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid. “Low yields, overvaluation and less central bank intervention should imply a weaker franc going forward.”
Cobo Garcia expects the franc to test parity with the euro and fall to around 0.94 versus the dollar in the fourth quarter.
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