The prospect that US or euro-zone policymakers might overdo tightening is now one of the most prominent threats to the global economy, according to Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran.
(Bloomberg) — The prospect that US or euro-zone policymakers might overdo tightening is now one of the most prominent threats to the global economy, according to Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran.
Speaking to Bloomberg Television, he said his outlook for a so-called “soft landing” hinges on policymakers not going overboard in their drive to tame consumer prices.
“It depends vividly on central banks’ determination to kill inflation,” he said. “One of the main risks to the economy is the risk of policy mistakes from central banks, and this toxic policy mix risk between fiscal and monetary tightening at the same time.”
Policymakers from advanced economies are still showing a concerted bias toward more interest-rate hikes, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank poised to deliver increases later this month. In Australia, officials kept borrowing costs unchanged on Tuesday, but held out the possibility of more action if needed.
For Subran, a danger of error might materialize if central banks keep policy too tight for too long. He referenced a discussion among officials at the ECB’s annual retreat last week.
“What would happen if the ECB were to hold rates high on top of adding a couple more hikes for the full of ‘24 to see the full transmission?” he asked. “This for me would qualify for a policy mistake because that would mean we would start seeing the real economy effect of this embedded tightening, so that would be already too late for the central bank to pivot.”
Memories of policy mistakes by the ECB this century still linger. Twice, in 2008 and 2011, officials began policy tightening cycles that were soon aborted.
Questioned on lingering risks to the financial system, Subran said that “they haven’t disappeared.”
“I stand by my call to be very cautious with the liquidity situation” for at least a year, he said. “I still see a lot of leverage and a lot of concern about credit risk, and to be fair a lot of financial institutions also that need to continue to do the right testing. Remember, financial accidents could also come from exogenous shocks, think about climate risks.”
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